Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain] (user search)
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  Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain] (search mode)
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Author Topic: Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 302526 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #25 on: September 14, 2008, 12:22:09 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on September 14, 2008, 12:18:01 PM
As I said, these numbers are rock solid.  McCain should be leading 2-3 points nationally now; no more, no less.

The Rasmussen update tomorrow on CO, VA, PA, FL and OH should be interesting, considering McCain gained 2-3% over the week nationally.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #26 on: September 17, 2008, 12:07:29 PM »
Quote from: brittain33 on September 17, 2008, 12:02:37 PM
Wednesday -  September 16, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 45% (-2)

Good, Obama now leads by an average of 2% in today's 4 tracking polls (46.8%-44.8%).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #27 on: September 20, 2008, 11:59:44 AM »
The average of the 4 tracking polls today:

Obama - 48.25%
McCain - 44.25%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #28 on: September 20, 2008, 12:14:52 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on September 20, 2008, 12:11:46 PM
Are all three polls three day rolling averages?  I haven't checked the Kos or Diago since I find them less interesting.

Yes, but they use smaller daily samples of about 300.

Gallup and Rasmussen use a daily sample of roughly 1000.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #29 on: September 26, 2008, 12:28:54 PM »
Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #30 on: September 27, 2008, 12:02:52 PM »
Saturday - September 27, 2008:

Obama - 49% (+1)
McCain - 44% (-1)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #31 on: September 28, 2008, 01:52:44 PM »
Quote from: Governor Lief on September 28, 2008, 12:32:53 PM
Gallup:   50 - 42
Diaego:  47 - 42
R2k/DK: 50 - 43
Rass:     50 - 44
Average: 49.25 - 42.75

Obama +6.5

It's Obama+7 if we include R2000's sample from yesterday, which showed Obama up 51-42.

Tomorrow's Rasmussen polls should be funny.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #32 on: October 04, 2008, 12:07:56 PM »
Good, no Palin-mentum so far.

I had the fear once this fundie is seen by 70 Mio. people on TV, the Mccain numbers would increase, but not so this time ... Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #33 on: October 06, 2008, 12:05:22 PM »
Monday, October 6:

Obama: 50 (nc)
McCain: 42 (-1)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #34 on: October 08, 2008, 12:02:32 PM »
Wednesday, October 8:

Obama: 52 (+1)
McCain: 41 (-1)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #35 on: October 08, 2008, 12:04:05 PM »
Never thought Gallup would show a "better" result than Dailykos ... Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #36 on: October 08, 2008, 01:22:33 PM »
Quote from: Democratic Hawk on October 08, 2008, 12:17:03 PM
Quote from: jmfcst on October 08, 2008, 12:14:07 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 08, 2008, 12:02:32 PM
Wednesday, October 8:

Obama: 52 (+1)
McCain: 41 (-1)

yeah, well this race has been over for 3 weeks now

It's not like they are all Obama +11 (unfortunately)

Unfortunately ? No. I'd rather like a constant 6-point lead than a 10%+ lead, because 6% is the margin where people don't stay at home because they think the race might be over in Obama's favor and 6% is also the margin where a very slight Bradley effect might be absorbed.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #37 on: October 10, 2008, 12:01:42 PM »
Friday, October 10:

Obama: 51 (-1)
McCain: 41 (nc)

These results show little major change in the basic structure of the race, although McCain did somewhat better in Thursday night interviewing, suggesting the possibility that the race may have some fluidity in the days ahead.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #38 on: October 10, 2008, 12:41:22 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on October 10, 2008, 12:38:00 PM
I suspect there is a bad sample (possibly Tuesday's sample) that was overly pro-Obama.

Which probably means Obama is down to 6-8 tomorrow.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #39 on: October 11, 2008, 12:02:07 PM »
Saturday, October 11:

Obama: 51 (nc)
McCain: 42 (+1)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #40 on: October 11, 2008, 12:31:53 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on October 11, 2008, 12:09:34 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 11, 2008, 12:02:07 PM
Saturday, October 11:

Obama: 51 (nc)
McCain: 42 (+1)

Expected, maybe even a slight uptick for Obama, maybe.

According to the RCP average, Obama is 0.1% away from 50% ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #41 on: October 18, 2008, 12:06:01 PM »

Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #42 on: October 19, 2008, 12:03:31 PM »
Sunday - October 19

RV:

Obama: 52 (+2)
McCain: 42 (nc)

LV (Expanded):

Obama: 51 (+1)
McCain: 44 (-2)

LV (Traditional):

Obama: 49 (nc)
McCain: 46 (-1)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #43 on: October 25, 2008, 12:03:03 PM »
Saturday - October 25:

RV:

Obama 51% (+1)
McCain 42% (nc)

LV (Expanded):

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 43% (-1)

LV (Traditional):

Obama 51% (+1)
McCain 44% (-1)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #44 on: October 26, 2008, 12:16:49 PM »
Sunday - October 26:

RV:

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 42% (nc)

LV (Expanded):

Obama 52% (+1)
McCain 43% (nc)

LV (Traditional):

Obama 50% (-1)
McCain 45% (+1)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #45 on: November 01, 2008, 12:08:00 PM »
Saturday - November 1, 2008

RV
Obama: 52% (nc)
McCain: 41% (nc)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 52% (nc)
McCain: 42% (-1)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 52% (+1)
McCain: 42% (-1)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #46 on: November 01, 2008, 12:12:09 PM »
Now, who is right ?

Zogby ? McCain+1 ?
Rasmussen ? Obama+5 ? *
Gallup ? Obama+10/11 ?

* indicates my choice
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #47 on: November 02, 2008, 01:03:32 PM »
Sunday - November 2, 2008

RV
Obama: 52% (nc)
McCain: 41% (nc)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 52% (nc)
McCain: 43% (+1)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 51% (-1)
McCain: 43% (+1)
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