Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

The technocrat cabinet of Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein will be smaller than the original ÖVP-FPÖ government, probably just 12 members instead of 16.

4 are already named, 8 or so to go.

The posts of Strache and Blümel and the 2 state secretaries will not be re-staffed, but merged with other ministries for the next months.

The coming 4 months also offer a rare window of Swiss-style multipartisanship, where such things as tougher campaign finance laws and oversight could be passed.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/bierleins-beamtenregierung-soll-parteispenden-neu-regeln/400511215

[Tender Branson]

New Demox Research poll published in the „Presse“ (n=1.000, conducted in the past few days):

37-38% ÖVP
22-23% SPÖ
18-19% FPÖ
10-11% NEOS
    8-9% Greens
    1-3% Others

2017 result: 31.5% ÖVP, 27% SPÖ, 26% FPÖ, 5% NEOS, 4% Greens, 6.5% Others

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5637522/Warten-auf-das-Kabinett-Bierlein

[Tender Branson]

New Demox Research poll published in the „Presse“ (n=1.000, conducted in the past few days):

37-38% ÖVP
22-23% SPÖ
18-19% FPÖ
10-11% NEOS
    8-9% Greens
    1-3% Others

2017 result: 31.5% ÖVP, 27% SPÖ, 26% FPÖ, 5% NEOS, 4% Greens, 6.5% Others

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5637522/Warten-auf-das-Kabinett-Bierlein

If those were the election results we could see an OVP/NEOS coalition and the FPO could be discarded. It would be like an Austrian version of a standard issue CDU/FDP coalition. Someone enlighten me as to whether ist fair to describe NEOS as basically an Austrian version of the FDP

I don’t think these are the eventual election results, because I think that the roles of NEOS and Greens will be reversed in the end.

The Greens are benefitting from the current climate change movement of Greta Thunberg (she was in Vienna yesterday for her strike), while there are some who are flirting with NEOS in the polls right now, but who will end up voting ÖVP in the voting booth.

[Tender Branson]

A new Research Affairs poll for Ö24 confirms the DEMOX poll above, with the FPÖ and SPÖ crashing and burning:



2/3 people think the sacking of Kurz by SPÖ-FPÖ was wrong and more than 70% say it hurt our reputation abroad.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wen-waehlen-Sie-Umfrage-Rekord-fuer-Kurz/382648855

[Tender Branson]

Kurz = Jesus

https://twitter.com/v_schwarz/status/1134562746257813504

[Tender Branson]

Some say Jesus, others say ...

[Tender Branson]

Elisabeth Udolf to become new Minister for the Economy:

So far, there's gender parity in the new cabinet: 3 women and 3 men.

[Tender Branson]

Additional names have been more or less confirmed today:

* Social Minister: Brigitte Zarfl (SPÖ-affiliated)
* Women, Families & Youth Minister: Ines Stilling (SPÖ-affiliated)
* Finance Minister: Eduard Müller (ÖVP-affiliated)
* Transport & Infrastructure Minister: Hartwig Hufnagl (FPÖ-affiliated)

Eckart Ratz (ÖVP-affiliated and appointed by Kurz himself) is likely to remain as Interior Minister.

That means only a Defense- and Agriculture Minister are left to choose.

https://derstandard.at/2000104181458/Drei-neue-Namen-fuer-Bierleins-Kabinett-kolportiert

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5637704/Neue-Namen-der-BierleinRegierung

[Tender Branson]

Are the Austrian Greens as far to the left as the German Greens?

There is no big difference I would say.

[Tender Branson]

If there is no OVP-NEOS majority what is the most likely coalition? Any chance NOW run together with the Greens?

If ÖVP-NEOS or ÖVP-Greens is not possible (and this will likely be the case), ÖVP-Greens-NEOS will happen.

The 3 parties are already signalling their intention for a common government, without openly saying so.

And yeah, the Greens might integrate some of NOW's members on their election list, without actually merging ahead of the election. Peter Pilz himself will certainly not be part of the Green list. Too deep are the personal frictions between him and his former party and the Greens certainly do not want a disturbing force like him ahead of the election.

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" magazine poll:

"Do you want Strache to make a comeback in politics after some time ?"

68% No
22% Yes

FPÖ-voters:

67% Yes
28% No

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-polit-comeback-strache-ibiza-10809714

[Tender Branson]

Another new poll today (Unique Research for the "Krone"), same story:

ÖVP gaining, Greens gaining, NEOS gaining. SPÖ losing a lot, FPÖ losing a lot. NOW losing a lot.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1134824882682966021

[Tender Branson]

If there is no OVP-NEOS majority what is the most likely coalition? Any chance NOW run together with the Greens?

If ÖVP-NEOS or ÖVP-Greens is not possible (and this will likely be the case), ÖVP-Greens-NEOS will happen.

The 3 parties are already signalling their intention for a common government, without openly saying so.

And yeah, the Greens might integrate some of NOW's members on their election list, without actually merging ahead of the election. Peter Pilz himself will certainly not be part of the Green list. Too deep are the personal frictions between him and his former party and the Greens certainly do not want a disturbing force like him ahead of the election.

What would a government like that even look like, policy-wise? OVP and Greens don't really share anything meaningful in common, do they? And even NEOS would tightly restrict Kurz's move of the OVP to the right.

We will see a much different Kurz after the election: Once he has won the election with ca. 35-40% and NEOS/Greens with about 8% each, he will say "Immigration is not the main issue any longer and the policies I implemented with the FPÖ over the past 2 years have been enough to decrease new asylum requests to a much lower level and we can focus on the future now under a strengthened and dominating ÖVP".

And such a coalition would probably be quite popular too (see Salzburg here), because voters don't see it as polarizing as ÖVP-FPÖ.

In other words: Kurz will move so much to the center before and after the election to court the NEOS and Greens that they will most likely say yes to such a coalition. Kurz's conservative policies were only possible with a willing FPÖ. Under the new government, the focus will shift away from immigration and more to the economy, education, transparency and of course ecological issues such as climate protection.

[Tender Branson]

Another new poll (OGM, for the "Kurier" and "Kleine Zeitung"):

[Tender Branson]

With all 12 expected new interim cabinet members now named by the media (not officially confirmed yet), it has quite an ÖVP-lean - followed by the SPÖ and FPÖ.

Also, 6 women and 6 men.

Small change: Ratz will not remain as Interior Minister after all.

According to the "Krone", the cabinet will be sworn into office tomorrow at 11am by VdB.

ÖVP-affiliated or appointed to their previous posts under ÖVP-leadership:

* Chancellor: Brigitte Bierlein
* Foreign & EU Minister: Alexander Schallenberg
* Interior Minister: Wolfgang Peschorn
* Finance Minister: Eduard Müller
* Education Minister: Iris Rauskala
* Economy Minister: Elisabeth Udolf-Strobl
* Agriculture & Environment Minister: Maria Patek

SPÖ-affiliated or appointed to their previous posts under SPÖ-leadership:

* Vice-Chancellor & Minister for Justice: Clemens Jabloner
* Social Minister: Brigitte Zarfl
* Defense Minister: Thomas Starlinger
* Women, Families & Youth Minister: Ines Stilling

FPÖ-affiliated or appointed to their previous posts under FPÖ-leadership:

* Transport & Infrastructure Minister: Andreas Reichhardt

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ now has a problem with the likely new Interior Minister Andreas Pilsl, calling him „an ÖVP-man from the old black power circles“.

https://orf.at/stories/3125393

That‘s the 2nd guy they are complaining about, after the current Kurz-appointed minister Eckart Ratz has rolled back several of former FPÖ-minister Kickl‘s policies ...

Looks like the swearing-in tomorrow could be postponed ...

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ now has a problem with the likely new Interior Minister Andreas Pilsl, calling him „an ÖVP-man from the old black power circles“.

https://orf.at/stories/3125393

That‘s the 2nd guy they are complaining about, after the current Kurz-appointed minister Eckart Ratz has rolled back several of former FPÖ-minister Kickl‘s policies ...

Looks like the swearing-in tomorrow could be postponed ...

So, Pilsl will not become Interior Minister ...

Wolfgang Peschorn will.

Cabinet now complete, according to the APA.

https://orf.at/stories/3125412

https://derstandard.at/2000104218071/Bierlein-Neue-Regierung-ist-komplett-Wolfgang-Peschorn-Innenminister

[Tender Branson]

Here is the complete new technocratic interim government of Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein, which President Alexander Van der Bellen will swear in tomorrow at 11am.

This is the first time in ca. 250 years that Austria will get a female leader (after Empress Maria Theresia).

For the first time, a cabinet will have gender parity (the previous record was 40% women in the government of Chancellor Gusenbauer).


Note: Tender, what the hell did you expect will happen when you post an image with a clear (C) note?

[Tender Branson]

Note: Tender, what the hell did you expect will happen when you post an image with a clear (C) note?

It's an infographic from the APA. Everyone posts these kinds of graphics. Stop acting like copyright-Nazis, please.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, yeah ... will do that in the future (even if highly annoying).

Anyway, the Cabinet Brigitte Bierlein I was sworn in today and here are pictures of it:

Link (APA)

Link (Office of the President)

Chancellor Bierlein delivering her declaration of government:



Source: APA/Fohringer

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Bierlein is in office for just a few hours now, but the sexism has already started:

If you type in her name in Google, what does appear ?

* Bierlein face
* Bierlein botox
* Bierlein lifting
* Bierlein surgery
* Bierlein wig

She's not the youngest anymore for sure, but that's disgusting ...

[Tender Branson]

Just watched the swearing-in ceremony and her first speech of government and here are some important things:

* Van der Bellen said: "No doubt about it, I'm very happy that today, the first female Chancellor takes office and that half of the cabinet are women. In the future, nobody can say anymore IT IS NOT POSSIBLE, because it is possible."

* Bierlein also mentioned the young women of Austria to get active and not hide their ideas they have in the economy etc. and take part in politics and she said she wants a tolerant, open Austria in the EU and worldwide. She also said "This government will serve you, the people, as best as possible."

* The first cabinet council meeting will be on Wednesday and it will likely be about the election date and mediation between what date the different parties want.

* The next meeting of parliament will be on June 12, so that the new cabinet can introduce themselves to MPs by delivering speeches. It is likely that the election date can be passed then as well.

https://orf.at/stories/3125543

[Tender Branson]

Today, a meeting of major party officials took place to discuss the election date (LOL, not even on this topic they can agree).

It's becoming clearer and clearer that the federal election will take place on September 29. This is the date that SPÖ+FPÖ want and they have a majority in parliament. The ÖVP wants to vote as early as September 1, but this is still holiday season.

I think that SPÖ+FPÖ will pass this date next week in parliament.

Which means that the regular 5-year Vorarlberg state election will be held a week earlier, on September 22, because Governor Markus Wallner doesn't want to vote together with the federal election.

https://derstandard.at/2000104333839/SPOe-und-FPOe-beharren-laut-OeVP-auf-dem-29-September

[Tender Branson]

What just happened ?

?

[Tender Branson]

What just happened ?

?

I was referring to what did Strache & Kurz do to get tossed from office ?

Well ... there are now 12 pages about it.

Please start reading here.

Or here.