I think the GOP has totally screwed the pooch on this one. Ward might well win the primary, which will make the race even tougher for them.
Of course, even with he Dems picking up both NV and AZ, the GOP could balance that out by winning on Dem turf, but I'd say that the Dems have a good chance of at least going neutral or +1 (I'm assuming MO-SEN is a likely GOP pickup) if they pick up those two seats, which is far better than they have any reason to hope for.
I completely agree with you here. Also MO-Sen has pretty much become a laughable self-fulfilling prophecy.
Arizona is becoming much easier compared to what early conventional wisdom suggested and Heller is looking less dead on arrival than expected but Democrats should win it but not take it for granted.