Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 35,011
Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: -2.78
|
 |
« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2012, 11:00:33 AM » |
|
|
« Edited: February 28, 2012, 11:03:06 AM by Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC »
|
Michigan:
Santorum - 40%
Romney - 39%
Paul - 11%
Gingrich - 9%
Others - 1%
Ultimately, Michigan is going to be very close. Romney has a huge lead in absentee voters, but they only account for around 17% of voters. Santorum has a huge lead among Democrats, but they only account for around 8% of voters. Santorum WILL win today's vote, but what remains to be seen is if Romney's lead among early voters will be enough of a buffer to keep him in the lead. So far, Santorum has underperformed in polls when he has momentum, and he has momentum here again. He had it last week, then Romney had it, but now Santorum has it. It's possible he's maximized his momentum, but I don't think so. Ultimately, this is my least confident prediction so far, but I'm going with Santorum. If Romney wins, it wouldn't surprise me though... it'll come down to mainly how enthusiastic crossovers are, and how many absentee ballots still have to come in that weren't turned in before.
|
