2019 New Jersey State Assembly Election

[Dead Parrot]

My preliminary ratings:

LD-1: Lean D
LD-2: Likely D
LD-3: Likely D
LD-8: Lean R
LD-21: Tilt R
LD-25: Likely R

All other districts: Safe [incumbent party]

[Dead Parrot]

My preliminary ratings:

LD-1: Lean D
LD-2: Likely D
LD-3: Likely D
LD-8: Lean R
LD-21: Tilt R
LD-25: Likely R

All other districts: Safe [incumbent party]

Anecdotally I would say LD-21 is a toss up currently; compared to the GOP there is serious energy on the Democratic side, and the most politically active residents are wealthy social liberals who deeply hate Trump and the current Republican Party.

Is LD 21 the Romney Menendez District?

Voting history of LD-21:

2012 Pres: Romney +5.8
2012 Sen: Kyrillos +4.8
2013 Sen (special): Lonegan +5.2
2013 Gov: Christie +38.2
2014 Sen: Bell +5.5
2016 Pres: Clinton +9.5
2017 Gov: Murphy +2.0
2018 Sen: Menendez +0.8

I rated this Tilt R primarily due to the assuredly abysmal turnout this off-off-year election will have. I can also foresee a scenario in which Bramnick holds on but Munoz loses if the vote is particularly close.

[Dead Parrot]

How did Menendez do in LD-25? It's my district and I know Clinton squeaked it, but my GOP assemblymen and senator were re-elected the year after, though by only 5 points, which is far closer than they're used to. Sherrill almost certainly carried the parts of the district in CD-11, but at the same time Sherrill was sweeping Morris County GOP county officials were re-elected handily. While the people here might like Mikie and national Dems, they still despise Trenton Dems, although the top-of-the-ballot Dem swings may start trickling down soon, so I'd call it Lean R, but closer to Likely R than tossup.

Voting history of LD-25:

2012 Pres: Romney +8.3
2012 Sen: Kyrillos +8.3
2013 Sen (special): Lonegan +10.5
2013 Gov: Christie +42.0
2014 Sen: Bell +10.3
2016 Pres: Clinton +0.2
2017 Gov: Guadagno +6.3
2018 Sen: Hugin +6.1

The Republicans are clearly favored in this race, but there is clear potential for a Democratic upset, particularly if the activist infrastructure that developed around the Malinowski/Sherrill campaigns get involved. Interestingly, LD-25 was one of the few districts where the non-incumbent Democratic state legislature candidates outran Phil Murphy in 2017, which kinda confuses me. Does Lisa Bhimani have some kind of special appeal?

[Dead Parrot]

My preliminary ratings:

LD-1: Lean D
LD-2: Likely D
LD-3: Likely D
LD-8: Lean R
LD-21: Tilt R
LD-25: Likely R

All other districts: Safe [incumbent party]

Anecdotally I would say LD-21 is a toss up currently; compared to the GOP there is serious energy on the Democratic side, and the most politically active residents are wealthy social liberals who deeply hate Trump and the current Republican Party.

Is LD 21 the Romney Menendez District?

Voting history of LD-21:

2012 Pres: Romney +5.8
2012 Sen: Kyrillos +4.8
2013 Sen (special): Lonegan +5.2
2013 Gov: Christie +38.2
2014 Sen: Bell +5.5
2016 Pres: Clinton +9.5
2017 Gov: Murphy +2.0
2018 Sen: Menendez +0.8

I rated this Tilt R primarily due to the assuredly abysmal turnout this off-off-year election will have. I can also foresee a scenario in which Bramnick holds on but Munoz loses if the vote is particularly close.

There was a Kyrillos-Menendez ‘18 seat? LMAO. No wonder Kean is trying to get out of there

On a somewhat related note, it's interesting how so much of the NJ GOP leadership originates from well-off suburbs that are rapidly trending away from them in the age of Trump, while a good portion of the state Dem leadership originates from WWC areas that are trending less quickly away from the Dems. The way things are going, there's a real possibility, however small, that there could be a "double-Portillo" in 2021 in which Sweeney and Kean both lose their seats.

[Dead Parrot]

Also, yes, local reporting is dead. NJ is an apathetic political state. Most people don't even know their legislators and complain when taxes are high.

NJ voters are the problem, they are hypocritical.

Expect 13% voter turnout.

I wonder how much of this has to do with NJ's unenviable position of being sandwiched between two much larger states/metro areas and the consequent lack of our own media market. The number of major outlets that would devote much coverage to the NJ Legislature is surely much lower than that of the NY and PA Legislatures. Having off-year elections probably also doesn't help*.

*Fun fact: off-year elections were written into the 1947 state constitution primarily to avoid having our gubernatorial race coincide with those of NY and PA, as it was assumed that the predominance of NYC and Philly media markets in NJ meant that we needed an election year all to ourselves or else we would get no coverage at all. Ironically, in the present day this move has probably been counterproductive with regard to generating voter interest due to the lack of "midterm" tension.

[Dead Parrot]

State Senator Anthony Bucco has passed away: newjerseyglobe.com/in-memoriam/senator-anthony-bucco-dies-at-81/