2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

Talking of Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg ...

The CDU-candidate in this district, Vera Lengsfeld, is advertising with this:



(below it says: "We have more to offer.")



The CDU headquarters are not amused with this campaign ...

But considering the CDU candidate got only 11% in 2005 she's heading for failure anyway.

[Tender Branson]

Now the SPD is criticising the opinion poll institute "Forsa" - headed by SPD-member Manfred Güllner - for showing lower numbers for the party than other institutes, primarily headed by CDU-members ...

http://www.badische-zeitung.de/nachrichten/deutschland/spd-kritisiert-meinungsforschungsinstitut-forsa--18228290.html

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls out today show indeed very diverging numbers:

Forsa for RTL/Stern

CDU/CSU: 38%
SPD: 21%
FDP: 13%
Greens: 12%
Left: 11%
Others: 5%

Institute "Info" for the newspaper "Handelsblatt"

[Tender Branson]

New federal Emnid poll:

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 24%
FDP: 14%
Greens: 12%
Left: 11%
Others: 4%

Infratest-dimap poll for the August 30 Sachsen State Elections:

CDU: 39% (-2 compared with '04)
Left: 19% (-5)
SPD: 15% (+5)
FDP: 12% (+6)
Greens: 6% (+1)
Nazis: 5% (-4)
Others: 4% (-1)

Infratest-dimap poll for the August 30 Thüringen State Elections:

CDU: 34% (-9 compared with '04)
Left: 24% (-2)
SPD: 20% (+6)
FDP: 9% (+5)
Greens: 6% (+2)
Others: 7% (-2)

[Tender Branson]

If the SPD manages to overtake the Left in both Sachsen and Thüringen, that would be quite something positive to go into the final 4 federal campaign weeks.

In Saarland, which also holds state elections on August 30, the state-CDU is in for a trashing anyway (probably losing more than 10% compared with the previous elections), but they are still going to be about 10% ahead of the SPD, mostly because of the Left-strength in this tiny state.

[Tender Branson]

SPD-campaign posters are out:

[Tender Branson]

CDU Campaign Posters:













 

 

 

[Tender Branson]

Ughhh ! The Nazis strike again:

Extremist NPD party tells black politician, 'go home!'

Germany's far-right NPD party has called for a black Christian Democrat (CDU) politician to go home and urged its members in the eastern state of Thuringia to deliver this message to him personally.



Schall is described as integration specialist for Chancellor Merkel's CDU

Zeca Schall, who is under police protection following the NPD statements reacted defiantly to the threats which were posted on the group's website on Tuesday, saying he considered himself to be a Thuringian.

According to the Christian Democrat's party spokesman for the state, Heiko Senebald, Schall said he would not be cowed by extremist threats and that he would continue to work on the regional election campaign.

The 45-year-old German currently appears in a local poster campaign ahead of state elections on Aug. 30. The NPD referred to Schall as a "ratings-n" and said of Schall, who has been in Germany since 1988, that as he was "no longer needed" he should "directly head home to Angola."

CDU members in the eastern state immediately rallied behind Schall, calling the right-wing abuse, "inhuman" and a "violation of human dignity." The party on Wednesday submitted a request for criminal charges to be pressed, saying the NPD's statements were an incitement to racial hatred.

Chair of politics and culture at Berlin's Free University Hajo Funke praised the CDU's direct and rapid response to the verbal abuse but said Thuringia is not doing enough to prevent the spread of right wing ideas.

"They are a latecomer in preventing right wing extremism," he said. "They are one of the least active states in eastern Germany and in Germany as a whole, so it's good that they are finally starting to do something."

According to Senebald, the CDU and Thuringia do enough to combat racism. Calling Thuringia an open and welcoming state, Senebald said the NPD was barely represented in the state and referred to programs aimed at preventing right-wing extremism. These range from the reintegration of former extremists into society as well as helplines for people wishing to leave the groups.

Germany's Office for the Protection of the Constitution said put membership of Thuringia's NPD party at just over 500 in 2008, around 80 less than in 2007. The agency also referred to the party's structure as weakened through political infighting.

The party's statements against Schall are likely to reignite debate over whether the NPD, which is described by Germany's BND domestic intelligence agency as racist, anti-Semitic and revisionist, should be banned. A ban would require a parliamentary majority. The last attempt to achieve a ban failed in 2003.

The NPD currently has around 7,000 members and holds seats in the state parliaments of Saxony and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,4561154,00.html

[Tender Branson]

Ballot rankings for every state have been released:

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/zugelassene_parteien/BW09__Parteireihenfolge.pdf

SPD is ranked 1st on the ballot in 12 states, CDU/CSU in 4 states.

[Tender Branson]

Is it random?

Probably not. The FDP, Greens and Die Linke would have been first somewhere is that was ramdom.

It depends on the previous election results in each state. In 2005, the SPD finished first in 12 states, CDU and CSU in 4 ...

[Tender Branson]

Latest Infratest-dimap poll for ARD (August 11-12, 1000 Germans 18+)

CDU/CSU: 37%
SPD: 22%
FDP: 15%
Greens: 12%
Left: 9%
Others: 5%

Western Germany:

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 21%
FDP: 16%
Greens: 13%
Left: 6%
Others: 5%

Eastern Germany:

CDU/CSU: 31%
SPD: 23%
Left: 22%
FDP: 10%
Greens: 8%
Others: 6%

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Merkel (CDU): 62%
Steinmeier (SPD): 23%

Approval Ratings for frontrunners:

Merkel Job Approval Rating: 72%
Steinmeier Job Approval Rating: 57%

Turnout estimate:

71% will definitely vote
17% will probably vote
6% will probably not vote
5% will definitely not vote

http://service.tagesschau.de/infografik/deutschlandtrend/dt08/index.shtml?2009_0813extra

[Tender Branson]

German Campaign Gets Much-Needed Dose of Humor

By David Crossland in Berlin

Germany's election campaign is being livened up by satirical pledges to rebuild the Berlin Wall, send pensioners to the east, provide free cosmetic surgery for everyone and install a rabbit as the national symbol. Humor is urgently needed at this time of political torpor, comedians say.

Germany has been at pains to keep its politics as dull as possible since 1945, understandably so, some might say. Consensus and compromise prevail, and the scandals tend to be too complicated or too trivial to keep casual observers interested for long.



It has gotten worse in the last four years. Political debate has been stifled as the two main parties, Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives and the rival center-left Social Democrats, have been locked in an awkward coalition in which they've had to shelve their differences.

And there's a very real chance that coalition may be repeated for four more years after the Sept. 27 general election.

What Germany's political scene needs now more than ever is a refreshing injection of satire, or at least humor, and tentative attempts are underway to meet that need.

A bona fide party called Die Partei (The Party) is campaigning with a satirical program to rebuild the Berlin Wall, turn eastern Germany into a nature reserve and populate it with the nation's pensioners.

And one of the country's best-known comedians, Hape Kerkeling, has formed his own mock party that's "conservative, liberal, left-wing and a bit ecological" and pledges to provide free cosmetic surgery for everyone.

Bunny to Replace German Eagle

Its catchphrase, possibly based on a misunderstanding of Barack Obama's famous slogan, is "Yes, Weekend." And it wants to abolish the eagle as the national symbol and replace it with the "Federal Rabbit."

The media, desperate for a bit of light relief during what has so far been a downright boring election, pounced on Kerkeling's campaign. His news conference in Berlin on Tuesday to launch a mock-documentary style feature film about his candidacy attracted the kind of attention usually reserved for Merkel -- news channel n-tv carried it live, and some 100 reporters unwittingly became extras in his PR coup, feeding him questions and lapping up his jokes.

What about swine flu, Kerkeling, posing as his alter ego Horst Schlämmer with hideous false teeth, gray wig and a dirty trenchcoat, was asked. "I'm against it," he replied.

Other nuggets followed. His first foreign trip as chancellor will be to the Netherlands because that's just across the border from his home in the small town of Grevenbroich, which will incidentally become the new capital. He also had a message for the youth of today: "Children are our future."

Schlämmer, head of the HSP or Horst Schlämmer Partei, also promises a monthly income of €2,500 for everyone from birth.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,640663,00.html

Will the boldened part lead to Lewis voting invalid and write in Schlämmer ?

According to a new Forsa poll, Schlämmer's party would actually receive 18% if it really stands in the federal elections ...

[Tender Branson]

3 new polls by Infratest-dimap for the August 30 State Elections:

Saarland:

CDU: 38% (-10 compared with 2004)
SPD: 26% (-5)
Left: 15% (+13)
FDP: 9% (+4)
Greens: 6% (nc)
Others: 6% (-2)

Tie between Red-Red-Green and CDU/FDP.

Sachsen:

CDU: 38% (-3 compared with 2004)
Left: 21% (-3)
SPD: 13% (+3)
FDP: 12% (+6)
Greens: 6% (+1)
Nazis: 5% (-5)
Others: 5% (+1)

Majority for CDU/FDP.

Thüringen:

CDU: 34% (-9 compared with 2004)
Left: 24% (-2)
SPD: 19% (+5)
FDP: 8% (+4)
Greens: 6% (+2)
Nazis: 4% (+2)
Others: 5% (-2)

Majority for Red-Red-Green.

http://service.tagesschau.de/infografik/deutschlandtrend/dt08/index.shtml?ardvorwahlumfrage2009_08

[Tender Branson]

3 new polls by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for the August 30 State Elections:

Saarland:

CDU: 36% (-12 compared with 2004)
SPD: 26% (-5)
Left: 16% (+14)
FDP: 9% (+4)
Greens: 6% (nc)
Others: 7% (-1)

Majority for Red-Red-Green.

Sachsen:

CDU: 42% (+1 compared with 2004)
Left: 20% (-4)
SPD: 11% (+1)
FDP: 11% (+5)
Greens: 6% (+1)
Nazis: 6% (-3)
Others: 4% (-1)

Majority for CDU/FDP.

Thüringen:

CDU: 35% (-8 compared with 2004)
Left: 25% (-1)
SPD: 18% (+3)
FDP: 10% (+6)
Greens: 5% (+1)
Others: 7% (-1)

Majority for Red-Red-Green.

[Tender Branson]

Sample of the official ballot in Saarland.

(it says: "You have 1 vote" ... and then look where the line with the arrow is ending)

[Tender Branson]

Here's the root of all ballot paper evil. The Katherine Harris of Saarland:



Karin Schmitz-Meßner (State Election Supervisor)

[Tender Branson]

Absolutely.
The official position of the SPD is "only if we get to be state pm" (not sure about the Greens, but I've seen it taken for granted that that's their position too.) Obviously, the Left would loathe to bypass its first-ever chance to head a government. Still, the spin machine is in full swing already, a la "well, if (SPD+Greens)>Left, then a majority of the government MdLs wants the SPD to head the government".
Hope it won't come across as counting unlaid eggs...

According to a Spiegel-article, the Thüringen-Linke is willing to forego the PM post if a Red-Red coalition is possible, even if they run ahead of the SPD in they election. It's not even likely that Red-Red is possible from the electoral standpoint and let's see what the Linke does if the only possibility is Red-Red-Green.

[Tender Branson]

There's also a new Sachsen poll by IfM Leipzig for MDR:

CDU: 41% (n.c. compared with 2004)
Left: 20% (-4)
SPD: 14% (+4)
FDP: 10% (+4)
Greens: 6% (+1)
Nazis: 5% (-4)
Others: 4% (-1)

Majority for CDU/FDP.

[Tender Branson]

The Thüringen-CDU meanwhile sent out a 40-page infomercial to 1 Mio. households.

The opposition is crying foul (wasting taxpayer money and hidden election propaganda etc ...)

Sounds familiar ?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88481.msg1931094#msg1931094

[Tender Branson]

New Thüringen poll by IfM Leipzig:

CDU: 37% (-6)
Left: 23% (-3)
SPD: 20% (+5)
FDP: 9% (+5)
Greens: 5% (+1)
Others: 6% (-2)

Majority for Red-Red-Green.

[Tender Branson]

Is Wowereit being gay not a problem for him in national politics? I guess the people who wouldn't be comfortable with a gay chancellor are already voting CDU/CSU anyway?

85% of Germans are comfortable with a gay chancellor according to polls.

It's a non-issue.

[Tender Branson]

Is Wowereit being gay not a problem for him in national politics? I guess the people who wouldn't be comfortable with a gay chancellor are already voting CDU/CSU anyway?

85% of Germans are comfortable with a gay chancellor according to polls.

It's a non-issue.

Oh wow, I figured it was probably a super majority (like 60-70%), but not that high.

I´ve posted about it some 2 years ago. Take a look here:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=62167.msg1298836#msg1298836

(well, the actual figure was 79%, but is probably higher now ...)

[Tender Branson]

Latest constituency projection by election.de:



Interesting, because under the PR-system the CDU/CSU would only be entitled to receive 215 seats (out of 598, considering 36% CDU/CSU support).

So, how many overhang-mandates will the CDU/CSU win ? 30 ?

[Tender Branson]

Well, time for my predictions:

Saarland:

CDU: 34% (-13.5)
SPD: 27% (-4)
Left: 16% (+14)
FDP: 11% (+6)
Greens: 7% (+1)
Others: 5% (-3.5)

Sachsen:

CDU: 37% (-4)
Left: 21% (-3)
SPD: 14% (+4)
FDP: 10% (+4)
Greens: 7% (+2)
Nazis: 7% (-2)
Others: 4% (-1)

Thüringen:

CDU: 34% (-9)
Left: 24% (-2)
SPD: 18% (+3.5)
FDP: 10% (+6)
Greens: 6% (+1.5)
Nazis: 4% (+2)
Others: 4% (-2)

[Tender Branson]

Polls are now open in Saarland, Sachsen and Thüringen (state elections) and in Nordrhein-Westfalen (town council elections).

Alltogether about 21 Mio. people are eligible to vote. Polls are closing at 6pm.