WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[BlueDogs2020]

Read the article from The Hill (I can´t post links yet)

[BlueDogs2020]

Lean D--->Likely D

[BlueDogs2020]

How would you rate the race if Blankenship has a high publicity third party campaign and successfully gets on the ballot under the Constitution party?
I would say Likely D.

[BlueDogs2020]

Inside Elections just moved WV from ¨Tossup¨ to ¨Tilt D¨ and I totally agree. There is no reason to think that Manchin doesn´t have a slight advantage and I think other analysts will come around with even more polling besides that fact that Manchin has a consistent lead.

They also moved ND from ¨Tossup¨ to ¨Tilt R¨----- which I don´t totally agree with, I think Tossup is a good place.

[BlueDogs2020]

I think he will surprise people and win by about 10, possibly more with Blankenship.
It is a huge blind spot of Cook and Sabato to have this as a Tossup and Montana as Lean (Sabato) or Likely (Cook). Both should be at Lean. Inside Elections and Fox finally moved WV towards Manchin.

[BlueDogs2020]

The Trafalgar poll is really good news; it caused RCP to shift West Virginia into ¨Lean D¨, which I would agree with. Manchin will most likely vote for Kavanaugh, which will basically make him safeif the polling is accurate; I strongly doubt he will win by that much, but I wouldn´t be surprised if Morrisey barely breaks 40%

[BlueDogs2020]

Alright, so it seems that many dont think he'll join the BGs.

I ask another question, which group is he most likely to join?
Blue Dogs
New Dems
Progressives

He doesn´t seem like a New Dem, and despite being called a Progressive by TYT he would more likely be a Blue Dog.

[BlueDogs2020]

Still just trying to spoil the race for Manchin---- it´s funny how she would prefer Morrisey--- total idiot.

[BlueDogs2020]

I feel like Montana and West Virginia are the two races which lean Democratic right now because Republicans kind of fumbled the ball but where there’s still potential for a GOP upset. Tester has a much higher floor than Manchin but also a much lower ceiling, so it’s hard to tell which state is more winnable for the GOP.

I disagree; Manchin has a higher ceiling. If the WV race continues on it's path and the national GOP continues to stop putting resources, Manchin wins by about 15. New batch of polls yesterday had him leading 54-41 and 56-40.

[BlueDogs2020]

I bet he would lead 54-42

[BlueDogs2020]

Bigger question...
Does Manchin win WV-3? How many districts will he win

If he's winning statewide, he's winning WV-03. That's the most ancestrally Dem part of the state.

He will definitely win WV3 even if he loses statewide; read Monmouth Poll's article on the race.
There is a likely chance that Manchin wins the district by more than 10% or even around 20%.
This will definitely help Ojeda.

[BlueDogs2020]

GOP is underestimating Richard Ojeda's chances. He is a decorated Army Vet and can successfully defend this seat
 He will surely jump in, if the seat is vacated

I agree, the only reason he lost was that Trump campaigned for his opponent, and Trump is ridiculously popular in WV-3. Ojeda would actually have a shot in a statewide race if Trump wasn´t president, even under a Dem president if they aren´t super unpopular in WV.