ABC/Ipsos: Biden +1 (RV), +4 (LV)

[Progressive Pessimist]

We still need to see Biden doing better in some battleground state polls, but the recent freakout by many really still seems premature, and I knew I would regret buying into it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

We still need to see Biden doing better in some battleground state polls, but the recent freakout by many really still seems premature, and I knew I would regret buying into it.

You are literally gonna flip flop between dooming and not dooming based on what everyone else thinks it's gonna be so entertaining

In my defense, I resisted dooming for a pretty impressive amount of time, if you ask me.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think this is going to be the closest-feeling election since 2004 and we just need to adjust to having a race that doesn't feel like one side is a strong favorite like people did in 2020 or (incorrectly) in 2016. Some Democrats are so unused to not leading all the time that they interpret a close race as getting killed six months out.

I think it's more an issue of the Electoral College's Republican bias in most cycles. Even a poll with Biden leading in the popular vote needs to be large enough for it to be an actual victory in our idiotic system.

I take some solace in the LV finding though. I remember that for Suozzi in the special election his leads were larger in LV screens than in others, yet that ended up closer to his actual winning margin. Not only that, but if likely voters are more certain to vote for Biden, his campaign can focus more on persuading other voters.