Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

Do you think the impachment is going t help or hurt Kurz in the end? On one hand, the opposition comes off as incredibly petty, voting out a caretaker government. On the other hand, Kurz is losing the podium of power.

It will help him. Voters are opposed to his removal by a 70-30 (!) margin.

He can now play the victim card over the next months and form a ÖVP-Greens-NEOS government.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz and his cabinet were just voted out of office by SPÖ+FPÖ+NOW.

ÖVP+NEOS voted against.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1133028849548185601?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

185 no-confidence votes were held in Austria since WW2, all of them failed.

The 186th today did not.

President VdB will meet with all party leaders tonight to discuss things.


Please, for the love of God, stop posting copyrighted images. If you're not sure about states of the image, just don't post it.

[Tender Branson]

So...what now?

So...

While the whole cabinet lost the confidence vote, they are still technically in office until President VdB officially removes them from office too. That is to avoid a political vacuum.

But this will only last a few days, because VdB already has a list of his own with potential cabinet members + interim Chancellor, who will be sworn in in a few days.

VdB will also speak to the press at 9pm, after meeting with all party and parliamentary group leaders (he's quite busy today, he also met with Greta Thunberg).

Once this new government is in place, they will set the election date (in September), so parliament can OK the date.

Kurz will then end up like Jon Snow: after being declared dead today by the opposition he will return from the "dead".

Then, in September, Austrian voters will pull out the daggers and "kill" the SPÖ for their actions today (I assume they will get ca. 20-24% in September, while a recovered FPÖ gets that support as well and the ÖVP close to 40%).

Kurz will then form a ÖVP-Greens-NEOS government, showing the middle-finger to both SPÖ and FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

So...what now?

President VdB has just spoken to the nation and said:

* He will dismiss the whole cabinet tomorrow at 11:30am.

* He will then immediately re-appoint them for the next few days, so there is no vacuum.

* Finance Minister Löger will become the new Chancellor for these few days, until VdB can present his new interim Chancellor and cabinet. Kurz will take a seat in parliament in the meantime for the coming months.

* VdB wants to find and present his Chancellor + cabinet by Sunday.

[Tender Branson]

The chances are high that VdB will pick a woman as the new Chancellor:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/van-der-bellen-sucht-eineeinen-neuen-regierungschefin/400508101

It would be the first female Chancellor, even if it would be just for 6 months.

Also, Kurz announced today that he will not take a seat in parliament as was speculated before, but go on a 4 month long campaign tour through Austria to meet people in every corner.

[Tender Branson]

Christine Haberlander (pronounced „Huh-buh-lun-duh“) would be a great choice for Chancellor in my opinion:



https://www.christine-haberlander.at

Young, female, ÖVP and with government experience (she’s the current Vice-Governor of Upper Austria).

[Tender Branson]

I feel that the SPO was caught in a dead if you do and a dead if you don't the situation.
Looking at it, they could either leave Kurz to use his political position during the election or take him out but face the wrath of the electorate.
I still think that jumping on the VONC was the better choice for SPO.
Anyway, it's clear that the SPO needs to do some self-reflecting after they inevitably lose to Kurz again.

To be clear though, I do not think Kurz should have been VONC'd as the resignation of Strache was more than enough.

The vote-of-no-confidence against Kurz maybe helped the SPÖ a bit in their urban areas, but not in the rural areas, where many older SPÖ-voters also like Kurz and are disappointed with the actions of their party. I think voters will punish the SPÖ for this.

My preliminary prediction for September, also based on the EU trends:

38-40% ÖVP
20-25% SPÖ
18-22% FPÖ
  8-12% Greens (combined, with NOW)
    5-7% NEOS
       1% KPÖ
       1% Others

Most likely: 38% ÖVP, 24% SPÖ, 20% FPÖ, 10% Greens/NOW, 6% NEOS, 1% KPÖ, 1% Others.

[Tender Branson]

I feel that the SPO was caught in a dead if you do and a dead if you don't the situation.
Looking at it, they could either leave Kurz to use his political position during the election or take him out but face the wrath of the electorate.
I still think that jumping on the VONC was the better choice for SPO.
Anyway, it's clear that the SPO needs to do some self-reflecting after they inevitably lose to Kurz again.

To be clear though, I do not think Kurz should have been VONC'd as the resignation of Strache was more than enough.

The vote-of-no-confidence against Kurz maybe helped the SPÖ a bit in their urban areas, but not in the rural areas, where many older SPÖ-voters also like Kurz and are disappointed with the actions of their party. I think voters will punish the SPÖ for this.

My preliminary prediction for September, also based on the EU trends:

38-40% ÖVP
20-25% SPÖ
18-22% FPÖ
  8-12% Greens (combined, with NOW)
    5-7% NEOS
       1% KPÖ
       1% Others

Most likely: 38% ÖVP, 24% SPÖ, 20% FPÖ, 10% Greens/NOW, 6% NEOS, 1% KPÖ, 1% Others.

Do you have any ideas as to who could succeed Wagner if the SPO performs badly in the September elections?

They WILL perform badly and no, not really. Certainly not Doskozil or Kaiser, as they want to remain Governors of their states. Maybe an unused fresh-face unionist from the FSG out of the states. It’s what they would need to find their way back ...

[Tender Branson]

The election date will be decided by the new, incoming interim government that VdB appoints over the next days + the parties.

They will need a consensus date, because Sept. 1 and 8 are still during the summer holidays and therefore out.

Which means Sept. 15, 22 and 29 are the likely dates.

The ÖVP apparently favours Sept. 15, the SPÖ Sept. 22 and the FPÖ has no particular wish. NEOS is siding with the ÖVP and wants Sept. 15, because this is also what President VdB said ("early September").

Btw: Israel votes on September 17th.

https://derstandard.at/2000104041104/Gerangel-um-Wahltermin-15-oder-22-September-moeglich

[Tender Branson]

So, the 340.000 university students in Austria elected their student parliament over the last days.

This is similar to a regular parliamentary election, just in each university, and is done every 2 years.

Here are the results (changes compared with 2017):



AG = ÖVP
GRAS = Greens
VSStÖ = SPÖ
JUNOS = NEOS
FLÖ = Independents (left-wing)
KSV-LiLi = KPÖ 1.0
KSV-KJÖ = KPÖ 2.0
RFS = FPÖ
No Ma'am = The Party (satire)

Turnout: 26% (+2) ... damn lazy students.

The current government is VSStÖ, GRAS & FLÖ with 29/55 seats (frontrunners below):



They would have 31/55 seats now and could continue their government to represent students.

https://orf.at/stories/3124896

[Tender Branson]

Looks like 4 names are on President VdB's shortlist for Chancellor:

* Elisabeth Kornfeind (current Austrian ambassador in Belgium)
* Michael Linhart (current Austrian ambassador in France)
* Andreas Riecken (a high-ranking official in the Foreign Ministry)
* Gerhart Holzinger (former Constitutional Court Chief Justice)

VdB wants someone who has close EU ties and experience - for the coming EU negotiations.

It's possible that VdB could present his interim cabinet tomorrow already (today is a public holiday).

[Tender Branson]

Former FPÖ Interior Minister Herbert Kickl (literally, and in full campaign-mode already):

"The ÖVP is behind the Ibiza-video that brought down Strache and the ÖVP-FPÖ government !"

https://orf.at/stories/3125060

This comes as the interim Interior Minister Eckart Ratz is now cancelling several directives from Kickl, such as the lower voluntary pay for asylum seekers doing community work to just 1.5€/hour, or by re-naming asylum centers in Austria from "departure centers" to "acceptance centers" again. Ratz is also cancelling Kickl's police press directive, which mandated police to publish the nationality of every violent offender in their press release section.

Kickl: "They are going back to the same old, devastating pro-immigration policy now !"

[Tender Branson]

 Gotta love the disconnect between student support for the RFS and support for the FPO in Austria as a whole. Surprising that the AG is leading faction, but I guess thats just because there are so many left leaning groups. But perhaps among the strong majority of non-voting students there is a closer match to the political leanings of the rest of Austria.

Not really: All studies show that students are much more leftist than the overall population, voting a lot more Green and Liberal and far less for the FPÖ. Even among the general population, the FPÖ-share drops to 3-5% among those with a university degree. The FPÖ does a lot better with those who are not attending university after 12 years of school, especially among those who enter an apprenticeship and who start to work directly after school. Since most older Austrians chose an apprenticeship when they were younger, instead of a university education, that explains the high FPÖ-share in elections. Even today, the mostly small-business Austrian economy requires much more technicians and apprenticeship-based craftspersons than university-trained people and even a lot of parents these days want their children to enter an apprenticeship or vocational school, because in their opinion it better fits the current labour market and their chances to get a job. Not many parents want their kids to study philosophy etc. - where unemployment is high after a completed university degree. As a technician with a completed apprenticeship, you will immediately get a job these days.

[Tender Branson]

President Alexander Van der Bellen has decided on a new Chancellor for the next 4-6 months.

https://orf.at/stories/3125115

All parties have accepted his choice and VdB will announce the name today at 3pm.

My guess would be Michael Linhart, a top diplomat or Gerhart Holzinger, the former Supreme Court Justice. On the other hand I hope VdB has the balls to present a female Chancellor.

[Tender Branson]

Most likely: 38% ÖVP, 24% SPÖ, 20% FPÖ, 10% Greens/NOW, 6% NEOS, 1% KPÖ, 1% Others.

Why would the ÖVP do better than in the EP election?

A) Kurz is on the ballot.

B) Greens and NEOS will not be as strong as in the EP election, which means +4% or so for Kurz.

[Tender Branson]

B) Greens and NEOS will not be as strong as in the EP election, which means +4% or so for Kurz.

I don't see how it means that. Wouldn't it benefit SPÖ and FPÖ just as much as ÖVP (FPÖ possibly more given that euroskeptical voters tend to turn out worse in EP elections)?

Mostly going by polls. The latest poll for the federal election already has the ÖVP at 38% and the Greens and NEOS not as strong.

[Tender Branson]

President Alexander Van der Bellen has decided on a new Chancellor for the next 4-6 months.

https://orf.at/stories/3125115

All parties have accepted his choice and VdB will announce the name today at 3pm.

My guess would be Michael Linhart, a top diplomat or Gerhart Holzinger, the former Supreme Court Justice. On the other hand I hope VdB has the balls to present a female Chancellor.

The "Presse" reports that the current Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court, Brigitte Bierlein, will become Chancellor.

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5636831/Praesidentin-des-Verfassungsgerichtshof-Brigitte-Bierlein-wird

[Tender Branson]

Brigitte Bierlein („beer-line“) officially appointed the 1st female Chancellor of Austria by President Van der Bellen.

She and the new technocrat cabinet will be sworn in on Monday.

[Tender Branson]

Clemens Jabloner (another judge, law professor and good friend of Bierlein) will become Vice-Chancellor and Minister for Justice, while Alexander Schallenberg - a top official in the Foreign Ministry - will become Foreign Minister.

[Tender Branson]

Van der Bellen apparently wanted to be the one who appoints the first woman Chancellor, while at the some time avoiding accusations of being not impartial by ultimately going for someome who's known for being somewhat  close to the ÖVP/FPÖ.

Correct.

Bierlein comes from a conservative background, but as Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court has also had quite moderate positions on gay marriage, asylum, welfare payments etc.

I think she’s OK for the next couple months, even though I was hoping for a younger female Chancellor, such as Christine Haberlander.

[Tender Branson]

September 29 looks like the date for the early election.

This is what both SPÖ and FPÖ want (the later, the better for them) and they have a majority in parliament.

The ÖVP (they want to vote as early as possible, on September 1/8/15) is furious, saying that SPÖ & FPÖ are already preparing a secret coalition.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/rot-blaue-mehrheit-fuer-29-september-als-wahltermin/400510150

[Tender Branson]

  An SPO FPO coalition.  That  would be intresting to see.  In this fantasy scenario of mine Hofer helps clean up the FPO image and brand, and the SPO comes close to the FPO in the asylum immigration side of things, and the FPO comes closer to the SPO on taxation, government spending etc. Burgenland goes national.

Not going to happen.

A) the SPÖ doesn't want it.

B) they will not have a majority this time.

[Tender Branson]

Most Austrians prefer a threesome after the election:

ATV/Unique Research poll about coalition preferences

25% ÖVP-Greens-NEOS
21% ÖVP-FPÖ
19% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS
  7% ÖVP-SPÖ
  5% SPÖ-FPÖ

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190531_OTS0112/atv-frage-der-woche-ein-viertel-der-oesterreicherinnen-sieht-dreier-koalition-oevp-gruene-neos-in-der-kommenden-regierung

[Tender Branson]

Finland-born Iris Eliisa Rauskala will become the new Minister for Education:

https://derstandard.at/2000104156446/Praesidialsektionschefin-Iris-Rauskala-soll-Bildungsministerin-werden

[Tender Branson]

Which party is Iris Rauskala of?

Same question for the new chancellor. And what were their roles previously?

De-facto none.

But both are close to the ÖVP, so is the new Foreign Minister Schallenberg.

Jabloner is closer to the SPÖ.

For their previous roles, see above. Rauskala is a top official in the Education Ministry.