Newfoundland and Labrador election, 2019

[beesley]

One of the more interesting races will be in St John's East-Quidi Vidi. Lorraine Michael, the former NDP leader is not seeking re-election, and 6 weeks into her job as leader, Alison Coffin is standing there. It should be a hold for her, given there will be a slight swing to the NDP from the Liberals if polls are correct, but George Murphy, the former NDP MHA for part of the riding is a Liberal star candidate. They're likely to lose the other riding, previously held by Gerry Rogers.

There are definitely a few ridings the PCs could (and I suspect, should) gain, including Terra Nova, Mount Pearl-Southlands and Exploits. If the NDP have a good night, then although PEI may lose a Jordan Brown from its legislature, the NLHA might gain one in Labrador West, which is the only seat in Labrador the Liberals could realistically lose in my view. They shouldn't however. Candidates matter a lot in these sorts of ridings.

[beesley]

Because why not? Here's a projection.

Liberal 21
PC 18
NDP 1

1   Cape St Francis   PC Hold
2   Carbonear-Trinity-Bay de Verde   Liberal Hold
3   Conception Bay East   PC Hold
4   Conception Bay South   PC Hold
5   Ferryland   PC Hold
6   Harbour Grace-Port de Grave   PC Gain
7   Harbour Main   PC Gain
8   Mount Pearl North   PC Hold
9   Mount Pearl-Southlands   PC Gain
10   Mount Scio   PC Gain
11   Placentia-St Mary's   Liberal Hold
12   St John's Centre   NDP Hold
13   St John's East-Quidi Vidi   Liberal Gain
14   St John's West   Liberal Hold
15   Topsail-Paradise   PC Hold
16   Virginia Waters-Pleasantville   PC Gain
17   Waterford Valley   Liberal Hold
18   Windsor Lake   PC Hold
19   Baie Verte   PC Gain
20   Bonavista   Liberal Hold
21   Burin-Grand Bank   PC Gain
22   Exploits   PC Gain
23   Fogo Island-Cape Freels   Liberal Hold
24   Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune   PC Hold
25   Gander   Liberal Hold
26   Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans   Liberal Hold
27   Lewisporte-Twillingate   PC Gain
28   Placentia West-Bellevue   Liberal Hold
29   Terra Nova   PC Gain
30   Burgeo-La Poile   Liberal Hold
31   Corner Brook   Liberal Hold
32   Humber-Bay of Islands   Liberal Hold
33   Humber-Gros Morne   Liberal Hold
34   St Barbe-L'Anse aux Meadows   Liberal Hold
35   St George's-Humber   Liberal Hold
36   Stephenville-Port au Port   Liberal Hold
37   Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair   Liberal Hold
38   Labrador West   Liberal Hold
39   Lake Melville   Liberal Hold
40   Torngat Mountains   Liberal Hold

[beesley]

32   Humber-Bay of Islands   Liberal Hold

FYI...incumbent MHA Eddie Joyce is running as an independent and according to local media, in all likelihood he will be re-elected.

I can believe that, it was the projection I was least sure on.

[beesley]

Final projection with only one change, as suggest by @the506

Liberal 20
PC 18
NDP 1
Independent Liberal 1

1   Cape St Francis   PC Hold
2   Carbonear-Trinity-Bay de Verde   Liberal Hold
3   Conception Bay East   PC Hold
4   Conception Bay South   PC Hold
5   Ferryland   PC Hold
6   Harbour Grace-Port de Grave   PC Gain
7   Harbour Main   PC Gain
8   Mount Pearl North   PC Hold
9   Mount Pearl-Southlands   PC Gain
10   Mount Scio   PC Gain
11   Placentia-St Mary's   Liberal Hold
12   St John's Centre   NDP Hold
13   St John's East-Quidi Vidi   Liberal Gain
14   St John's West   Liberal Hold
15   Topsail-Paradise   PC Hold
16   Virginia Waters-Pleasantville   PC Gain
17   Waterford Valley   Liberal Hold
18   Windsor Lake   PC Hold
19   Baie Verte   PC Gain
20   Bonavista   Liberal Hold
21   Burin-Grand Bank   PC Gain
22   Exploits   PC Gain
23   Fogo Island-Cape Freels   Liberal Hold
24   Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune   PC Hold
25   Gander   Liberal Hold
26   Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans   Liberal Hold
27   Lewisporte-Twillingate   PC Gain
28   Placentia West-Bellevue   Liberal Hold
29   Terra Nova   PC Gain
30   Burgeo-La Poile   Liberal Hold
31   Corner Brook   Liberal Hold
32   Humber-Bay of Islands   Independent Gain
33   Humber-Gros Morne   Liberal Hold
34   St Barbe-L'Anse aux Meadows   Liberal Hold
35   St George's-Humber   Liberal Hold
36   Stephenville-Port au Port   Liberal Hold
37   Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair   Liberal Hold
38   Labrador West   Liberal Hold
39   Lake Melville   Liberal Hold
40   Torngat Mountains   Liberal Hold

[beesley]

12   St John's Centre   NDP Hold
13   St John's East-Quidi Vidi   Liberal Gain

What's the rationale behind predicting that the NDP would hold St. John's Centre - which they have only held since 2011 and where the new candidate is not the leader - but that they would lose St. John's East-Quidi Vidi - which has been an NDP seat since 1993 and where the leader is running - and she seems to have done well in the leaders debate etc...?

FWIW, the final poll by Mainstreet has NDP support in the St. John's area at 24% - which would actually be an improvement over what they got in 2015 while the Liberals have dropped and the PCs have gained...in that context its hard to see the Liberals gaining any seats from anyone

It's mostly due to the localised politics there with George Murphy, plus I've compensated for the Liberal loss by predicting them as having lost Mount Scio, which most people have as Liberal. That would bring it in line with expected support/polling averages. But I see what you're saying, I have less confidence in these projections than some of my others.

[beesley]

How can a minority government be "the most plausible outcome" when the NDP+Independents will be lucky to win more than 2 seats combined?

"[L]ucky to win more than 2 seats combined" is a bit melodramatic lol

It's not hard to see the NDP holding onto both their districts, with Coffin retaining the most orange seat in the province & the NDP holding onto a pretty urban area. That's 2 seats right there.

Independent-wise, Paul Lane can hold onto Mount Pearl-Southlands, & re: Joyce, I think name recognition & length of service will end up outweighing partisanship & political scandal, imo.

So, 2 NDP, 2 Indys; say the Libs walk out of election night with 19 seats to the PC's 17: boom, minority government.

At this point, I admit the NDP+Ind seat total max is 4 (most likely it will be 2-3 imo), but still, that's not enough to make a minority the most plausible outcome. Even with a tie PV. One party usually has a geographic advantage. Look at the 1989 election. Essentially it was a tied PV, but the Liberals won a 10 seat majority.  

It's a shame that's the case, but I agree that it is. A majority for either Ball or Crosbie would be a disaster. If you're wondering, I'm supporting the Conservatives this fall (although I'm not in Canada currently.)

If the PCs won a majority, they may still not have a single MLA from the Long Range Mountains/Labrador parts of the province. It should be an interesting night.

[beesley]

How can a minority government be "the most plausible outcome" when the NDP+Independents will be lucky to win more than 2 seats combined?

"[L]ucky to win more than 2 seats combined" is a bit melodramatic lol

It's not hard to see the NDP holding onto both their districts, with Coffin retaining the most orange seat in the province & the NDP holding onto a pretty urban area. That's 2 seats right there.

Independent-wise, Paul Lane can hold onto Mount Pearl-Southlands, & re: Joyce, I think name recognition & length of service will end up outweighing partisanship & political scandal, imo.

So, 2 NDP, 2 Indys; say the Libs walk out of election night with 19 seats to the PC's 17: boom, minority government.

At this point, I admit the NDP+Ind seat total max is 4 (most likely it will be 2-3 imo), but still, that's not enough to make a minority the most plausible outcome. Even with a tie PV. One party usually has a geographic advantage. Look at the 1989 election. Essentially it was a tied PV, but the Liberals won a 10 seat majority.  

It's a shame that's the case, but I agree that it is. A majority for either Ball or Crosbie would be a disaster. If you're wondering, I'm supporting the Conservatives this fall (although I'm not in Canada currently.)

If the PCs won a majority, they may still not have a single MLA from the Long Range Mountains/Labrador parts of the province. It should be an interesting night.

Because I'm a pedantic a$$hole, I have to point out that they're called MHAs in Newfoundland

Anyway, Newfoundland is prone to some wild swings, so expect the unexpected tonight.

I've clearly been reading too much about my beloved British Columbia.

[beesley]

Have to say I found watching the results quite tedious. Needless to say my prediction was a bit off:

Although I predicted the NDP performing better in SJC then the other ridings, which was correct, a gain in Labrador West seemed unlikely to me, not because it was impossible but it just seemed like that. I didn't think this was the right year for history to repeat itself.
Torngat Mountains was extraordinary - was there some sort of local issue?
The Liberals performed better in St John's than I expected with Mount Scio and Virginia Water staying in their hands.
Most of us predicted the Central ridings correctly - it was just Bonavista and Lewisporte respectively where things went unexpectedly.

[beesley]

Another thing to consider about Lab W: under Jack Harris's leadership, Randy Collins made it the party's "second seat" a generation ago.  So there's definitely history here.

Would he have felt more or less surprised, than the other politician called Randy from Labrador, I wonder?