2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Politician]

Morning Consult

Dems: 43% (-1)
GOP: 34% (-1)

They polled Gen Z (18-21 year olds)

Dems: 58%
GOP: 20%

Millennials (22-37 years old)

Dems: 45%
GOP: 28%

But muh conservative Gen Z!

[Politician]

Yougov

Democrats - 42 (-1)
Republicans - 39 (+1)

You said you'd be gone for a week.

[Politician]

NY-22: Zogby finds Brindisi leading incumbent Tenney

http://www.uticaod.com/news/20180502/poll-brindisi-ahead-of-tenney-in-race-for-congress

Brindisi (D) - 47
Tenney (R) - 40

When undecideds are pushed it's 55-45.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Tenney won by 5 points (46-41) here in 2016 as the district went for Trump 55-39.

No surprise, Tenney is on track to lose in November being a terrible incumbent.

[Politician]

Wow.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/994977649570304000

Define 'battleground' races. Many of these are R-leaning districts, so it's not like Dems are losing.

[Politician]

Not to mention, people are claiming the Democrats are losing their generic ballot lead when in fact it's stable and is around the same it's usually been (December was an execption).

[Politician]

"Sean T at RCP" is getting in on the sh**tfest as well...

Although do bear in mind RCP does have a slight R bias.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/996099288018059264

What a horse**** take.

It is mindboggling how pundits throw out conventional wisdom when it concerns Republicans. If Democrats were in the same position as Republicans, these same clowns would be telling us they are doom (and they would be correct.)

44% approval lol, how the **** is that good?

Obama had 46% approval in 2010, and we know what happened.

[Politician]

The political environment is changing, part 2.

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/996437200014278662

CLF polling in the 48 most competitive congressional districts has D+3. It was D+11 in December.

Stop stalking random people on Twitter.

[Politician]

YouGov, May 13-15, 1231 RV

D 42 (-2), R 37 (+2). 

Dems also dropped two points in margin in Morning Consult.

Why use good polls? Why not just use Morning Consult, Rasmussen, Gravis, Zogby, colleges, internals, etc. to "prove" the blue wave is dead?

[Politician]

YouGov, May 13-15, 1231 RV

D 42 (-2), R 37 (+2). 

Dems also dropped two points in margin in Morning Consult.

Why use good polls? Why not just use Morning Consult, Rasmussen, Gravis, Zogby, colleges, internals, etc. to "prove" the blue wave is dead?

Ok. High quality CNN Poll shows D+3. High quality Pew Poll shows D+5.

Just a low point. Give it a few weeks and it'll be back up again.

[Politician]

Given the track record of GOP internals, Eastman is probably in a close race with Bacon.

[Politician]

Yes, obviously the Republicans are going to win the congressional ballot by 6 points in the 2018 midterms. We can all go home I guess!

[Politician]

If it's R+6, Republicans don't lose anything but PA-05 and FL-27 and gain MN-1, MN-8, PA-7, both NH seats, NJ-5, FL-7, and PA-8.

>Implying it could be
LMAO

[Politician]

Annie Kuster wouldn’t lose even in a R+6 environment (which will obviously never happen).

Actually, 2014 was an R+6 environment (but Annie Kuster survived it).

Yeah, I meant this year. But yeah, “rising star” Marilinda Garcia was supposed to give Kuster a run for her money in 2014 and ended up losing by 10 points in a R+6 year, lol. Kuster is beyond safe, even in a GOP wave year.

She only won by 3 in 2016 (D+2 national environment) against some random dude

In a D+6 environment, she'd easily be re-elected.

[Politician]

Politico/Morning Consult-

Democrat: 42% (-1)
Republican: 36% (-2)

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000163-8a20-d9c0-a1f3-feb194ce0001

Crosstabs-

Dems leading amongst Baby Boomers 43-39%
Dems leading amongst Independents 30-25%
Dems leading amongst moderates 45-24%
Dems leading amongst blacks 73-8%
Dems leading amongst Catholics 45-36%
Dems leading amongst Suburban voters 42-38%
Dems leading amongst Generation Z 47-25%

GOP leading amongst whites 41-37%

GOP has a -22 favorable rating, 33%-55%
Dems have a -11 favorable rating, 38%-49%

Not bad, D+6 from a Republican pollster.

[Politician]

Cisneros vs. Huff makes CA-39 a Lean Dem race. Would be hilarious if Young Kim doesn't make it to the runoff.

Yep, definitely. When even Limo says the Democrats would be favored, they probably would be.

[Politician]

Likely D -> Titanium R

[Politician]

LimoLiberal I've put links to generic poll listings at the top, so you can stop posting tweets with useless "periodic updates" from now on.

Your are a godsend.

[Politician]

This forum would be singing a much different tune on the trend if the dems were initially losing by double digits in rcp average and it trended down to 3.4

Yep. The improvement and turnaround for Republicans has been incredible in all the aggregates.

Limo in 2010: "Yep. The improvement and turnaround for Democrats has been incredible in all the aggregates."

[Politician]

Harvard Harris: D 44 - R 37

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Final_HHP_May2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo-Rev1.pdf

Fake news. If you run this through LL's mind model, it comes out to R+1. Politics 101 thx

Fits well within the trend of a declining Democratic edge on the generic ballot.

March: D+11
April: D+9
May: D+7

Read my signature, generic ballot is least accurate in spring and becomes more precise in the fall.

[Politician]

Harvard Harris: D 44 - R 37

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Final_HHP_May2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo-Rev1.pdf

Fake news. If you run this through LL's mind model, it comes out to R+1. Politics 101 thx

Fits well within the trend of a declining Democratic edge on the generic ballot.

March: D+11
April: D+9
May: D+7

Read my signature, generic ballot is least accurate in spring and becomes more precise in the fall.

Do you have evidence for that besides one poll from one election cycle?

In 1994, 2010, and 2014 Democrats held early generic ballot leads only to get wiped out all 3 times.

[Politician]

LL, we're going to have a field day with you the day after the election.

It's not going to be as satisfying as you think. Andrew will lay low for a for few weeks, then start up again in 2019.

"Trump will win a 49-state landslide in 2020!"

[Politician]

LL, we're going to have a field day with you the day after the election.

To be clear, if the Democrats are leading the generic ballot by 7-10 points in the fall than I will be pretty comfortable in predicting a house takeover. But I don't think they will be.

No, you'll still say Dems are DOA.

[Politician]

How many articles and narratives were made over a likely computer error?

Not sure. But Hannity, Breitbart, and the Daily Wire made sure they were plastered on the front page of google.


Btw, I wonder if Sean T at RCP will shift any ratings.

[Politician]

The wearing of jorts past the age of 20 should frankly be a capital offense so Barbara is doing God’s work here

[Politician]

Ok why did my King Lear parody post get deleted? Fr.

You mean you do serious posts too?