Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

H.C. Strache’s FPÖ party membership will be officially suspended tomorrow:

https://orf.at/stories/3139264

The FPÖ will make a deep cut and leave the Strache-era behind ...

(Strache could run with his own independent list next year in the Vienna state election, a move which would shock the FPÖ).

[Tender Branson]

Correct me if I'm wrong Tender, but this seems to be the biggest landslide in Austrian elections since 1945, and only the second time the margin between the 2 main parties is more than 10%.

Yes, that is true.

But it was also a very balanced vote this time:

67% voted for centrist parties (ÖVP+SPÖ+NEOS)
17% voted for leftist parties
16% voted for the FPÖ

Or if you see the ÖVP and their voters as right and half of NEOS as right, it was:

58% right
42% left

As always here.

[Tender Branson]

H.C. Strache’s FPÖ party membership will be officially suspended tomorrow:

https://orf.at/stories/3139264

The FPÖ will make a deep cut and leave the Strache-era behind ...

(Strache could run with his own independent list next year in the Vienna state election, a move which would shock the FPÖ).

Strache has set a press statement for tomorrow morning.

It is expected that he will quit the FPÖ, before they kick him out ...

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

The results are very similar to the Bavarian state election of 2018 and their results in the 2017 German federal election.

[Tender Branson]

Thanks for the maps !

Salzburg and my region (Zell am See) in general has swung heavily to the ÖVP in recent years.

The Kurz effect here is particularly strong, with the party devouring the SPÖ and FPÖ. Also the Greens are not as strong anymore as they used to be in 2013.

My region was never among the best areas for the ÖVP historically (even though it always had a Christian-Social lean) and had an above average share for the SPÖ and FPÖ when compared to national results.

But now, the ÖVP share here is as high as in the traditional ÖVP strongholds in Tyrol or Eastern Styria or North-West Lower Austria.

Pinzgau/Pongau/Lungau (my electoral district) had a big economic expansion over the past 30 years with a big increase of social services and wealth (with all the negative consequences such as high traffic and congestion) brought by tourism for example. Maybe that is a reason why.

[Tender Branson]

Wow! ÖVP is larger than SPÖ and FPÖ togheter!

Never happened before, presumably?

Never.

And not only that: SPÖ+FPÖ+(BZÖ) (the working class parties) always had a majority together, until now.

There are 2 main reasons why this is not the case now:

* SPÖ+FPÖ both had scandals or a very ineffective campaign this time
* the economic situation in the country is good, with low unemployment and a budget surplus. This helps the traditional bourgeoisie parties (ÖVP+Greens+NEOS).

[Tender Branson]

Wow! ÖVP is larger than SPÖ and FPÖ togheter!

Never happened before, presumably?

Never.

And not only that: SPÖ+FPÖ+(BZÖ) (the working class parties) always had a majority together, until now.

There are 2 main reasons why this is not the case now:

* SPÖ+FPÖ both had scandals or a very ineffective campaign this time
* the economic situation in the country is good, with low unemployment and a budget surplus. This helps the traditional bourgeoisie parties (ÖVP+Greens+NEOS).

Not entirely correct ... in 1966, the ÖVP had 48.4% and SPÖ+FPÖ just 48%.

[Tender Branson]

Why did the Greens do so awfully in 2017 - winning zero seats - and then completely recover in this election?

They had a factional disaster, with their student wing splitting off and causing tremendous embarrassment with their radicalness, a leadership change and finally a big split with the Pilz List.

Partially this was just returning to the norm, but they benefited from the increased attention to climate issues, the successes of thw German Greens and a mediocre SPO campaign.

This and their heavy support for the immigrants during the wave of 2015/16, where a lot of criminals (murderers, rapists, welfare cheaters etc.) came in.

[Tender Branson]

Nice visualisation of how seat allocation works in Austria:

https://vis.strategieanalysen.at/mandate/

How are the individual MPs determined.

First by regional electoral district, then by state, then the rest via the federal election list.

One slide showed the number of mandates per constituency was based on the 2011 Census, but would be somewhat different based on 2019 population. What was used for this election? Since Austria no longer has a census, can these numbers be adjusted annually?

Austria still has a 10-year census, the last one in 2011 and the next in 2021. Why did you assume we have no census anymore ? It's just a register-based census, not a traditional one like in the US. The seats of each R.E.D. are determined by the citizen population of the Census result in 2011. This is not updated each year. The next determination will come in 2021. The slide just used a 2019 projection, based on the latest annual numbers.

What is the mathematical method for apportioning mandates? Is this done nationally, or by state, then by constituency?

No, it's the other way around (see above). The vast majority of seats (more than 100 out of 183 are first determined by the R.E.D. results, then state, then federal.

Weinviertel was shown as gaining two mandates (from 5 to 7) based on 2019. Is this suburban growth? Are the boundaries of Vienna more or less permanent? Since Vienna North would have also gained a mandate, and Vienna Inner West would lose one, would this reflect northward growth in the city? Why is this so?

Correct. The seats are apportioned by citizenship (unlike in the US, where the whole population is used). Citizens are moving out of Vienna and into the suburbs. Vienna is only growing heavily because of non-citizens moving in. But there are some districts in Vienna, where citizens are also moving to, especially in the North.

Is it feasible/practicable to commute to Vienna on a daily basis from Czechia, Slovakia, or Hungary?

It is possible, but takes 2-3 hours and 2-3 hours back a day. The only interesting commute is between Vienna and Bratislava.

If a party is only contesting select states, and wins a mandate (likely at the state level) is that seat then excluded from the national allocation?

This would depend on the specifics of the result, but as I have said above the first allocation is at the R.E.D. level.

[Tender Branson]

What's the story behind the Greens doing so well in Voralberg?

Vorarlberg is very urban and has one of the longest Green traditions in Austria and even Europe (early 1980s).

The Vorarlberg Greens already entered state parliament there in 1984 (!) with 13% (!).

Since then they have always been a good alternative for disappointed moderate ÖVP-voters, especially because the SPÖ is historically very weak there.

[Tender Branson]

Here are all the maps you need for this election:

https://static.kurier.at/nr-wahl-2019/index.map.html

Party strength by district, then town/city.

ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS, Pilz.

Then turnout by district, then town/city.

Finally, winning party by district, then town/city.

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer has suspended Strache's FPÖ-membership today, after 7 hours of intra-party debate.

Before that, Strache already announced at a press conference that he will "completely pull out of politics" and "do something else".

https://orf.at/stories/3139392

[Tender Branson]

Why is NEOS that strong in Voralberg? Is Voralberg like Germany's Baden Würtemberg i.e a strong liberal tradition which now turns green?

Vorarlberg can be compared to BW, yes, language- and politics-wise. But in the the case of BW, it's mostly their very popular Green Governor which explains the strong standing of the Greens there.

Why are the liberal NEOS so strong in Vorarlberg ? Much like the Greens, NEOS tends to do well in urban areas and Vorarlberg is very urban. It is also the home state of NEOS-founder Matthias Strolz and of the current European Parliament member Claudia Gamon. Vorarlberg is also very small and big business- and manufacturing minded and that's where NEOS does well.

Vorarlberg is also a bit like Utah:

In state elections, it is solidly ÖVP (50%) - because they like the moderate style of their Governor Markus Wallner on immigration. But in federal elections, the ÖVP with Kurz is not even getting 35%, because voters do not like his tough policies on immigration etc. Same with UT: they vote 60-70% Republican for anyone but Trump (45%).

[Tender Branson]

So, the last 2 days saw intra-party meetings of all parties, where they discussed their election results. The FPÖ kicked out Strache and the SPÖ replaced their general secretary. The Greens decided that they will go for exploration talks with Kurz if they are invited, but "see virtually no common ground with the Kurz-ÖVP going forward, unless they change a lot on several topics".

Today, Kurz (ÖVP), Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ) and Hofer (FPÖ) were all invited by President Van der Bellen and talked with him for 1 hour each.

Kurz told VdB that "voters made clear that they want his way to continue" and that "he's ready to lead the next government again".

Rendi-Wagner said she wants to renew the party, would be willing to take responsibility for the country and voters and enter into exploration talks with Kurz, if invited, with a strong focus on social topics.

Hofer told VdB that his party "prepares for opposition". But should Kurz's exploration and coalition talks fail to produce a coalition after a long time, the FPÖ's leadership committee could also "reconsider the new situation" and might enter talks with Kurz.

Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS) and Kogler (Greens) will meet VdB tomorrow.

VdB said he wants the new government to put a special and enthusiastic focus on fighting climate change and pollution. He is expected to ask Kurz to form the new government tomorrow, when the final 40k votes are counted. Kurz will likely start exploratory talks with all parties next week. If those exploratory talks are done, Kurz will announce which party/parties he will start coalition talks with.

https://orf.at/stories/3139453

[Tender Branson]

And FPÖ has been set back for a few years (though I'm sure they'll slowly creep their way up again, there's no stopping these forces long-term it seems).

That's very likely. Now, they will make a deep cut and get rid of the Straches and they already announced stricter compliance rules (similar to companies), so that expenses will not become a problem for them anymore in the future. A task force will be created, headed by the popular and only FPÖ-mayor of a big city.

They will be associated with the Ibiza-scandal for another few years, but I could see the FPÖ being at 20%+ again by the end of this new term ... if they are in opposition and not in another ÖVP-FPÖ government.

[Tender Branson]

could Strache form his own party?

Yes.

[Tender Branson]

This is hilarious:

https://burgenland.orf.at/stories/3015683

The Eisenstadt voting commission received a postal ballot in a plastic bag with the address of the local hospital on it.

The voting commission members were sceptical and called the hospital.

They said that the postal ballot is from a patient in their quarantine ward, who asked a nurse to put it in a plastic bag and send it in.

The voting commission then had to decide what is more important: open the ballot, or destroy it and not count it.

They decided to destroy the ballot, because the possibility of a mass infection outweighed voting rights ...

[Tender Branson]

I just noticed something very interesting:

My district (Zell am See) was the only one among 116 where ÖVP-FPÖ increased their share compared with 2017.

The ÖVP gained 12%, the FPÖ lost 11.8%

In all other 115 districts, the FPÖ lost more than the ÖVP gained.

[Tender Branson]

I just noticed something very interesting:

My district (Zell am See) was the only one among 116 where ÖVP-FPÖ increased their share compared with 2017.

The ÖVP gained 12%, the FPÖ lost 11.8%

In all other 115 districts, the FPÖ lost more than the ÖVP gained.

By looking at all 116 districts, I also noticed that in the rural counties the FPÖ losses were mostly absorbed by the rising ÖVP. In the suburban districts, the ÖVP gained ca. half of what the FPÖ lost. And in many urban districts, the ÖVP gained almost nothing while the FPÖ lost 5-10%. In some Vienna districts, both ÖVP & FPÖ lost compared with 2017.

A map would be cool.

[Tender Branson]

All votes (incl. all postal/absentee votes) are now counted:

https://wahl19.bmi.gv.at/index.html

[Tender Branson]

All votes (incl. all postal/absentee votes) are now counted:

https://wahl19.bmi.gv.at/index.html

Greens got 0.1%, but beyond that these last 40K mail ballots didn't adjust anything.

Yeah.

But the Greens managed to overtake the FPÖ in Tyrol with this final batch ... by 80 votes.

The Greens are now 2nd in Tyrol and the FPÖ 3rd.

[Tender Branson]

Final results:



Historical results:



Despite their scandals, the FPÖ-base has strengthened a lot since the 1980s: from around 5%, to 10% in 2002 and now 16%.

The only party that has a constant downward trend is the SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

You only assigned 182 instead of 183 seats.

I guess the ÖVP would get the additional one.

[Tender Branson]

Why did OVP change color in 2017?

Because Kurz wanted to re-brand the party. The Kurz-ÖVP at the federal level uses turquoise, while most state ÖVP's still use black (combined with yellow).

[Tender Branson]

Question:

Will the shift from RED to State level election have much overall effect on Parliament? Or are the state-level members from SPO and FPO pretty much the same as if they had been elected at the RED level.

Elected candidates from the regional electoral district level usually are political newcomers with only local political experience. That is good for the composition and rejuvenation of the future legislature. Candidates elected from the state level have more experience and those from the federal lists usually are the ones with the most political experience (party leaders, current or former MPs, union leaders, NGO members etc.)