May Primaries Coverage Thread

[Eraserhead]

Wait so what's the deal with Oregon? Is it not a legit primary?

[Eraserhead]

Wait so what's the deal with Oregon? Is it not a legit primary?

Delegates are awarded by the state convention

You should point out you're talking about the GOP side.

Indeed, I'm only interested in the Democratic Primary results tbh.

[Eraserhead]

Nikki Haley to meet with donors after surprising showings in GOP primaries: report

Nikki Haley will meet with donors next week after a series of surprisingly strong showings in Republican primaries, a source said in a new report.

A person close to the former South Carolina governor said Thursday that Haley will attend a retreat Monday and Tuesday to thank about 100 of her biggest campaign donors, reported the Wall Street Journal.

Haley is not expected to discuss her political future or encourage them to contribute to other candidates, the report notes.

“Sometimes it takes more than one run to secure the nomination – look at John McCain and Mitt Romney,” said GOP fundraiser and strategist Eric Tanenblatt, who plans to attend the retreat. “She created something of a movement and built a coalition of Republicans and independents and even some conservative Democrats.”

https://www.rawstory.com/nikki-haley-trump-2668212455/

She's probably angling a 2028 run as these numbers clearly show an appetite for her in the GOP electorate. The problem though is that 2028 will be a free for all as Trump won't be running.

If he loses, he's running and easily winning the nomination in 2028.

[Eraserhead]

So I'm thinking Willamson is going to have her best showing of the primary in Oregon. It seems she's the only non-Biden option on the ballot (?)

[Eraserhead]

Biden is doing a little better than I expected in Nebraska and a little worse than I expected in Maryland. I would have thought Maryland would have been one his best states in the country.

I guess one of those states only having the ghost of Dean Phillips while the other had multiple options including the all-important "Uncommitted" is a big factor though.

[Eraserhead]

Biden's gonna break 70% in WV?

The Demosaur is extinct, I guess.

Well, considering he still lost 30% of the vote and I seriously doubt a lot of that came from left-wing and/or pro-Palestine opposition in that particular state, I wouldn't say they're extinct but they are most certainly endangered. The three-punch combo of Bush-Obama-Trump did a number on them for sure.

[Eraserhead]

Biden is doing a little better than I expected in Nebraska and a little worse than I expected in Maryland. I would have thought Maryland would have been one his best states in the country.

I guess one of those states only having the ghost of Dean Phillips while the other had multiple options including the all-important "Uncommitted" is a big factor though.

There's still ~150K VBM left in Maryland I believe, so Biden will likely go up to 88-89% I think by the end

That would still only make it a pretty average state for him.

[Eraserhead]

Nebraska:
-surprisingly strong for Biden; 10% protest vote in a red state like this is not too shabby
-pretty awful for Trump, he did better than Kansas, but barely cracking 80% in a red state like this is awful for him

West Virginia:
-Kind of funny that it just about ties Minnesota for Biden’s worst state. Was expecting even worse here
-Obviously of one of Trump’s best states, but the fact that protest votes are still hitting 12% in West Virginia of all places is a warning sign

Maryland:
tbd but Biden probably should've been able to hit 90% here, given it was closed. Typical performance for Trump since it seems Haley will end up with about 21-22%

I mean there were other factors at play but technically New Hampshire and Hawaii are Biden's worst states so far.

[Eraserhead]

I wish "Uncommitted' was an option on the Oregon ballot. We may see Williamson's best performance of the race later tonight though (unless there's a crazy amount of write-ins).

[Eraserhead]

I wish "Uncommitted' was an option on the Oregon ballot. We may see Williamson's best performance of the race later tonight though (unless there's a crazy amount of write-ins).

NYT has a spot for write-ins in their tally

I could see something like:

Biden: 82%
Williamson: 10%
Write-In: 8%

Just a guess though. Who knows...

[Eraserhead]

What time do polls close in Oregon ET? 11?

[Eraserhead]

Even with no "Uncommitted" option, Biden is doing a bit better than I expected in Oregon so far (albeit still considerably worse than Obama 2012).

[Eraserhead]

If it holds, Biden doing ever so slightly better in Oregon than Maryland is definitely not something I would have expected. I suppose it can be waved off as one state having "Uncommitted" on the ballot while the other didn't but still kind of funny.

[Eraserhead]

Biden down to 87.2% with the write-ins surging in Oregon.

[Eraserhead]

He dropped under 87%.

Yeah, I'm thinking he ends up around 85%.