From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage (user search)
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  From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage (search mode)
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Author Topic: From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage  (Read 24974 times)
Coastal Elitist
Tea Party Hater
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,252
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: 2.26

« on: September 30, 2018, 08:03:28 PM »

Maybe I misread things but I believe you mentioned exit polling for house races. I may be wrong, but I was under the impression that house races do not do exit polls.
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Coastal Elitist
Tea Party Hater
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,252
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: 2.26

« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2018, 10:40:47 AM »

CA-1 is not a flippable district. It it home to multiple secession movements including the state of Jefferson and New California. It also includes the most Republican counties in the state. Also CA-4 has a Democrat running against the Republican and in a fantasy scenario would flip before CA-1, but neither is realistic. Both of these districts are extremely white there are no shy Hispanic voters to turnout. I point this out because your timeline has been mostly reasonable.
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Coastal Elitist
Tea Party Hater
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,252
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: 2.26

« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2018, 01:26:29 PM »

CA-1 is not a flippable district. It it home to multiple secession movements including the state of Jefferson and New California. It also includes the most Republican counties in the state. Also CA-4 has a Democrat running against the Republican and in a fantasy scenario would flip before CA-1, but neither is realistic. Both of these districts are extremely white there are no shy Hispanic voters to turnout. I point this out because your timeline has been mostly reasonable.
Relax the vote is 20% in. Ds were leading in Idaho for a while.
Comments are based off his exit poll, which has CA-1 50-50 and CA-4 100-0.
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Coastal Elitist
Tea Party Hater
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,252
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: 2.26

« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2018, 04:49:51 PM »

CA-1 is not a flippable district. It it home to multiple secession movements including the state of Jefferson and New California. It also includes the most Republican counties in the state. Also CA-4 has a Democrat running against the Republican and in a fantasy scenario would flip before CA-1, but neither is realistic. Both of these districts are extremely white there are no shy Hispanic voters to turnout. I point this out because your timeline has been mostly reasonable.

See, all you had to do was wait on CA-01 Tongue
lol, I like your timeline, but some of these California races are a tad unrealistic.
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