Australian Federal Election 18th of May 2019

[Progressive Pessimist]

MY HOT TAKE: Polling is never going to be trustworthy again. There are too many "culturally conservative " voters who are ashamed enough of being politically motivated by their desire to brutalize immigrants and the poor to lie about it to pollsters, but not ashamed enough to meaningfully self-reflect about it.

It sure seems that way in many elections around the world. "Undecideds" seem to favor the right wing party (or parties) and in an election where the polling is very close seems to suggest that the right will succeed in the election. People scoff at the "add x points to Trump's total to make it accurate" thinking, but it is probably a more realistic way of looking at polls. Though if we're talking about the general election in the United States next year, I could imagine that people won't be so skittish about declaring their support for the President this time around.

[Progressive Pessimist]

MY HOT TAKE: Polling is never going to be trustworthy again. There are too many "culturally conservative " voters who are ashamed enough of being politically motivated by their desire to brutalize immigrants and the poor to lie about it to pollsters, but not ashamed enough to meaningfully self-reflect about it.

It sure seems that way in many elections around the world. "Undecideds" seem to favor the right wing party (or parties) and in an election where the polling is very close seems to suggest that the right will succeed in the election. People scoff at the "add x points to Trump's total to make it accurate" thinking, but it is probably a more realistic way of looking at polls. Though if we're talking about the general election in the United States next year, I could imagine that people won't be so skittish about declaring their support for the President this time around.

Id be careful of cherrypicking instances like this to draw a broader conclusion. The polls in Spain and Finland didnt have a Left Party Bias. It just looks like the polls that had the race at 51-49 ALP turned out to be 51-49 Coalition, which is completely within the margin of error. Lets not rush to conclusions on how polling is now dead or something like that.

Well, I never said it was dead, just that close polls seem to have recently favored the right, in my view.