Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread (user search)
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Author Topic: Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread  (Read 143265 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #25 on: October 26, 2008, 12:44:03 PM »
Zogby's 8 telephone battleground polls will be out tomorrow.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #26 on: October 27, 2008, 06:48:21 AM »
Zogby/Reuters/C-Span - Monday, October 27:

Obama 49.9 (+0.5)
McCain 45.1 (+1.0)

Research2000/DailyKos - Monday, October 27:

Obama 50 (-1)
McCain 42 (+2)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #27 on: October 28, 2008, 01:30:05 AM »
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 28, 2008, 12:03:38 AM
Zogby
Obama 49.0%(-0.9)
McCain 44.7%(-0.4)

McCain nets 0.5 today as more move to undecided.


For Zogby's weighting this looks about right. Obama still leads 51-35 with Independents. If we adjust it to 40D, 34R, 26I - Obama would lead by 6 or so.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #28 on: October 29, 2008, 06:01:58 AM »
R2000/DailyKos - Wednesday Oct. 29:

Obama 50 (nc)
McCain 44 (+1)

McCain had a good Tuesday sample (50-45 Obama)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #29 on: October 29, 2008, 08:35:22 AM »
Diageo/Hotline - Wednesday, Oct. 29:

Obama 49 (-1)
McCain 42 (nc)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #30 on: October 30, 2008, 12:41:38 AM »
Uh-oh, McSurge is over !

Zogby/Reuters/C-Span - October 30:

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 43 (-1)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #31 on: October 30, 2008, 06:35:20 AM »
R2000/DailyKos - Thursday Oct. 30:

Obama 50 (nc)
McCain 45 (+1)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2008, 07:28:03 AM »
The last days of Zogby's 2004 tracking:

6 days before the election it was

Bush 48%
Kerry 46%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=922
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #33 on: October 30, 2008, 08:37:15 AM »
Diageo/Hotline - Thursday, October 30:

Obama 48 (-1)
McCain 42 (nc)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2008, 08:42:30 AM »
Battleground is frozen for a few days now ...

Thursday, October 30:

Obama 49 (nc)
McCain 46 (nc)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #35 on: October 31, 2008, 07:34:35 AM »
R2000/DailyKos - Friday, Oct. 31:

Obama 51 (+1)
McCain 45 (nc)

Thursday sample only: Obama 52 (+2), McCain 44 (-1)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #36 on: October 31, 2008, 08:14:58 AM »
Diageo/Hotline - Friday, Oct. 31:

Obama 48 (nc)
McCain 41 (-1)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2008, 06:32:51 AM »
R2000/DailyKos does not show the narrowing that Zogby saw:

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 44 (-1)

Friday sample only:

Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 43 (-1)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #38 on: November 01, 2008, 10:14:22 AM »
Diageo/Hotline - Saturday, November 1:

Obama 51 (+3)
McCain 44 (+3)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #39 on: November 02, 2008, 01:37:07 AM »
I though Zogby is going to release another 2 rounds of battleground polls ?

When ? Tomorrow and Tuesday morning ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #40 on: November 02, 2008, 10:53:18 AM »
Diageo/Hotline - Sunday, Nov. 2:

Obama 50 (-1)
McCain 45 (+1)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #41 on: November 04, 2008, 01:13:04 AM »
Final Zogby/Reuters Tracking poll:

Obama 54.1 (+3.2)
McCain 42.7 (-1.1)

If this turns out to be the stunning victory for Obama, he will have done it with large leads among independents (24 points), women (20 points), moderates (32%) and those who registered to vote in the last six months (30 points).

He also wins 91% support from Democrats and leads in nearly every age group with the exception of those age 55 to 69, where McCain leads by just a half point.

McCain holds the support of 85% of Republicans and 73% of conservatives. He also leads by 7 points among whites.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1633
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #42 on: November 27, 2008, 01:05:49 AM »
Quote from: The Only Honest Love Song on November 27, 2008, 01:00:35 AM
So Alaska and North Dakota have Bradley Effects but no state in the south except Georgia does. And the Bradley Effect has magically vanished in the three states it supposedly appeared in in 2006. Yeah, that makes perfect sense. This is clearly the Bradley Effect as there is no other possible explanation for polls being wrong.

There was a Bradley-Effect in almost every Southern State. Take a look at this:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88407.0

I'll do a full analysis in the coming weeks, when I have some time.

For example there was no Bradley-Effect in California, maybe a Latino-Effect, because the very accurate SUSA poll showed Latinos at 22% of the electorate, but they only made up 18% and they supported Obama by a slimmer margin than the poll predicted. But Whites supported Obama exactly by the margin the poll predicted.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #43 on: November 27, 2008, 01:27:09 AM »
Quote from: The Only Honest Love Song on November 27, 2008, 01:19:00 AM
And those crosstabs have very high MoEs, usually double digits.

Not the "White" crosstab. Let's examine Alabama.

The latest SUSA poll surveyed 650LV in the state, of which 74% were White. The MoE for the overall sample was 3.8%, so the White-only sample probably had a MoE of about 4.5-5.0%.

The poll showed among Whites: McCain 78%, Obama 19%, Others 2%, Undecided 1%

The exit poll (with a lower MoE) showed: McCain 88% (+10), Obama 10% (-9), Others 2%

This cannot be explained with weighting or MoE-movement. AL-Whites lied.
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