National Tracking Poll Thread

[Eraserhead]

It's really high time that pollsters like NBC/WSJ, ABC/WaPo, CNN, YouGov, etc. weigh in again on the national numbers. Basically all we've gotten since the debate are trackers and that Pew poll.

Agreed.

[Eraserhead]

It's really high time that pollsters like NBC/WSJ, ABC/WaPo, CNN, YouGov, etc. weigh in again on the national numbers. Basically all we've gotten since the debate are trackers and that Pew poll.

Agreed.

Well one of them have, and we're up 49-47 in the ABC/WaPo poll.

49-46 actually.

[Eraserhead]

The RCP average has, pending Gallup, reverted to a tie.

Curiously they didn't include last weeks O+3 YouGov poll dewspite YouGov having been polling since 2004 yet new outfits get included. If they did, then Obama would probably have squeezed ahead.

They tend to cherry pick in order to help their guy.

[Eraserhead]

Gallup shows no changes at all today on anything. (LV: R+2, RV: O+2, Obama Approval: +1)

[Eraserhead]

The RCP average somehow found .1% for Romney so he could grab the "lead" back. lol.

[Eraserhead]

RAND Poll (Obama +5.15)
Obama- 49.66% (+.1)
Romney-44.51% (-.53)

The Debate bounce has officially faded on RAND. Romney is back to his pre-debate levels of support. Just waiting on Rasmussen and Gallup.
Anyone know why RAND Polls aren't included in the RCP Average? It's not an Internet poll, and they seem to be including the IBD-TIPP Daily Tracker in their average. Seems pretty wired to me.

Interesting but extremely unorthodox methodology.

Plus, showing better than average results for Obama is no way to get yourself on RCP.

[Eraserhead]

Gallup is odd.

Would have been a decent day for Obama if not for that and the Dailykos/PPP poll.

[Eraserhead]

The Gallup poll shows that relative to 2008, Obama has collapsed in the south, fallen some in the east, and is stable in the Midwest and West. This is consistent with polls showing him losing Florida and tightening in Pa., and would seem to indicate trouble in Va. But it would also explain the OH/WI/IA/NV firewall he's got going. Remember when Obama polled reasonable well in TN? That's gone.

Too bad nobody ever polls TN, so we could know for sure.

[Eraserhead]

Gallup:

LV - Romney 51(+1)/45(-1)

RV - Romney 48(+1)/46(-1)

Dear lord, how strict is their LV screen? Gallup is getting pretty close to jumping the shark.

[Eraserhead]

I guess Gallup isn't expecting black people in the south to vote in this one...

[Eraserhead]

Way too early to know what the debate bounce will be like in the trackers (if there is one). All of these are majority pre-debate.

Plus, as I've pointed out before, the coverage of these debates is usually more important than the debates themselves. The coverage of this debate has definitely been more favorable toward Obama than his opponent (although it admittedly doesn't quite compare to the Romney lovefest that happened after the first one).

It will take days for things to sink in.

[Eraserhead]

THE BOUNCE HAS BEGUN

Ah, Obama didn't go up. 

Uh, he did in Rasmussen (and even that is only 2/3 post-debate).

[Eraserhead]

Looks like a pretty good day for Obama in the national polling and a pretty weak day for him in the state polling.

[Eraserhead]

Looks like a pretty good day for Obama in the national polling and a pretty weak day for him in the state polling.

If down 6 on Gallup and tied on Rasmussen and one point ahead on PPP, you need a new definition of "pretty good."  

Nobody takes Gallup seriously. Not even Romney's Republican pollsters. Plus there are national polls besides those three, perhaps you haven't heard.

And the main point was that all of the movement in the national polls so far today has been toward Obama, maybe you missed that too. Obama is very close to taking back the lead nationally even on the RCP average which doesn't include some of the polls that have been more favorable to Obama.

[Eraserhead]

The debate bounce is sweeping across the country. I invite my Romney-supporting friends to jump aboard the Obama Train before it's too late!

State polling disagrees.

Well, Rasmussen's state polling disagrees anyway.

But then again, hasn't it felt like the state and national polling have been at odds over the entire course of this election? Hmm... maybe they'll finally meet in the middle.

[Eraserhead]

According to Gravis Marketing, Romney is getting 95% of Republicans but Obama is only getting 83% of Democrats.

[Eraserhead]

Still a bit early but it looks like Obama may have gotten a baby bounce from the debate. Better than nothing, I suppose.

[Eraserhead]

NBC/Wall Street Journal National Poll on Sunday? Nice! Finally.

[Eraserhead]

Yes NBC/WSJ poll released during MTP Sunday morning. I'm going to guess Obama +1. Last one was done right before Debate 1 and had Obama +3.

I'll predict a tie (which is what I think the race actually is right now too).

[Eraserhead]

I really don't know if Obama is going to win or not at this point but Gallup is very likely to be embarrassed either way unless they play with their numbers last minute to save face.

There is literally no evidence in any of the other national or state polling to suggest that Obama is trailing by anything close to 7%.

[Eraserhead]

Gallup RV:

Romney 48% (-1)
Obama 47% (+1)

[Eraserhead]

Gallup RV:

Romney 48% (-1)
Obama 47% (+1)

BOOM!

BUST!

Registered voters, and enthusiasm is down on the D side.

Down compared to what?

[Eraserhead]

Gallup RV:

Romney 48% (-1)
Obama 47% (+1)

BOOM!

BUST!

Registered voters, and enthusiasm is down on the D side.

Down compared to what?

2008 and to the other party.  Obama's Strongly Approve number has dropped 5-6 points in the past week. 

Ya think?

[Eraserhead]

Gallup:

Obama Approval:

51% (+2)

45% (-1)

Registered Voters

Romney 48% (nc)

Obama 47% (nc)

Likely Voters

Romney 51% (nc)

Obama 46% (+1)

Slowly coming back to Earth?

[Eraserhead]

Something worth noting about Rasmussen: He's the only guy who weights by party and he recently changed from D+3 to D+1. That may explain some of Romney's "bounce" in his numbers.

That would constitute a very Republican electorate. I seriously doubt we're going to see that in two weeks but we'll know soon enough.