The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Tender Branson]

NH (UNH):

46% Approve
49% Disapprove

http://www.wmur.com/politics/28464796/detail.html

NH (PPP):

46% Approve
49% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_07071118.pdf

I guess there is consensus ...

[Tender Branson]

Reuters/Ipsos:

49% Approve
46% Disapprove

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=10849

Quinnipiac:

47% Approve
46% Disapprove

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1624

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen (14-07-2011)

49% Approve (+1)
50% Disapprove (-1)

26% Strongly Approve (+3)
38% Strongly Disapprove (nc)

[Tender Branson]

Wisconsin (Badger Poll):

50% Approve
44% Disapprove

http://www.uwsc.wisc.edu/BP32PressRelease2_USpols_FINAL.pdf

[Tender Branson]

No new numbers from SUSA this month??

Have not been released yet. Maybe in the next few days.

[Tender Branson]

California (PPIC)

All Adults

52% Approve
42% Disapprove

Registered Voters

51% Approve
43% Disapprove

Likely Voters

48% Approve
47% Disapprove

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment, July 2011. Includes 2,504 adults, 1,619 registered voters, and 1,153 likely voters.

Interviews took place July 5–19, 2011. Numbers in above table are for all adults. Margin of error ±3%. Numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0711.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.


Obama is not winning the budget battle, though he's not exactly losing it either.

I wonder how the approval ratings of Congress, specifically the House, compare.

PPP's weekly poll says:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congressional Democrats are doing?

36-54

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congressional Republicans are doing?

30-60

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/7/21

Rasmussen says:

How would you rate the way Congress is doing its job?

  6% Excellent/Good
92% Fair/Poor

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_performance

[Tender Branson]

Gallup:

40% Approve
50% Disapprove

The next week probably won't be nice ...

[Tender Branson]

SurveyUSA July Approval Ratings (all polls conducted on July 26):

California: 50% Approve, 47% Disapprove (+2, nc)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c717d146-99e7-4de8-8217-9fb792fc2fb8

Kansas: 36% Approve, 61% Disapprove (+1, +4)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c9cb9d95-0451-467c-8613-efb0bf5d4a7e

Oregon: 44% Approve, 53% Disapprove (+6, -5)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=87dabdb7-5435-402e-891e-11b3bf475127

Washington: 47% Approve, 50% Disapprove (+1, +1)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c34262fe-7152-4e56-be8d-dd7e32b0f6dd

[Tender Branson]

This month, the SurveyUSA numbers actually make some sense with Obama between 40-45% nationally.

They made no sense with Obama at 50%.

[Tender Branson]

Gallup:

40% Approve (nc)
52% Disapprove (+2)

[Tender Branson]

MA (MassInc Polling Group):

57% Favorable
41% Unfavorable

About the poll: The MassPulse Quarterly Poll is conducted quarterly among representative samples of 500 Massachusetts residents age 18 and older.  The poll is conducted in English and Spanish among both cell phone and landline households.  This iteration of the survey was conducted from July 27-30, 2011.  The margin of sampling error is 4.4%.

http://031d482.netsolhost.com/WordPress/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/MPG-Trend-Monitor-Q3-2011.pdf

[Tender Branson]

CNN:

45% Approve, 52% Disapprove

Interviews with 860 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on August 1, 2011. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The sample includes 716 interviews among landline respondents and 144 interviews among cell phone respondents.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/08/02/rel12a.pdf

PPP:

46% Approve, 48% Disapprove - 50% Favorable, 44% Unfavorable

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, July 28, 2011 - July 31, 2011

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/7/28

[Tender Branson]

Gallup is also normalizing a bit:

43% Approve
48% Disapprove

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen:

47% Approve (+2)
52% Disapprove (-2)

24% Strongly Approve (+2)
39% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen is still at 47-52 today.

And:

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[Tender Branson]

Gallup is 43-48 (+1, -2) today.

They also have a state-by-state approval map for the first half of 2011:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/148874/Obama-Job-Approval-Higher-States.aspx

Interesting that Georgia, Mississippi and Arizona are so favorable for Obama, all other states are about as expected.

[Tender Branson]

Gallup down to 40-50 [-3, +2] again.

[Tender Branson]

PPP - DailyKos - SEIU:

47% Approve
50% Disapprove

51% Favorable
46% Unfavorable

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, August 4, 2011 - August 7, 2011

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/8/4

[Tender Branson]

Marist/McClatchy Newspapers Poll:

44% Approve
46% Disapprove

52% Favorable
41% Unfavorable

This survey of 1,000 adults was conducted on August 2nd through August 4th, 2011. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the continental United States were interviewed by telephone. Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the nation. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. To increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The two samples were then combined. Results are statistically significant within ±3.0 percentage points. There are 807 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points. The error margin increases for crosstabulations.

Link

CBS/NYT Poll:

48% Approve
47% Disapprove

This poll was conducted by telephone on August 2-3, 2011 among 960 adults nationwide who were first interviewed in two polls: a CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted June 24-28, 2011 and a CBS News Poll conducted July 15-17, 2011. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Aug11a-all.pdf

[Tender Branson]

New Jersey (Monmouth):

Adults: 54-37
Registered Voters: 52-39

The Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll was conducted by telephone with 802 New
Jersey adults and 730 registered voters from August 3 to 8, 2011. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.5 percent.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP40_1.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Will Obama top 50% ever again in Gallup? I know 15months is a long time in politics, but barring some sort of miracle, I think he's done for now.

Again, I maintain he's very lucky to have not touched the upper 30s yet. Imagine if this was Bush....

Forget Gallup. Gallup is probably on the lowest of low ranges for Obama right now.

Better follow the results of PPP. They have a proven record so far.

[Tender Branson]

New York State (Quinnipiac):

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

45% Approve (-12)
49% Disapprove (+11)

Voters split 48 - 46 percent on whether President Obama deserves reelection and say 49 - 34 percent they would vote for him over an unnamed Republican.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1636

[Tender Branson]

New York State (Quinnipiac):

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

45% Approve (-12)
49% Disapprove (+11)

Voters split 48 - 46 percent on whether President Obama deserves reelection and say 49 - 34 percent they would vote for him over an unnamed Republican.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1636

Wat.

It will be very interesting to see what pbrower does with his map now ...

[Tender Branson]

Unlike R2K (remember how I told you their numbers were suspect years ago?) or the new version R2L (PPP).

You won't give up, won't you ?

There´s no reason to believe that PPP fakes the results like R2000.

Take for example the Wisconsin SD 30 race, a race that was not polled by any other company before PPP. They found that the Democrat would win by 62-34, he won by 67-33. If we take into account the undecideds (4%), of which the Democrat gained another 3 points and the Republican 1, the projected PPP result would have been 65-35.

Now, if PPP made up numbers, why wouldn't they have said that the Democrat wins by 54-42, or by 56-41, or by 70-28 ?

PPP's continued accuracy over time shows that they actually went into the field in these districts and that they are not making up numbers out of the air. If they were really faking the numbers, they probably shouldn't be in the polling business but playing in the lottery, because their accurate predictions would win them most likely a jackpot.