The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[MechaBambi]

Maybe Buttigieg, Kander, Gabbard, and Swalwell will all run.  Then we'd have four candidates under age 40 on Election Day, which has got to shatter any previous such record.  

EDIT: I guess Joe Kennedy could run too, but he turns 40 in October 2020, so he wouldn't quite qualify, if we're talking about being 40 on the day of the general election.  He'd still be in his 30s during the primaries though, which I guess might be the more relevant benchmark.

Gonna be fun watching four interchangeable white guys each argue that they're the one best positioned to capitalize on the upswell of youth activism, meanwhile 79-year-old Bernie is still out there scooping up a supermajority of the millennial vote.

I only see Gabbard running if Sanders doesn't; if she tries running against Sanders by arguing that her foreign policy is more anti-interventionist than his, she's even wackier than I thought.

[MechaBambi]

Bernie visiting Jackson, Mississippi on April 4 to hold a town hall with Mayor Chokwe Lumumba:

http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2018/mar/28/mayor-lumumba-planning-town-hall-event-jackson-ber/

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Also co-hosting a discussion with Rev. Barber at Duke University on April 19:

https://divinity.duke.edu/events/bernie-sanders-william-barber-conversation-rescheduled-april-19

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[MechaBambi]

I still think the punditocracy at large is overestimating the chances that Biden will run.  He’s come down a little on PredictIt in recent day to 58% chance of running, but that still seems way too high to me.  I wouldn’t put it higher than a 1 in 3 chance (and that hasn’t really budged for me for a long time now).

People hear him attacking Trump, and assume that that means he’s ready to run for president, but I don’t see it that way.  It’s clear that he wants to be “in the national conversation”, and is happy to go on the campaign trail for fellow Dems, but does he actually want to spend his twilight years in one of the most stressful jobs in the world?  I don’t know.  I have my doubts.

He said in December that he would only run if "nobody has moved in that I think can do it," and in another interview he praised Booker and Harris as examples of the next generation of Democratic leadership. Does this mean that if either Booker or Harris run (which is close to 100%), Biden will stay out? Or is he truly arrogant enough to believe he's the only one in the country who can stop Trump?

[MechaBambi]

Why is O'Malley even pretending he's not running for President again?

[MechaBambi]

Brian Schatz not running for president:

http://www.civilbeat.org/2018/04/schatz-for-president-in-2020-dont-count-on-it-he-says/

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Good on him for giving a straight answer. Schatz was on my dark horse list but he's smart enough to know that 2020 is not the right time for him. No idea why he's not constantly touted as a "rising star" in the party, as he seems to understand its future direction better than almost anyone.

[MechaBambi]

Harris will be the keynote speaker at the DNC's annual Women's Leadership Forum on May 18. Gillibrand and Kander (who is notably not a woman) will also be there, along with Hillary Clinton who will speak at the opening reception.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/hillary-clinton-dnc-fundraiser?utm_term=.fkPYMVV0l#.nmZX9pplG

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[MechaBambi]

Harris is definitely running, and may be the first to announce.

[MechaBambi]

Gabriel Debenedetti did a feature on Bernie's digital media operation that includes several tidbits about what a 2020 bid would probably look like.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/04/bernie-sanders-is-quietly-building-a-digital-media-empire.html

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I also found this interesting, and somewhat relatable. Gotta keep that clout up:

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[MechaBambi]

This year’s CAP Ideas Conference will be held on May 15th, and there are already some confirmed speakers, once again including several prospective 2020ers:

https://capideas.org

E.g….

Cory Booker
Sherrod Brown
Bill de Blasio
Kirsten Gillibrand
Joe Kennedy
Seth Moulton
Chris Murphy
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren

Honestly, I think this might be the very first 2020 hint of any kind dropped by Sherrod Brown.

Inslee and Klobuchar are now on the list of speakers as well.  I guess Biden and Harris are the most prominent 2020 names not on the speaker's list at the moment.  Harris was there last year though, so maybe she'll be back and just hasn't confirmed yet.  Or maybe she has a scheduling conflict.

Remember when Bernie was notably absent last year, and CAP's stated rationale was that previous presidential candidates weren't invited? Did that "rule" only apply to 2017, or...

[MechaBambi]

Bernie heading to Pennsylvania this weekend for three events:

• A roundtable on criminal justice reform with Philly DA Larry Krasner and Princeton professor Keeanga-Yamahtta Taylor, moderated by Jacobin podcaster Daniel Denvir (https://twitter.com/People4Bernie/status/991711014960840704)
• Rally at Philadelphia city hall for Braddock mayor John Fetterman, who is running for Lt. Gov. (https://johnfetterman.com/rally-john-bernie/)
• Rally in Lancaster for Jess King, the presumptive nominee for PA11 (https://events.mobilizeamerica.io/jesskingforcongress/event/1045/)

The Larry Krasner event is a nice get, as he's recently been in the news for allowing Meek Mill to be released on bail, along with a sweeping series of sentencing reforms that make him by far the most progressive big city DA in the country. Along with the Marijuana Justice Act, it's a clear sign that Sanders is leaning hard into criminal justice in an effort to broaden his message, as well as outflank or at least match Booker's and Harris' primacy on these issues.

[MechaBambi]

Bernie heading to Pennsylvania this weekend for three events:

Somehow overlooked that he's also doing a Saturday rally in Allentown for PA15 candidate Greg Edwards (whose nomination is much less certain than that of Jess King):

http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pa-7-bernie-sanders-edwards-20180428-story.html

More than an effort to inspire supporters or cultivate allies, this whole "holding three or four events in two days" thing seems increasingly like a test of Sanders' physical ability to run another national campaign.

[MechaBambi]

Jason Kander to headline the Rockingham County Democrats' fundraiser in Portsmouth, New Hampshire on Saturday. It's his 11th visit to the state.

http://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-kander-to-headline-rockingham-county-democrats-fundraiser/20271975

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[MechaBambi]

Biden appears to be laying his populist agenda out for 2020:

This is your brain on class collaborationism.

What's even more baffling is that he spends other parts of the speech fulminating against non-compete agreements and other anti-labor laws, which are in large part the result of wealthy donors buying local elections and lobbying statehouses.

[MechaBambi]

Joaquin Castro keynoting Maine’s Convention.

Joaquin's not running for anything besides re-election.

[MechaBambi]

According to the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" column, Kamala Harris is seen by the GOP as the most likely to win the nomination.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/kamala-harris-seen-as-top-2020-democrat-by-gop

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Only one such "top Republican" is quoted, so take it with a grain of salt. I will say that I have noticed conservative outlets (like the Examiner) going after Harris with increasing frequency in recent months. Same is true with Sanders.

[MechaBambi]

Wondering why you haven't heard much about a potential Luis Gutierrez campaign since he put out some hints last November? Well, here's your answer:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gutierrez-passes-on-presidential-run
https://soundcloud.com/siriusxm-news-issues/rep-luis-gutierrez-d-il-on-why-he-wont-be-running-for-president/s-y3ie1

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Would've been an interesting case study in just how far an intensely Latino-focused strategy can take you in the Democratic primaries. I always thought that if he did run, it would only be to increase the salience of immigration as an issue, not to actually win. Maybe he figured he didn't need to run in order to do that.