The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[Former Kentuckian]

Just a few weeks ago, Mark Cuban was giving himself a 10% chance of running for prez in 2020.  Now he says it's 40%:

http://www.talkmedianews.com/white-house/2017/11/27/cuban-floats-40-percent-chance-2020-run/

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I'd love to see him challenge Trump in the Republican primary.

He'd be about as relevant as Jim Gilmore was.

What do you mean by "relevant"?  Will get about as many votes?  Will get about as much media coverage?

If Trump has one and only one challenger who's able to get on the primary ballot in more than a couple of states, then said challenger is the de facto non-Trump option in the primary, and will probably get a non-negligible number of votes, presumably many more than Gilmore got.  Now maybe that's only ~10%.  I don't know.  But that's still way more than Gilmore.

Now if there's a large field of challengers to Trump, then yeah, maybe Cuban is only getting ~1%.  But I don't think we're likely to get a slew of challengers.  Maybe one or two.

Cuban is a joke. Even the small chunk of anti-Trump Republicans and the even smaller chunk of those that will actually vote in the primary likely wouldn't vote for him.

I agree, he'd get smoked. People overestimate the number of anti-Trump Republicans. They overestimated them in the 2016 primary, they overestimated them in the 2016 general with whatever Evan McMullin and Gary Johnson were doing, and they're overestimating them now. And Mark Cuban as the flag-bearer of the NeverTrump movement? He's irrelevant. If you're going to go down fighting, at least try to get someone like John Kasich.

[Former Kentuckian]

Jason Kander's doing an event in Iowa right now:

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/w4s-fundraiser-meet-greet-w-jason-kander-tickets-39891029142

According to Iowa Starting Line, he's been in Iowa more this year than any other potential candidate, and that kinda makes me sad tbh

[Former Kentuckian]

In another anti-Trump move of defiance, Sen. Jeff Flake donates $100.00 to Democrat Doug Jones and his campaign against Judge Roy Moore.

https://twitter.com/JeffFlake/status/938160754490052609

Strong feeling one of these Never Trump-ers are going to primary him in 2020 for the purpose of just-because.

Uh, Flake's already retiring.

Or are you talking about Moore getting primaried?

Pretty sure they're referring to Flake or another Never Trumper primarying Trump ("another anti-Trump move of defiance" combined with the thread we're in)

[Former Kentuckian]

Senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, and Marco Rubio spoke at Politico's Women Rule Summit today

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/05/women-rule-summit-highlights-278447?lo=ap_c1

[Former Kentuckian]

Does anyone want Inslee to run? He seems like such a non-starter

[Former Kentuckian]

I wish people would stop asking Biden about 2020. He shouldn't be encouraged to run.

[Former Kentuckian]

Klobuchar has been in the news quite a bit

She phoned in to Hardball with Chris Matthews to talk about Doug Jones: http://www.msnbc.com/hardball/watch/sen-amy-klobuchar-the-people-of-alabama-have-spoken-1115350083754

She was on CNN last Friday to talk about Franken: http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/08/politics/amy-klobuchar-senate-al-franken-minnesota/index.html

She's also been in the news about Tina Smith, Franken's replacement, and for a new caregiver law: https://youtu.be/lnNy_MHV8rs

[Former Kentuckian]

The Economist talks to Eric Garcetti about 2020, and the mayor ends up using “O’Malley” as a verb:

https://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21732554-not-strange-idea-it-sounds-eric-garcetti-hopes-be-first-mayor

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Also, he continues to try to play it safe:

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But the best part of the story was this cartoon:

I hope using O'Malley as a verb becomes a trend.

[Former Kentuckian]

Weekly Amy Klobuchar news

Klobuchar has made the news for her reaction to the Fox-Disney deal:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fox-m-a-disney-senator/leading-u-s-antitrust-senator-urges-hearing-on-disney-fox-deal-idUSKBN1E92WT

http://variety.com/2017/politics/news/disney-fox-congress-hearings-amy-klobuchar-1202642693/

There was also, interesting, a poll in the Minneapolis Star Tribune asking whether she should run for President: http://www.startribune.com/poll-should-sen-amy-klobuchar-run-for-president-in-2020/421630883/

Klobuchar and Kamala Harris were part of a bill to prevent foreign cyber interference in elections: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senators-to-introduce-bipartisan-bill-to-prevent-foreign-cyber-interference-in-elections/

[Former Kentuckian]

Vanity Fair has a lengthy profile of Steve Bannon, including the news that he might run for president in 2020 if Trump drops out of the race:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/12/bannon-for-president-trump-kushner-ivanka

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What a MESS

[Former Kentuckian]

Bannon-world now pushing back against the news that Bannon has privately floated the idea of running for prez in 2020:

http://www.newsweek.com/steve-bannon-not-running-president-2020-trump-756264

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Messssss

[Former Kentuckian]

Booker praised for his marijuana legalization effort here:

http://www.freedomleaf.com/the-importance-of-cory-booker/

which I only bothered to mention because it includes this terrifying animated GIF:

Booker should sue over that horrifying gif

[Former Kentuckian]

Alright, here is my #hottake on some speculative candidates for 2020.

Republicans:
Declared:
Donald Trump
Jack Fellure (Minor)

Currently Speculated:
Steve Bannon
Bob Corker
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jeff Flake
John Kasich
Ben Sasse

Thoughts:
Not much to say about the GOP side of things, except the fact I think the majority of these candidates won't run. The most likely would have to be Steve Bannon, who has been locking horns with Trump recently, John Kasich, who has been vocally opposing Trump for a while now, and Carly Fiorina, who just wants to run another election campaign. Really, Fiorina is a wild card, and couldn't really take away any results from Trump. As for Kasich and Bannon, I could see Bannon take away some of Trump's radical base, but he would only win a few states in Cruz 2016 territory. As for Kasich, I believe he has a big shot at winning, but it'll be extremely tough the way the Republican base is right now.

Democrats:
Now, I'm gonna arrange Dems into a few different categories, ones who are likely, unlikely, and wild card candidates who may jump into the Democratic Primary. Comments will appear next to the candidates. Reportedly declined candidates will not be included in the list.

Declared:
John Delaney: Nothing to say about Atlas' meme man, he'll be lucky if he gets more than a couple votes

Likely Speculative Candidates:
Joe Biden: He has experience, he's well-liked among many national bases, he's the biggest star of the classic Democratic party, and he has the most polls shown kicking Trump's ass.
Martin O'Malley: O'Malley doesn't really have a chance, but if Biden or another stronger Democrat doesn't run him into the ground, he'll at least do better than he did in 2016.
Bernie Sanders: Still a star looked up to by many younger Democrats, Bernie possibly has another good run in him, but his age may prevent him from doing so.
Cory Booker: Booker would be a likely candidate whether any other strong Democrat runs or not. He's the compromise candidate between new age Progressive Democrats and Classic Obama-era Democrats.
Lincoln Chafee: Chafee is pathetic in every way. He'll run and withdraw almost immediately.
Terry McAuliffe: McAuliffe has a good chance of winning the election, as he's popular among many Democratic and Independent groups, but I don't see him winning the primary at all.
Jeff Merkley: Like McAuliffe, Merkley only has a shot of winning if the Democratic field is scarce, but if he could win, he could win big.

Unlikely:
Frederica Wilson: Her only claim to fame was a week-long Trump scandal. Her momentum died a long time ago.
Mitch Landrieu: Unknown Louisiana Mayor, doesn't have any name recognition nationally.
Eric Garcetti: Similar to Landrieu, but he's a little better known.
John Bel Edwards: Probably the least unlikely out of the unlikely candidates, but Bel Edwards will probably focus on a re-election campaign for Governor.
Eric Holder: Has some name recognition, but won't get far amongst more popular Democrats.
Bob Iger: Generic Trump-like Wall Street Democrat.
Tom Steyer: See: Bob Iger
Jason Kander: He has potential, but he should probably focus on getting elected to an office within his state, such as Governor, Representative, or primary McCaskill for another shot at the Senate.
Caroline Kennedy: Though she could be an appealing choice due to name recognition, she would be a relatively crippled candidate on Domestic issues without being elected to another position in the U.S. Government.
John Kerry: Less so but similarly to Bel Edwards, Kerry could be a viable candidate for running this election, but he's already been a failed nominee once, and I'm just not sure if he has it in him to run again.
Richard Blumenthal: One of the most unlikely candidates to run, will most likely stay in the Senate.
Tulsi Gabbard: Unpopular af.
Steve Bullock: Another unlikely candidate, I see him just running for another office within Montana.
Julian Castro: Not well known nationally.

Wildcard:
Deval Patrick: A popular Governor with the qualities of Cory Booker. Definitely a safe choice for Democrats, but I don't know how far he would get.
John Hickenlooper: He may be a popular Governor, but I'm unsure if he'd make it as far without the help of a KasichLooper ticket.
Kamala Harris: If her poll numbers go up within the Democratic Primary, she'll be one of the most likely candidates for the nomination
Amy Klobuchar: She's a strong Senator, but I don't know if she's ready to take the leap.

Other Thoughts:

• Some of the minor Democratic candidates are interesting, such as Greggory Figer (Nominee for MI Governor in 1998), and Harry Braun (Democratic nominee for U.S. Representative from Arizona in 1984 and 1986)
  
• The Libertarian party would become even more powerful if Bill Weld runs.

The Washington Post has noted that Amy Klobuchar staffers have "made no secret that she sees herself as a future presidential contender" ("Democratic lawmakers such as Amy Klobuchar start making 2020 moves — and the base starts making demands" article from May 8, 2017) and a September interview with Cosmopolitan was titled "Amy Klobuchar Is Not (Currently) Running for President." She's definitely thinking of running.

[Former Kentuckian]

Former DNC chair candidate, and South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg announced he was engaged today, further becoming one of the biggest names in the LGBT community as 2020 approaches.

Indiana, LGBT, appeals to the white working class - could be a great candidate for the Democrats.

In what world is he one of the biggest names in the LGBT community?

He’s all we talk about on Grindr.

"Hung masc top seeks fem bottom who admires Pete Buttigieg just as much as I do"

"Drug/Disease-free and donates to Pete Buttigieg. You be, too."

[Former Kentuckian]

Politico has a new story on Warren’s potential 2020 moves, saying that she “has spent the past year making a series of below-the-radar moves that would put her in prime position to run for president in 2020 if she decides to”:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/02/elizabeth-warren-2020-election-democrats-319045

The most revealing part is that people in her political orbit are themselves saying that she’s consciously changed her approach:

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Didn't Harry Reid ask Warren to run as he was leaving the Senate? She does appear to be taking a potential run seriously. Her newfound appreciation of the media after years of running from them should raise eyebrows about a potential run.

[Former Kentuckian]

Why would her partner say she would "absolutely do it" if she isn't considering?

I don't know, but it's up to Oprah and not her partner.

[Former Kentuckian]

Booker is starting a new weekly podcast:

link

I hope he reads his poetry

[Former Kentuckian]

Amy Klobuchar will be speaking at Future Tense (a collaboration between Slate Magazine, New America, and Arizona State University about free speech in the digital era) on January 30 in DC: https://slate.com/technology/2018/01/whos-afraid-of-online-speech-a-future-tense-event-in-dc.html

[Former Kentuckian]

For the second year in a row, Bernie Sanders will give his own response to the State of the Union, separate from the official Democratic response:

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/371237-sanders-to-deliver-his-own-state-of-the-union-response

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Yes, this is good news. There is nothing wrong with different perspectives.
Kennedy will deliver the standardized Democratic response. Sanders will speak to the progressives.

I guess I will take and much prefer the “standardized democratic response” then...

It's not as if Bernie is the only one doing this:

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Source: https://qz.com/1192720/trump-state-of-the-union-2018-how-to-watch-the-response-videos/

[Former Kentuckian]

Joe Kennedy asked if he'll run for president, and he gives a non-answer:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2018/01/26/representative-joseph-kennedy-iii-deliver-democratic-response-state-union-address/OohmntAyR3J49lwV9HNomK/story.html

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It's weird that no one says "No" to being asked if they're running anymore.

[Former Kentuckian]

Has Delaney's ad aired yet?

Yes, it aired in select Iowa markets during the Super Bowl.

I'm curious about if it will change anything in the state polling

[Former Kentuckian]

Amy Klobuchar will be on ABC's This Week today. Susan Collins will, too, but we know she ain't running while Klobuchar visited Iowa twice last year and has, according to the Washington Post last year, "made no secret" she's considering running (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democratic-lawmakers-such-as-amy-klobuchar-start-making-2020-moves-and-the-base-starts-making-demands/2017/05/08/2a7da116-31b3-11e7-9534-00e4656c22aa_story.html?utm_term=.0fc7d9655f2a).

Article about Klobuchar and Collins on This Week: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sunday-week-sen-susan-collins-sen-amy-klobuchar/story?id=56270170

[Former Kentuckian]

Amy Klobuchar was on NPR this past week talking about Russia: https://www.npr.org/2018/07/19/630417559/klobuchar-on-congressional-efforts-to-combat-russian-interference-in-elections

[Former Kentuckian]

Amy Klobuchar will be the keynote speaker at the Edward M. Kennedy Dinner in Denver, Colorado on September 22nd: https://denverdemocrats.org/county-post/2018-edward-m-kennedy-dinner-senator-amy-klobuchar-september-22-2018

[Former Kentuckian]

All those books have mediocre titles but it seems to be required that they have subpar titles.

Definitely nothing as pithy Dreams From My Father or The Audacity of Hope, although Harris tries.

Some of them are amusingly bad: Landrieu's could be a white supremacist memoir, Castro's sounds like the title of a fan-fiction Hangover sequel.

Sasse's is just one word away from being something great - Them: Why We Hate Each Other--and How to Heal Prevail.

I'm just waiting for a sitting politician to buck the trend and write total fiction. How about writing kafkaesque horror? Scifi? Murder mytseries? Nobody wants to read ghost written memoirs.

Stacey Abrams wrote romance novels under the name Selena Montgomery, and at least one was published after she was elected to Georgia's legislature

https://www.harpercollins.com/author/cr-104432/selena-montgomery/