NY-20 Special Election

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Phone conversation between a very, very angry Republican PAC contact and a reporter in Albany.

http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/12541/natl-gop-trust-pac-voices-its-discontent

Wow.

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Republican and Conservative congressional candidate turned down an invitation to participate in the WMHT/Times Union debate on Thursday because he already had his own multi-media event planned, said Adam Kramer, a spokesman.

Tedisco will conduct a “Jim Tedisco in 3-D” campaign forum at 7 p.m. Thursday at his campaign headquarters in Halfmoon, Kramer said.

It'll be Murphy and Sundwall only.

Damn. I was hoping they were really going to play a 3-D movie about Tedisco. I would check that for sure.

"Jim Tedisco in 3-D". lolz.

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Hmm... who thinks that MSM will try to turn this race into referendum on the stimulus package? Raise your hands.

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No matter who wins, this race means little to nothing.

Ah. Tedisco is struggling then...

Actually, I think he is still favored, but one district doesn't mean anything in terms of national momentum.

Okay. I assume that you will still hold this position if, despite his troubles, Tedisco wins a large victory.

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I can't say that I watched the debate. Forgot about it. The Limbaugh thing is interesting though. Limbaugh is not popular here.

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I got some fun mail today...





These are poor quality pictures but you get the point. The Limbaugh one is my personal favorite!

By the way, almost every piece at least mentions Obama by name and states that Tedisco would try to impede his works.

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It looks like Tuesday might actually be pretty damn exciting. I guess I'll be giving a mini-ground report. haha.

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Of course, if the deadline for military absentees is extended, we likely won't know who wins for at least a week or two.

Would people still vote on Tuesday though? I mean, if it's not even close, I don't think the military ballots will matter too much...

It's probably going to be very close though.

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I'm expecting a close race, +/- 3 points either way.

Uh-oh. I actually agree with RowanBrandon on something! Despite Tedisco's ''issues'', the major R registration advantage in the district should not be underestimated, especially in a special election.

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New poll by Siena Research Institute:

Murphy (D): 47% (+6)
Tedisco (R): 43% (-2)
Sundwall (L): 2% (+1)

“Murphy has sealed the deal with Democrats, leading 84-11 percent, while Tedisco has the support of less than two-thirds of Republicans, leading 64-27 percent. Independents are virtually tied, with Tedisco leading 45-44 percent, after trailing with independents by six points two weeks ago and leading by 14 points four weeks ago,” Greenberg said.

Favorable Ratings:

Murphy: 49% favorable, 38% unfavorable
Tedisco: 48% favorable, 41% unfavorable
Sundwall: 7% favorable, 14% unfavorable

Gillibrand: 76% favorable, 18% unfavorable
Obama: 65% favorable, 28% unfavorable

This SRI 20th C.D. survey was conducted March 25-26, 2009 by telephone calls to 917 likely voters. It has a margin of error of + 3.2 percentage points.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedFiles/Home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/20th%20CD%20SNY%20Poll%203%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf

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Nate Silver says Steele is toast if the GOP loses this. And considering that Nate Silver is the single best political analyst of all time...

Probably, which is kind of amusing since Steele has very little control over the dynamics of a race like this. It will be used as an excuse to get rid of him for other reasons but it will be a pretty weak excuse imo. I can't root against another GOP bloodbath though!

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Now if the Poughkeepsie Journal endorsed Murphy, that would be a bit of a surprise. Hurm.

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Obama/Murphy ads seem to all over the interweb today.

Should we have a seperate final predictions thread?

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Sources are telling me a 4-6 point win for Murphy tonight...

"Sources"?

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I wonder how much attention this will get on the cable news (aka comedy) programs tonight...

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I wonder how much attention this will get on the cable news (aka comedy) programs tonight...

How does someone make a joke about this race? Has Tedisco really said anything that would get howls from late night comedy programs? I don't see "Tedisco only got 44% in NY 20!" getting a lot of laughs.

I was talking about show like Hardball not the Late Show. Hardball just seems like a comedic program to me in certain ways.

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Count two more votes for Murphy... me and my pops just voted. The turnout was bigger than I was expecting at least.

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Count two more votes for Murphy... me and my pops just voted. The turnout was bigger than I was expecting at least.

where do you live? Is that a strong Democratic area?

Well, I vote in Pleasant Valley (in Dutchess County). It's not a very Democratic area.

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How did a creature as pathetic as Tedisco get as far as he did in politics I wonder?  Is the area a black hole for political talent or something?

Does that mean you're supporting Murphy, Torie?

I doubt it.  I'm supporting Tedisco, but I'm not happy about it.  Just look how ugly he is!  Where in the world does he get his haircut??

Sesame Street

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When will we know the results of this election?

Final results? Not sure, hopefully tonight. Early returns should start coming in after 9 PM eastern time (when polls close).

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To promote historic health care reforms.

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"Bronx GOP" sounds like an oxymoron.

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So what's the best site for results?

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Hmm... looking like a long night possibly... still very early though...

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I'm holding out hope for my Murphy by .6% prediction.