CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ??? (user search)
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Poll
Question: Who makes runoff?
#1
Antonio Villaraigosa (D)
 
#2
John Chiang (D)
 
#3
Delaine Eastin (D)
 
#4
Doug Ose (R)
 
#5
John Cox (R)
 
#6
Travis Allen (R)
 
#7
Other (specify candidate)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 124

Author Topic: CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???  (Read 36640 times)
King Lear
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 981
Russian Federation


« on: January 29, 2018, 05:31:03 PM »

There was another forum tonight at UCLA between the top 6. It's on Youtube for anyone who wants to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=513&v=RcWa-X0RxwA

Doug Ose was left out again, hopefully he'll drop out.
If he does, Travis Allen has a good chance to move ahead of Villaraigosa. Check out the most recent poll.
I'm not sure what happened to your other thread, but I made a google doc to show how easily this could become R vs R if the Democrats can't decide which candidate to get behind. I used the numbers from the Suvey USA poll. Newsom would have to lose support for this to happen, but it is possible.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11R2CM4AwYVW5kCeVNYQtZgpPnF7JFYWe42eutd9h-Os/edit?usp=sharing

In this scenario, assuming Ose fails to gain support, Allen and Cox Receive 85% of the Republican vote. While Newsom, Villariagosa and Chiang split most of the Democrat vote, with Eastin picking up 12%. Also this assumes that 15% of voters will vote for other candidates besides the current top 6.

In this scenario the results look like this:
1   Travis Allen          1,022,122   17.45%
2   John Cox                  989,906   16.90%
3   Gavin Newsom          907,902   15.50%
4   John Chiang          856,356   14.62%
5   Antonio Villariagosa   849,327   14.50%
6      Delaine Eastin          353,203   6.03%   
7   Other                  878,615   15.00%
   Total                          5,857,430   


This is ridiculous, the California Democratic Party may be stupid enough to let the Top-two primary screw them out of a few comptitive House races (CA-39, CA-45, CA-48), but they will never let two Republicans make the general election runoff for governor. Gavin Newson will make the runoff no matter what due to the fact he has more money and name recognition then any of the other candidates combined (Democrats and Republicans), and he will either face Villariagosa or a Republican (most likely Cox due to his ability to self-fund) in the runoff.
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King Lear
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 981
Russian Federation


« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2018, 05:55:20 PM »
« Edited: January 29, 2018, 06:03:01 PM by King Lear »

By the way, here's my early prediction of the California Gubernatorial Primary results.

2018 California Gubernatorial Primary Results:
Gavin Newsom: 25%
John Cox: 20%
Travis Allen: 15%
Antonio Villariagosa: 15%
John Chiang: 10%
Delaine Eastin: 5%
Doug Ose: 5%
Others: 5%

And the general election.

2018 California Gubernatorial Election Results:
Gavin Newsom: 60% WINNER
John Cox: 40%
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King Lear
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 981
Russian Federation


« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2018, 07:40:23 PM »

What the hell is wrong with Newson? He supports Single-Payer healthcare, stricter Gun Control, and was one of the First people to have the guts to support Same-Sex marriage, aren't these the issues Democrats are spose to stand up for?
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