When will Missouri go blue?

[un]

Not for a while. Missouri is pretty much a Safe R state at this point, ever since the close results in 2008, it's been going further and further red on a national level, and only went for McCaskill in 2012 cause of her opponent. It's much closer on a state level, but still not within a margin that would be convincing. There is however, a path to a blue Missouri. It's small, but the main place you have to look is the State Auditor election, the one place where Democrats won in 2018 Missouri. They won by 6 points, for two reasons. One, they swing the suburbs in their favor in the future, the easier of the two goals, since Democrats have had a large swing in suburban areas in 2016 and 2018, even in Missouri, where the suburbs are more Republican than average, like with McCaskill. Of course, most suburbs went to the Democrats in 2018 for State Auditor. Second, the much harder goal, don't get destroyed in rural Missouri. In 2016, Hillary lost the state by 20 points, a lot of it due to Trump sweeping rural Missouri, north and south, by margins around 65% and 80%, to Clinton who only had around 30% at best, and 15% at worst. In the State Auditor election, the Democrats didn't get absolutely destroyed, they still lost by a lot, but nothing compared to Clinton. So while the path to winning Missouri is extremely small, less than 1% small, it's certainly there. But that won't be seen for a while, and certainly not against Trump.