2018 House Predictions

[Cold War Liberal]

Right now I'd say anything from D+25 to D+50 is possible, with D+30-35 being what I think is most likely. D+1 to D+4 in the Senate is also possible (D+4 ONLY possible if it's Bredesen v. Blackburn in TN and Ted Cruz takes a popularity hit, normally I'd say TX is off the table but IIRC Cruz's favorables are lower in TX than Roy "Mary was underaged too" Moore's were in AL on Dec. 12, sooo...), with D+2 being most likely to me (Heller loses and Sinema wins in AZ).

In 2020 I'd lean towards a large Dem victory in the Presidential election, which would coattail Congressional Dems to a few more House and Senate seats (how many House seats depends on both 2018 and 2020).

If Trump wins in 2020, 2022 will be an absolute massacre for Republicans in the House and Senate, and 2024 would be bad too.