The Lief Reservoir of Simple Truths and Smart One-Liners

[Atlas Force]

This is one of the dumbest things I’ve seen a candidate who would otherwise be favored do

[Atlas Force]

I kinda think I see where liberals are coming from. They believe the country elected Bill Clinton twice, then elected Al Gore, then Bush won (but should have never been there), then the country twice elected Obama and then a year and a half ago elected Hillary Clinton.

They believe the country is more left than right. That the only reason the Supreme Court is right is because of George W. Bush and Donald Trump putting Alito, Roberts, Gorsuch and another conservative on the courts, and that those should have been Al Gore and Hillary Clinton (or Obama) appointments.

It is kind of hard to question the legitimacy of Roberts and Alito on those grounds considering they came after Bush won reelection with a majority of the popular vote.

Oh I agree, and their premise is incorrect. They think Bush and Trump didn't win the election, even though in America, they most certainly did since we elect our Presidents based on the electoral college, not the popular vote. In Trump's case, he won the electoral college by a rather sizable majority.

Republicans have this deluded fantasy that the left thinks that Bush and Trump are legally illegitimate Presidents because they lost the popular vote. Nobody is actually trying to dispute that, they're simply advocating for ending the broken system of the Electoral College in the first place. From a legal standpoint, of course Bush and Trump are legitimate Presidents. From an ethical standpoint, they got to that office by exploiting a broken system that undermines the values of democracy.

[Atlas Force]

Love it when Atlas discards a candidate based on a poll that uses 2014 for its sample, has multiple flaws, and has a small sample of only 500 people. But I guess Atlas will be Atlas.

[Atlas Force]

Gotta love the white boys who wouldn't know a racist caricature if it bit them in the face.

[Atlas Force]

Back to Lean R with the Siena poll. That was brutal.

It’s not even a complete poll.

Don't let common sense and a grounded understanding of margins of error get in the way of typical Atlas overreaction...

538 still has the seat as a tossup, where it should be.

[Atlas Force]

Rossi is going to narrowly win this fall.

It is tied (so far) in a poll with Rossi having 84% name recognition and Schrier having 59% name recognition, and in which Trump has only slightly negative approvals (which seems unlikely for this district). Realistically that looks rather more like tilt/lean D than tilt/lean R.

Doesn't Washington polling often times overstate things for Republicans?

Yes, in fact polls overestimated Rossi in both 2008 and 2010. So, Bagel, you could, you know, actually listen to what residents of Washington have to say about this race, instead of believing in your narrative. It might do wonders for your happiness.

[Atlas Force]

Short answer--Why bother (see Hillgoose above)

Long answer--Coal power plants are going to keep closing, WV mines are going to keep declining and shut down as the coal gives out, even the met coal mines (a major one will close this week for "geologic reasons").  Fat Nixon can lie to them all day, it doesn't change reality.

Their population pyramid is totally fubar'd.  They have fewer people than they did in 1980.
They have fewer people than they did in 1950.  They have 262,000 people between the ages of 55-64 and 212,000 between the ages 10-19.  They had 30,000 births in 1980 and 18,500 last year.  They are not a magnet for and are in fact hostile to the idea of immigration.   They are a lock to have fewer people in 2050 than they do now.  They don't have a Senator who can drag stuff into the state like they once did.  They live in geographically difficult terrain where infrastructure is difficult to build and maintain.  There is no compelling reason economically to build and maintain such infrastructure.

Save for the Eastern Panhandle and Morgantown (and even Morgantown is iffy) there is no reason to expect anything different from West Virginia.  Why bother.

What

How the hell is this absurd and ignorant? Every word of that post is true, and it's backed up by facts and figures.

Politician refuses to believe that WV is full of bitter people who hate it when black people also get welfare money (that they feel should only go to “hardworkin’ folk”—aka white people) and especially hate it when black people kneel.

He is the kind of person IceSpear is talking about when mocking the socialist avatars for wanting to trade West Virginia for Colorado and Virginia.

As someone who 1) isn’t that socially liberal and 2) despises Trump for mostly far right economic policy and supports Democrats since they’re slightly less of corporate sellouts than the GOP and do not think it is wise to (even if there’s truth to it in varying degrees across the country) sh**t on rural areas and is probably considered by some (although PNM seems to like me) in the same group as one of those socialist avatars who want to trade VA for WV, that post was too substantive to belong here.

[Atlas Force]

People were "mean" to you because you were incredibly naive in your support for Kavanaugh.

And an internet forum is not the best example to summarize why a nation is the way it is.

[Atlas Force]

This is the same poll that has Heller up 2, right? Certainly explains a lot.

Laxalt has family ancestory politics in NV, he's a top notch candidate

Democrats are still struggling to win the NV governorship I see. Reminder that they haven't won it in 24 years.

Where would Atlas be without such top notch #analysis?

[Atlas Force]

If you're at all on the fence about contributing more resources to mental health in America, go see Atlas Forum.

[Atlas Force]

This forum has an unhealthy obsession with West Virginia and have proposed no real solutions to help it.

[Atlas Force]

What a JUNK from CNN again! Gillum ain't up 12 Points.

Scott has a 63-17 Approval when it comes to his response to "Michael". It could very well be that Republicans are underpolled in the Panhandle. If that's the case you'll get these sort of Numbers.

Everything I don't like is junk! And it's Fake News CNN!!1!

Trumps JA in FL is waaay to low.

Every Poll that Clinton News Network has conducted have Democrats up...doesn't make sense.

Imagine being dumb enough to think CNN is biased towards Clinton...

They are. Liberal Media. Nuff said.

Yes because being being located in a big city where many elites who are socially liberal means by default they were biased towards Clinton.

[Atlas Force]

Are people really freaking out about a 1% decline at 538 and a +.03 R in the GCB average? I guess it is Atlas.

[Atlas Force]

I was about to ask "Has this forum learned nothing about drawing conclusions from early returns?"  But then I realized that you don't need to ask questions you already know the answer to.

[Atlas Force]

As much as Republican elected officials are to blame, the media's hard-on for calling races quickly is also to blame. It creates the notion that the race is over (and the media doesn't deal with any of the fallout from that).

[Atlas Force]

None of them. They’re all scum

Much lesser then Republicans they defeated.)))

They want to tax me more. Any one whos trying to steal my money is a scumbag. The republicans are scumbags too, just less so since they dont want to steal as much

I tolerate taxes when their purpose is justified. That's the difference between me and you.

It’s nevef justified. Think about it, the government is a pimp and we’re all working hoes. We’re the ones earning the money, why should Big Daddy Government take any. Like a pimp, govt says they’ll “take care of you” but that’s really just to keep you dependent on Big Daddy G. If the govt just f’ed off and let us keep our own damn money, I think we’d all be better off

Have fun without roads, police and safe drinking water. These are the type of things we take for granted but they only exist thanks to government funding. Government can always be improved but whining about taxes just shows your level of entitlement.

[Atlas Force]

The NCGOP could literally decide to send state police to kidnap the families' of the state Supreme Court and only release them if they upheld Harris winning and Bagel and Calthrina would still insist that the Democrats protesting their actions are the real problem because they're being "uncivil" and "sore losers".

[Atlas Force]

What people are missing here over all the usual complaints about Democratic virtual signalling is that this is actually a rather hilarious backfire on the part of the GOP. They intended the bill to put Democrats in an awkward position by making Omar singled out as a target for condemnation, but Democrats kept adding so many amendments to dilute the intent of the bill and make it possible for even Omar to vote in favor of it. This of course, caused 23 Republicans to vote against it.

The messaging takeaway from this has been that Republicans singled out Omar for condemnation over anti-semitic comments and then had 23 of their own members vote against an anti-semitism bill. Turning the bill into an empty virtue signal was the point, it caused a PR flop for House Republicans because McCarthy couldn't hold the caucus together after the revisions.

[Atlas Force]

Not yet, but she needs to learn how to talk about foreign policy without putting her foot in her mouth.

The disingenuous and selective “outrage” Republicans have about antisemitism is pretty patronizing to me, personally. Yes, there are antisemitics on the left. That doesn’t mean you get to claim moral superiority on the issue and ignore antisemitism that is less politically convenient to point out.