CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Tender Branson]

CA primary results were made official and certified on Friday:

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results/statewide-direct-primary-june-5-2018/statement-vote

[Tender Branson]

Well, you shouldn't read too much into primary numbers ... but those numbers are really good for Republicans:

In the competetive 2002 and 2006 elections for Senate and Governor (2002, not 2006), primary turnout was about equal. And now it is 2/3 Republican.

In the 2006 Governor election, Bredesen got wayyyy more votes in the primary than his Republican opponents and wayyyy more votes than he did this time.

[Tender Branson]

Well, you shouldn't read too much into primary numbers ... but those numbers are really good for Republicans:

In the competetive 2002 and 2006 elections for Senate and Governor (2002, not 2006), primary turnout was about equal. And now it is 2/3 Republican.

In the 2006 Governor election, Bredesen got wayyyy more votes in the primary than his Republican opponents and wayyyy more votes than he did this time.

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

You do not understand what I am talking about.

Comparisons with the 2010 and 2014 primaries are meaningless, because those were really good for Republicans as well.

We need to compare it with the more competetive 2002 and 2006 primaries.

The primary results yesterday are much better for Republicans than those in 2002 and 2006 and more in line with those in 2010 and 2014, which produced strong GOP results in the general election.

[Tender Branson]

Well, you shouldn't read too much into primary numbers ... but those numbers are really good for Republicans:

In the competetive 2002 and 2006 elections for Senate and Governor (2002, not 2006), primary turnout was about equal. And now it is 2/3 Republican.

In the 2006 Governor election, Bredesen got wayyyy more votes in the primary than his Republican opponents and wayyyy more votes than he did this time.

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

You do not understand what I am talking about.

Comparisons with the 2010 and 2014 primaries are meaningless, because those were really good for Republicans as well.

We need to compare it with the more competetive 2002 and 2006 primaries.

The primary results yesterday are much better for Republicans than those in 2002 and 2006 and more in line with those in 2010 and 2014, which produced strong GOP results in the general election.

going all the way back to 12 and 16 years ago respectively to compare primary results is... interesting and ignores the massive shifts that have been happening in the state. Not that I disagree with any analysis that says Bredesen and Dean's chances are probably overhyped but idk Democrats just being able to roll back what has essentially been complete GOP domination is probably not going to happen. The ground shifted completely and it even going back a little bit is not a bad sign for Dems.

If you go from 70%+ GOP primaries in 2010 and 2014 to just 67% GOP primaries now, it's definitely no good sign for Democrats ... even if they made up some ground.

Many people might have forgotten about Bredesen's time in office and are not all too enthusiastic about voting for him this time.

Either that, or many GOP voters will stay home in November and Independents will bail out the Democrats too, creating a close race.

But judging from the primary results and trends from past primaries, Democrats shouldn't be too excited about November ...

[Tender Branson]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps. 

If Rs already have 70% of the primary vote and increase by another 15%, it doesn't matter if the Dems increase their 30% share by 50% ...

Rs are still massively favoured and have a huge enthusiasm advantage.

[Tender Branson]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps.  

If Rs already have 70% of the primary vote and increase by another 15%, it doesn't matter if the Dems increase their 30% share by 50% ...

Rs are still massively favoured and have a huge enthusiasm advantage.

Oh good God....

NO ONE, including the author of that tweet, even implied that Bredsen is a lock based on these numbers. Merely that, as simple math will show, Democrats are far more enthused this year. Get it?

They are just a bit more enthused than in 2010 and 2014, but not nearly as enthused as in 2006 - and even then it wasn't enough to win the Senate ...

Bottom line: many Republicans need to stay home in November and Indys need to turn out massively for Bredesen and Dean to win.

[Tender Branson]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps.  

If Rs already have 70% of the primary vote and increase by another 15%, it doesn't matter if the Dems increase their 30% share by 50% ...

Rs are still massively favoured and have a huge enthusiasm advantage.

Oh good God....

NO ONE, including the author of that tweet, even implied that Bredsen is a lock based on these numbers. Merely that, as simple math will show, Democrats are far more enthused this year. Get it?

They are just a bit more enthused than in 2010 and 2014, but not nearly as enthused as in 2006 - and even then it wasn't enough to win the Senate ...

Bottom line: many Republicans need to stay home in November and Indys need to turn out massively for Bredesen and Dean to win.

In Austria I suppose a full 50 plus percent increase is considered "just a bit more". So what I thought was simple nonsense is obviously just a cultural barrier.

Don't get nasty ...

I can do the math for you (because you seem to have the same math skills as Trump):

If you have 10 Republican bananas from 2014 and increase them by 15% ... you get 11 and a half bananas.

If you have 4 Democratic bananas from 2014 and increase them by 50% ... you get 6 bananas.

Republican bananas made up 71% of all bananas in 2014.

Republican bananas made up 66% of all bananas in 2018.

So, the 50% increase for Democrats is only relative.

[Tender Branson]

What's up with Shelby County? Despite having "100% in" the victor has flipped three times, from Boyd to Lee to Black.

Obviously Russian hackers.

[Tender Branson]

Too bad the Assad sympathizer had to win big.

Who else do you want to win ? The Islamo-Fascist so-called "rebels" ?

[Tender Branson]

Too bad the Assad sympathizer had to win big.

Who else do you want to win ? The Islamo-Fascist so-called "rebels" ?

I support neither side in the Syrian Civil War. Gabbard goes beyond merely perferring the Assad regime to the rebels. She outright supports them.

Ah ok, have not read about her preferences or support for Assad.

But she's not wrong: While Assad can be charged before the Criminal Court in the Hague later on, it's really important right now to rally around him and liquidate the remaining so-called "rebels" in the remaining areas of Syria and kick the invading megalomaniac Turks out as well to where they belong.

It would be good if the US also abandons these filthy so-called "rebels" and join the good side.

[Tender Branson]

Why do people hold the Assad thing over her head? Pelosi met with Assad so did Kerry and Obama met with Castro, Trump, Kim Jong un. Sometimes you meet with bad people in pursuit of peace.

Because she is an active apologist for the worst perpetrator of genocide in this millennium

Maybe, but as is the case in many civil wars - both sides do it. And at some point, Assad must be brought to justice for his crimes. But now, the prospect of a Syria under Assad is FAR better than a prospect of a Syria under these Islamo-Fascist Nazi fundies who call themselves "rebels" ...

It's also disgusting how a lot of the news media still refers to these bastards as rebels, without the quotation marks.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting results.

A very good night for Democrats overall and in VT, a Republican (with the same name as a porn star) has won virtually every statewide nomination (Governor, House-AL, etc).

[Tender Branson]

Updating the Senate Primary Turnout Map: Republicans win Arizona 56%-44%. Dems should be able to win the turnout battle in the 4 states that remain (MA, DE, RI, NY), so we now know what the map's forecast is: Republicans will have a net gain of 5 seats, putting their senate majority at 56-44. Congrats Krazen if this reflects reality.

O'Connor, Tripinnenni and Lamb all got outvoted in the primary by a 30-70 margin, but then either came very close in the general election or won ...

Primary numbers don't mean a lot.

[Tender Branson]

This thread needs to be unstickied, just like that special elections thread at the bottom (where nobody posted in for a month) ...