UT - Hinckley Institute/Salt Lake Tribune: Clinton +1 [Poll actually from June] (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 02, 2024, 01:20:07 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  UT - Hinckley Institute/Salt Lake Tribune: Clinton +1 [Poll actually from June] (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: UT - Hinckley Institute/Salt Lake Tribune: Clinton +1 [Poll actually from June]  (Read 5092 times)
jamestroll
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,547


« on: August 03, 2016, 09:46:53 AM »
« edited: August 03, 2016, 09:48:28 AM by james. »

Hmmm... hadn't thought about the Udalls, but they likely are much more respected in Utah than Reid over the past few generations. I remember Gordon Smith well, with several decades living in Oregon. Not sure where he is at not politically, or even if he would be interested in campaigning against Trump.

Still curious what a narrow Dem victory in Utah might look like, if anyone with better local knowledge is interested in creating a realistic map based upon competitive statewide elections of recent years. Smiley



1996 Attorney General was the last time a Democrat won statewide. Jan Graham. Ironically, she was the only female to ever be elected to statewide office in Utah.  Governor Olene Walker was simply appointed and lost her the nomination to John Huntsman in 2004.

I would suspect a statewide victory map for Democrats would look similar to the 1996 Attorney General map. The only thing is, some things have changed. I do not think Carbon County would vote 70% for a Democrat at this time, and I doubt a statewide Democrat would win Davis County. The only way to win statewide would be to win Salt Lake County by a substantial margin, while Keeping Utah and Davis Counties well under 70% for the Republican Party. Summit County would be an obvious victory for Democrats, but does not have that many votes. Wasatch County is quite loyal to the Republican Party, but from living in the Wasatch Back for some time, I must say the locals are not that conservative; on a relative scale.

As others have said, Weber County is the bellwether. Ogden does have a significant Latino population, and actually elected a legislative Democrat or two back in 2008.

Hillary Clinton will likely not win Utah. She can only do so, if Romney or a major Republican endorses her (likely will not happen), or if Mormons flock to Johnson in droves. Sanders, could have won Utah. His personality and demeanor matches the state very well. Plus he appeals to young people, and Utah has the lowest median age in the nation at 30.
Logged
jamestroll
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,547


« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2016, 10:36:59 AM »

Dear mormen and morwomen,

I, Lief, known for my outrageous but fully justified anti-morman views, am willing to bury the hatchet and accept your sick cult with open arms, if you do the right thing this November and deliver the great state of Utah to your BEAUTIFUL NOMINEE, Hillary Clinton. Thank you.

Sincerely,
Lief

Clinton is not going to win the LDS vote. The goal is to get some LDS Crossovers to the Democrats and have Johnson split the LDS GOP vote. That could provide a path for a Clinton victory. But it is unlikely.

In times of political chaos, I believe Sanders would  have won the state of Utah. His personality is very agreeable with Mormons, he is not Clinton, and there would have been a GOP Congress anyway.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.027 seconds with 13 queries.