Colorado-Rasmussen: Giuliani leads Clinton by 10%, Thompson and Clinton tied

[Tender Branson]

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Giuliani-R: 50%
Clinton-D: 40%

Clinton-D: 45%
Thompson-R: 45%

Arizona Senator John McCain leads Clinton by just three points while the former First Lady is essentially even with former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. However, Clinton doesn’t attract more than 45% support against any of the GOP hopefuls.

Sixty percent (60%) of Colorado voters say that Democratic Governor Bill Ritter is doing a good or an excellent job. Twenty-six percent (26%) say fair while 10% believe Ritter is doing a poor job.

Those numbers are much stronger than President Bush earns in the state. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of the Colorado’s voters give the President good or excellent marks while 18% say he’s doing a fair job and 45% say poor.

As for the 2008 hopefuls, Clinton is viewed favorably by 46% and unfavorably by 52%.

Giuliani is the best liked of all the candidates, 58% favorable and 39% unfavorable. Thompson’s numbers are 44% favorable and 38% unfavorable. McCain is viewed favorably by 44%, but another 51% have an unfavorable opinion of the man once viewed as the GOP frontrunner. Romney is viewed favorably by 41% and unfavorably by 45%.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/giuliani_leads_clinton_in_colorado

[Tender Branson]

First impression:

1) Yehaaa, finally a poll from Colorado !

2) Meeeh, Clinton suxx !

3) Thumbs up to Bill Ritter !

4) No Senate poll !

[Tender Branson]

New updated GE election map with all the latest state polls (Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, R2000 etc.):

Giuliani vs. Clinton:

Clinton: 241 EV
Giuliani: 147 EV

Changes: First CO poll with Giuliani ahead, OH flips from toss-up to Giuliani, Clinton keeps NH and FL

[Tender Branson]

These polls and that map are all useless, I hope you know that. It doesn't matter who's ahead now, no matter who it says is ahead. Wait until after the nominees are chosen, then you can start going crazy about polls. We should all focus on the nomination polls, not the GE ones.

Not so negative Master. What should we do in the next 1 year instead of interpreting all the polls that pop up ? Baking cookies and cakes ? I know that it is way too early now and even a week can be a looong time in politics, but I´ll keep updating this map no matter what anyone says (at least I´m updating it until early next year when www.electoral-vote.com takes over my job ...)

[Tender Branson]

I agree with Sam that MD will give us a very good handle on Florida even this far out.

... if they ever do GE polls additionally to their primary polls.

[Tender Branson]

Hillary has some inherent strengths, and some inherent weaknesses.

Pushing Colorado off the table is one of those weaknesses.

I´m wondering now if the Clinton campaign will actually go for Colorado if these numbers stay this way until early 2008 when she´s the DEM candidate and Rudy the Republican one ...

[Tender Branson]

Good time now to answer some of your quotes from the "John Elway for Senate" thread:

Can´t wait for a Colorado poll which ends your quarrel, (or not).

PS: I think the first CO presidential polls will show a slight advantage for the Republican candidate (0-5%) and a Toss-Up in the Senate. (+/- 3%)

Even though you're a Democrat, Tender, you're obviously pretty smart.  I think you're dead-on with your polling predictions.  Schaffer, who recently announced, has internals that show him literally neck and neck with Udall.  I think the first poll you'll get will show Udall up by a point or two and it will stay that way until Election Day where Schaffer will take it with the GOP's hard core GOTV.

As far as the presidential race, there's no doubt that the Republican will win (unless the Democrat is uber-popular Bill Richardson--which it won't be, so why bother talkign about it?).  Colorado is a red state.  Period.  Only one Democrat has won this state in the last fifty years!  Heck, even Nixon beat JFK!  (I know Clinton won in '92--but he got helped by Perot.  Colorado was Perot's 8th best state and only won with 35% of the vote.  Without Perot, Colorado stays red).

Kerry in 2004 thought he could put Colorado in play.  He wasted his money and got whooped.  Colorado come POTUS time is a ruby red state.  With other elections it's a crapshoot.  Colorado is a conservative state--though you can never rely on it to vote that way (sort of like Arkansas, I guess).  But there's just no way Hillary Clinton plays well in Colorado.  This is middle America, home to Focus on the Family and James Dobson, and the country's stiffest tax laws.  Trust me, Hillary won't play well here.

It seems my prediction was right for the most part, except when it comes to Giuliani vs. Clinton. I didn´t think Clinton would suck that badly against Giuliani in CO since she was about tied with him in FL, a state Bush won with the same margin as CO.

I thought Clinton would start CO in the 45% range in her first poll rather than 40%, because it trended DEM in 2004 contrary to FL. But I already had a bad feeling about Clinton´s standing in CO when I saw this article about Clinton dragging congressional candidates down.

It seems Giuliani has quite an appeal to moderate COans, probably ahead 60-40 in this group right now, while the other Republicans (Thompson, McCain, Romney) won´t have it in that range. Clinton will have to gain 5% in the next year and Giuliani lose 5% and I don´t know if that´s likely. As I´ve said in this thread before, Clinton´s campaign probably won´t focus on CO at all if she´s still behind Giuliani by 10% after Super-Tuesday. If she can bring Giuliani´s lead down to 3% until September next year, I think it´s still possible for her to win 49-48-3. And I still think CO will be the tightest race next year

BTW: Where do you get Schaffers internals from ? Do you work for his campaign ?