Why was this county the last rural county to flip R in Missouri? It was the only rural county in Missouri I believe Obama won in 2012.
Obama did not carry Ste Genevieve in 2012. It was the only rural county that Kerry carried in 2004 though.
I know the map of Missouri in 2004 looks almost like 2020 but the differences are stark. Much of the lead belt was essentially at the national median and still very down ballot Democratic. At the people people assumed that region would vote Democratic in 2008 in handily if a Democrat won the presidency. The 2008 results were split in the region from Jefferson County deep into the lead belt and Obama.
Few imagined that that the area would swing heavily Republican in a scenario in which a Democrat won re-election to the presidency.
I work in an industry in which unionization can be a hazard to operations and workers alike but the decline of labor unions has been devastating to the Democrats from a structural electoral perspective. There is little reason for people in that part of Missouri to vote for Democrats now. And in areas that like it makes almost no sense to propose 15 dollar minimum wages, lockdowns, etc.
