Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

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Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Well, to he's going realease polls from these states every Monday now (I guess).  I expect pretty much all of them to move slightly more toward McCain as compared to where they were last week.

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

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Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Well, he's going realease polls from these states every Monday now I think. I expect pretty much all of them to move slightly more toward McCain as compared to where they were last week.

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

Phil is very adamant in the case of PA falling to McCain this time, but I still think he underestimates the stubborness of the depressing steel working towns that, along with the inner cities, help tilt PA to the dems.

I don't think McCain has a realistic chance in PA, either, but something is going on with the working class towns in Wisconsin.  In West Allis (very working class town), for example, there is no enthusiasm for Obama, even among Dems.  Now Obama will probably win Wisconsin, but those voters are "persuadable" this time, which they weren't when Kerry ran in 04.

Do you live in WI?

I find a lack of enthusiasm from WI Dems a little hard to believe considering how easily he crushed Clinton there...

I also don't think there is any significant chance of him doing worse then Kerry and Gore did there.

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Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Well, he's going realease polls from these states every Monday now I think. I expect pretty much all of them to move slightly more toward McCain as compared to where they were last week.

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

Phil is very adamant in the case of PA falling to McCain this time, but I still think he underestimates the stubborness of the depressing steel working towns that, along with the inner cities, help tilt PA to the dems.

The ground game is mixed in Phila, and the White areas look less strong than they should.  I'll wait until 6:00 PM (and still probably won't make up my mind).

What would you be making your mind up about exactly anyway?

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Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen. I stick around when times are tough on me. You'll have to learn to do the same.

How could I leave and deprive you people of my amazing predictive powers?

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Well, obviously the head to head numbers don't jive with the economic numbers at all.

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I want to see what's going on in Wisconsin (if anything).

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I posted a commentary yesterday, but things are becoming more clear now, so my mind is clearer, so to speak. 

The sudden movements and shifts in this race are becoming pretty easily explainable, at least as far as I can tell.  Two things are occurring:

1) Decay from McCain's convention bounce (as noticeable in Rasmussen)

2) A pretty strong shift in party ID, owed to one of two factors: 1) Decay from the Republican Convention or 2) economic crisis.  Given Gallup's movement (which is the best firm in measuring these things) pre and post-economic crisis, my best guess is that the latter is making the stronger impact.

The combination of these two things leads us from getting McCain +3 to +5 results last week to us seeing Obama +3 to +5 results this week.

Also, it is important now to remember the rules concerning party ID.  Party ID shifts because one of two things is occurring: 1) Republicans in the sample are choosing to ID as Indys, Indys choose to identify as Dems, and so on and so forth or 2) Republicans start becoming less likely to answer phone calls or get past LV screens.  It is impossible to tell at this point which of the two is stronger in occurrence right now, though I have my reasons (based on looking at the national polls) to think that it is the latter.

One other point:  Right now, we are in the middle of the storm.  Based on what I see, it's going to take, at minimum, until next Monday before we have a completely clear picture, maybe not until next Thursday, depending on the continuance of the economic crisis.

As such, I expect Gallup to be at least Obama +4 or +5 today.

I doubt it. I hope I'm wrong though.

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Friday - September 19, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 48% (nc)
Obama: 48% (nc)

Boring

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BORING!

Why are Rasmussen's numbers so rigid?

Unlike Senator Obama, Scott Rasmussen is not a fan of change, Iosif.

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NH and Colorado Pres/Senate numbers later today. Good stuff.

Sweet. Those are the two states I really want to see at the moment (from Scott anyway).

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The UNH poll was 47-45.  ARG's poll was 48-45  

The UNH poll was crap (taken over 7 days and bad demographics) and the ARG poll was taken at McCain's high point two weeks ago.

Very interested in the Ras poll coming out at noon.

Also the ARG poll was an ARG poll.

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Interesting to see that the public thinks Obama is the better debater. I'd say they are about even, although I'd probably give Obama a slight edge if I had too.

Also I'm certainly looking foward to that VA update.

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Thursday-October 2, 2008
Obama 51%(nc)
McCain 44%(-1)

Coolness.

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We are getting state polls from MT, KY, NE & NM. Let's see just how badly Mac is wounded here.

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Time to start looking to 2012. Who's up? Palin? Romney? Huck?

With those names, you should start looking to 2016

Agreed. Obama is just too talented a politician to lose to anybody in that group.

That said, I'm still not completely writing McCain off.  I'm getting close though.

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Well, McCain seems to be on the move in all of the tracking polls today.

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Gallup and Rasmussen are at odds again.

This is almost like when my parents used to fight.

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Drudge is trying to pretend that McCain is making a "comeback". Good luck with that one. I'm still far from convinced. These tracking polls do tend to bounce around a little but Obama is still well ahead.

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Interestingly, both candidates have lost support the past few days and there are now more undecideds.

Fluid, and the bulk of America, I suspect, could shift.

Whatever lets you sleep at night, right?

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Excellent news and just as anticipated.  Should narrow even more in the upcoming days. Mac is back.

Why's that? Stocks are tumbling again and Obama will probably get a debate bounce.

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Excellent news and just as anticipated.  Should narrow even more in the upcoming days. Mac is back.

Why's that? Stocks are tumbling again and Obama will probably get a debate bounce.

Politico/InsiderAdvantage said the independents chose McCain as the winner last night, and they are left-wing hacks.

Give me a break. They just suck in general, and you are cherry picking. Every other poll out there showed Obama winning among indies easily and every single poll out there (even the IA one) showed Obama winning the debate overall.

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Isn't "spreading the wealth around" the basis of socialism?

No, not really. It is about owning the means of production. But as to spreading the wealth around, hasn't Bush been the master of that? Granted a lot of what is "spread" isn't means tested.  Well I guess pumping money into sick banks is sort of means tested actually. Whatever. 

Torie, take your knowledge elsewhere please.

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Monday- October 20

Obama: 50 (-1)
McCain: 46 (+1)

Cetrain voters: Obama + 2

Don't know how this jives with one of the worst news day of the campaign for McCain.
 
 
 

We aren't seeing any of the Powell/fundraising news impact here yet (if there is any).

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Monday- October 20

Obama: 50 (-1)
McCain: 46 (+1)

Cetrain voters: Obama + 2

Don't know how this jives with one of the worst news day of the campaign for McCain.
 
 
 

We aren't seeing any of the Powell/fundraising news impact here yet (if there is any).

A candidate's fundraising is quite clearly one of the major factors in determining how one votes.

Read the part in bold again.

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Let's just hold the election this Tuesday.