Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

Whatever happened to FPO's desire to bring Swiss style direct democracy to the country btw?

Was planned for 2022, under the old government.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ & Greens killed the constitutional deficit and debt brake today in the second chamber of parliament - the Bundesrat.

23 (SPÖ+Greens) voted against, 38 (62%) in favour (ÖVP+FPÖ).

In the Nationalrat, 68% voted in favour (ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS).

https://orf.at/#/stories/3140397/

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ's Hermione Granger

lmao

There are certain similarities between them ...

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ has officially abandoned the coalition talks today, saying they got internal things to fix and that their election result is no mandate from voters to govern again.

https://orf.at/stories/3140382/

[Tender Branson]

Kurz has scheduled another round of exploration talks with SPÖ, Greens and NEOS for next Wednesday, this time with complete negotiation teams from each party.

The Kurier reports that the trend is definitely in favour of ÖVP-Greens, based on insider information from party officials.

The SPÖ is still officially „in“ the talks, but the mood inside the party is leaning more towards opposition.

And NEOS is not even needed as a coalition partner, plus Kurz is unlikely to take them in as a 3rd partner, because of their strong demands on several issues.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nach-der-ersten-runde-nur-noch-eineinhalb-optionen-fuer-kurz/400643630

[Tender Branson]

Kurz has scheduled another round of exploration talks with SPÖ, Greens and NEOS for next Wednesday, this time with complete negotiation teams from each party.

The Kurier reports that the trend is definitely in favour of ÖVP-Greens, based on insider information from party officials.

The SPÖ is still officially „in“ the talks, but the mood inside the party is leaning more towards opposition.

And NEOS is not even needed as a coalition partner, plus Kurz is unlikely to take them in as a 3rd partner, because of their strong demands on several issues.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nach-der-ersten-runde-nur-noch-eineinhalb-optionen-fuer-kurz/400643630

Well Kurz realistically would need one of the big oppositions to bend for each issue on a vote by vote basis - unless of course the upcoming state elections are beneficial to both the OVP and Greens, which result in seat turnarounds.

Yeah, I posted earlier that while ÖVP-Greens would have a small majority in the Nationalrat - they only have a 22+2/61 minority in the Bundesrat, representing the states.

That’s why Kurz will always need the support of either SPÖ or FPÖ for constitutional laws to become law (not for regular laws though, which are not impacting the states. For these laws, the Bundesrat only serves as a rubberstamp).

The coming state elections won’t change a lot in the composition of the Bundesrat:

In Vorarlberg, the Greens could steal the FPÖ seat (but only if they overtake them and the ÖVP does not pass 50%).

In Styria, the ÖVP and Greens could gain a federal Bundesrat seat each, SPÖ+FPÖ losing one each.

In the small Burgenland election in January, no seats will change.

That means ÖVP+Greens would improve their situation in the Bundesrat by a net 3 seats until January, when they need a net gain of 7 for a majority in the chamber ...

[Tender Branson]

The Vorarlberg state election is coming up on Sunday.

The state has a strong historical ÖVP-lean and that is likely to continue on Sunday with gains, because the state party is much more moderate and consensual than the polarizing Kurz-ÖVP on social/foreigner/asylum topics.

The 2014 results were like this:



There's limited polling, but it is expected that the ÖVP will get 45-50% - maybe even an absolute majority, depending on how well NEOS and the small, fringe parties without a chance do. 48-49% would be enough for such an absolute majority, but the state ÖVP has a history of still picking a coalition partner despite getting an absolute majority in earlier elections.

The current government is ÖVP-Greens and is seen as highly successful in the state. While the Greens had a very good result in 2014, it's not impossible that they can get it again (the List Pilz is not on the ballot).

NEOS is the big unknown, could get anywhere between 6% and 13%.

The SPÖ has a new, younger leader and might improve a bit - to reach double-digits again (LOL).

The FPÖ is expected to drop by a lot, following national trends. A result between 12-16% is likely, but they will not drop below 10% - because Vorarlberg is very export-oriented and has a big manufacturing/production sector.

There are also 7 smaller, meaningless parties running, none of them with a chance to pass the threshold. The biggest potential probably has HaK (a migrant, better said ... Turkish list).

Only 270.000 voters are eligible to vote (it is the 2nd smallest state).

Polls will close at 1pm (yes, that's right).

[Tender Branson]

35.000 postal ballots were requested ahead of the Vorarlberg election.

That’s up 38% compared with the 2014 state election, but down 20% compared with the federal elections two weeks ago.

Looks like turnout will be around 60%-ish, maybe a bit more. They always have the lowest turnout, together with Tyrol and Vienna.

https://presse.vorarlberg.at/land/dist/vlk-60246.html

[Tender Branson]

what are the strong NEOS demands?

Among the important ones („red lines“ !) she told Kurz, were:

# NEOS would not be part of a government that puts any human rights in question or violates them

# full transparency in politics and political donations (those are particularly tough demands for the shady (corrupt ?) Kurz ÖVP, because they would have to dissolve their dark money channels via secret constructs involving banks (Raiffeisen), big companies and wealthy donors.

# a comprehensive education reform, with more autonomy for headmasters and teachers

# a tax reform/tax cut for employers and employees

# pension reform automatism (something the ÖVP opposes). NEOS has called the ÖVP „to the left of the Swedish Social Democrats“ on this issue ...

# a comprehensive climate protection bill, which would include a carbon tax (which the ÖVP opposes -> no new tax burdens for working people.)

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000109686628/meinl-reisinger-legte-kurz-ihre-roten-linien-dar

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday will be important:

# the federal election commission will publish the certified results of the federal election results and the candidates who will get a seat in the new Nationalrat, which will convene on October 23. Here is the new Green parliament group for example:


Source: Greens - Twitter

# also, Philippa Strache has to decide by Wednesday if she will take her seat or not. Former party leader H.C. Strache is very active on his (personal) Facebook page right now, demanding his former party to accept her in their group. The FPÖ is strongly opposed and wants to get rid of any connections with the Strache’s. Philippa could still accept her seat, become a more or less meaningless, powerless independent MP, cash in 9.000€ for 5 years and be a thorn in the flesh for the FPÖ. H.C. Strache has recently also given hints he might create his own party to oppose the FPÖ in the Vienna state election next year. But for this, he would need some people willing to finance it and there are still the legal challenges about the Ibiza video awaiting him in court.

# the in-depth exploration talks headed by the ÖVP will continue.

Also: both SPÖ and FPÖ have decided in meetings to start a „renewal process“, which will start right away. The FPÖ will have 2 task forces and present first results in December, the SPÖ next April.

[Tender Branson]

Monthly "Profil" magazine poll (Oct. 7-11, aged 16+, n=807, phone+online, MoE = +/- 3.5%):

37% ÖVP
20% SPÖ
17% FPÖ
15% Greens
  9% NEOS
  2% Others

Chancellor vote:

39% Kurz (ÖVP)
12% Hofer (FPÖ)
11% Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
  8% Kogler (Greens)
  6% Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)

Also:

60% of Austrians want a new government until Christmas, 22% wouldn't mind if it takes longer than that.

66% of Austrians now favour a total ban on private handgun ownership.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-mehrheit-regierung-weihnachten-11168447

[Tender Branson]

Vorarlberg state election today.

Polls close in 3 hours already.

"Big" questions:

* Will the ÖVP get an absolute majority ?
* Can the Greens improve on their good 2014 result of 17% ?
* Will the FPÖ collapse of -10% continue ?
* Can the SPÖ reach double-digits again ?
* Will NEOS pass 10%, or overtake the SPÖ, like they did 2 weeks ago ?
* Who will be the strongest small party ?
* Will turnout drop below 60% ?
* Will ÖVP-Greens continue ?

https://www.vol.at/specials/landtagswahl

Results:

http://apps.vorarlberg.at/wahlen/wahl/LT?id=LT_2019-10-13

[Tender Branson]

The polls in Vorarlberg have closed and some small towns are already counted.

Trends: Heavy FPÖ losses, gains for all other parties.

[Tender Branson]

The polls in Vorarlberg have closed and some small towns are already counted.

Trends: Heavy FPÖ losses, gains for all other parties.

If the trends keep up, the FPÖ will drop from 23-24% to 12%.

[Tender Branson]

It’s not an exit poll, but a projection.

The FPÖ is too high in this one, they will get less than 15% ... and the Greens 20%.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ drops to 14% in the updated projection:

https://orf.at/wahl/#/projection

Which means they would lose 4 of their 9 seats in the state parliament, while ÖVP/Greens/SPÖ/NEOS gain one each.

[Tender Branson]

Today is the worst FPÖ result in a federal/EU/statewide election in 6.5 years.

The last time the FPÖ got less was in early 2013 during the Tyrol state election with 9.3%

[Tender Branson]

I would say OVP+NEOS  is the likely govt here at first glance, but realistically anyone who desires power could work with the Voralberg OVP. Greens will gain a seat in the upper house.

A continuation of Black-Green is most likely, because ÖVP-Governor Markus Wallner already said he prefers that option.

[Tender Branson]

Among the small parties, the Turkish list HaK and XI (never heard) are strongest with 1.5% each.

[Tender Branson]

Only 2 major cities left: the capital Bregenz and Feldkirch.

They should keep the FPÖ below 14%.

[Tender Branson]

Final results from Vorarlberg (except a few thousand absentee ballots that were cast in other precincts than the own and which will be counted on Tuesday):

http://apps.vorarlberg.at/wahlen/wahl/LT?id=LT_2019-10-13

[Tender Branson]

Final results from Vorarlberg (except a few thousand absentee ballots that were cast in other precincts than the own and which will be counted on Tuesday):

http://apps.vorarlberg.at/wahlen/wahl/LT?id=LT_2019-10-13

Clickable maps:

https://visualhosting.apa.at/3oiusd09/election/index.map.city.html?apaview=election:80000

Click on Hochburg ("stronghold") > select a party.

https://at.staticfiles.at/snippets/interaktiv/2019/10-ltw-v/map.html?2230812dd6ae4fd4fb08

[Tender Branson]

The Greens have presented their new parliamentary group today to the public, in their first common work meeting:

https://twitter.com/Gruene_Austria/status/1183718667202318342
They said that out of the 26, more than 25% have a migrant background.

15 are women (+1 female Pirate on a Green ticket is missing in the picture).

Half are under the age of 40.

[Tender Branson]

Greens will gain a seat in the upper house.

This is correct.

In the Bundesrat, the ÖVP now has 22, the SPÖ 21, the FPÖ 15 and the Greens 3 seats.

ÖVP+Greens would need 31/61 seats to have their own majority there as well. That's a net gain of 6 over the next year.

In the Styria state election next month, ÖVP and Greens could net one seat each from the FPÖ and SPÖ. Giving them 27.

If the Burgenland state election in January turns out to be a total catastrophe for the SPÖ (like on the federal level), the ÖVP would net another seat. But that's very unlikely, as the Burgenland SPÖ in state elections should easily keep the ÖVP behind.

Still, let's assume a debacle and ÖVP-Greens have 28/61 seats in January.

Then it would come down to the important Vienna state election next year. If the ÖVP can replicate their good results from the federal election there as well (pretty unlikely), they would net 2 seats. And if the Greens are also getting 20-25%, they could also net one.

Bringing them to 31 seats. But that's a lot of ifs ...

[Tender Branson]

I thought Maria Chlastak was elected ...  

It seems Ralph Schallmeiner is missing on the picture.