Finnish parliamentary election – 14 April 2019

[Tender Branson]

In recent years, Finland has experienced a struggling economy, a negative natural population development (more deaths than births), which was compensated with a high number of (Muslim) immigrants from backwards regions - bringing crime and other abuse to the country.

In general this is good news for the far-right PS, which should do well in this election (and they seem to be rising just at the right time).

I mostly agree with David's prediction and would not even rule out PS coming in 1st.

My prediction:

SDP 19.0
PS 17.4
KOK 16.5
KESK 15.9
Greens 11.4
Left Alliance 9.3
SFP 4.7
KD 4.1
SIN 1.0
Others 0.7

Turnout 74.3%

[Tender Branson]

This page is much better for results and turnout statistics:

https://tulospalvelu.vaalit.fi/EKV-2019/en/aoik_kokomaa.html

I think it's the official results page from the Finnish Interior Ministry.

Far more women have voted early (38.6%) than men (34.3%).

In total, 36.5% of domestic voters have voted early (excl. Finns living abroad).

https://tulospalvelu.vaalit.fi/EKV-2019/en/aanestys1.html

[Tender Branson]

Including Finns living abroad, 4.510.040 people are eligible to vote today.

Of them, 1.554.864 already have voted early (34.48%).

Therefore, ca. 50% of the expected total vote today was already cast early.

[Tender Branson]

Helsinkian, will there be a YLE projection at 7pm (8pm your time) ?

[Tender Branson]

The YLE projection is expected circa 1h30 min to 2h after the polls close.

Why does Finland not do an exit poll or Election Day/early voter survey for poll closing ?

Takes much of the fun away to wait 2 hours for a projection ...

[Tender Branson]

PS now at 16.4% in the real count and 2nd (3rd in seats):

https://tulospalvelu.vaalit.fi/EKV-2019/en/tulos_kokomaa.html

[Tender Branson]

PS gains 4% compared with 2015 in Oulu, where asylum seeking men have assaulted several young Finnish women.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like my prediction and David‘s could end up being really good.

[Tender Branson]

PS gains 4% compared with 2015 in Oulu, where asylum seeking men have assaulted several young Finnish women.

Yes, some left-winger commentators were saying that the police should not have talked about the events in public...

Ignoring these things won’t solve this problem.

[Tender Branson]

YLE projection currently has:

SDP 17.7%
Finns 17.2%
NCP 17.2%

Is there any chance Finns could end up above SDP?

I think it is actually possible if Helsinki & suburbs (Uusimaa) are performing not badly for them in the coming numbers. There is not a lot in from there (mostly early votes) and the Election Day vote could be better for PS.

[Tender Branson]

PS now gain 1% in Helsinki compared with 2015 (was stable earlier on).

PS lose 2.4% in Uusima suburbs compared with 2015, they were losing 4% earlier on.

This suggests the Election Day vote is strongly PS and could end with no loss there.

[Tender Branson]

I am confused on how the Finns vote share could be going up as more of Helsinki comes in ..

Math.

The Election Day vote for PS is stronger relative to what was already counted ...

[Tender Branson]

I think David, you had the best prediction overall, followed by mine.

I'm still happy after correctly predicting Ukraine I, Slovakia, Israel and now Finland.