Illinois and Kansas swinging to Clinton vs. Obama 2012 just feels so wrong. (user search)
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  Illinois and Kansas swinging to Clinton vs. Obama 2012 just feels so wrong. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Illinois and Kansas swinging to Clinton vs. Obama 2012 just feels so wrong.  (Read 2277 times)
Eraserhead
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« on: December 12, 2016, 05:19:14 AM »

I can think of some reasons for why this happened (Illinois: DuPage lol/Kansas: Johnson hurting Trump much more than Clinton/etc.) but these were two of Obama's "home states" and literally everything around them swung to Trump vs. Romney 2012.



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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2016, 07:01:17 AM »

A couple of other things to take into account that make these results seem strange:

Yeah, Illinois is technically one of Clinton's "home states" too but there has never been any evidence of anyone giving a damn about that before. Barack Obama slaughtered her in the 2008 primary and Bernie Sanders came within a whisker of upsetting her here despite the fact that it had what should have been some of the worst demographics in the country for him outside of the south. Plus, the swings to Trump almost everywhere else in the midwest were YUGE.

Johnson garnered a lot of support in Kansas and I could see it being the type of state where it came pretty overwhelmingly from Republicans/conservative leaning indies... but Kansas was also, somewhat surprisingly, one of Jill Stein's best states. As of now it looks like it was probably her fourth best in the entire country in terms of the percentage of the vote she received (although California may push it down to fifth if they ever finish counting their votes). She wasn't even on the ballot here in 2012! Also, Obama and Sanders both crushed Hillary in the caucuses here.

Yet these states still swung to Hillary in the general vs. Obama 2012.

Kansas did vote pretty strongly against Trump in their GOP caucus but Illinois voted for him in their primary.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2016, 08:34:38 AM »

Lots of questionable late night/early morning rambling in this thread by yours truly.

Do keep in mind that the statewide swings here are marginal.  They're there though so let's overanalyze them!
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