2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Politician]

https://dccc.org/640854-2/

IA-3 DCCC internal: Axne (D) 46, Young (R-inc) 43

Yep, Young's going down. Lol at that poll showing him outrunning Steve King.

[Politician]

OMG OMG OMG!
New Emerson WV poll--- Ojeda and Manchin leads!
https://www.emerson.edu/office-of-communications/media-relations/press-releases/emerson-e-poll-manchin-leads-12-points-west-virginia-senate-race-democrats-look-take-1-possibly-2-house-seats#.W5-yMf5KhUN
But with a lot of undecideds.

Way too many undecideds to be meaningful, but good news for the Ojeda camp. Maybe we shouldn't have written him off?

[Politician]

It looks like Taylor is the newest member of the Comstock/Rothfus/Blum/Lewis/Paulsen/Coffman/Young/Rohrabacher/Knight club.

[Politician]

Not sure if I missed these, but two Iowa Dem internals:

IA-03 DCCC in-house: Axne 46, Young 43

IA-04 Expedition Strategies: King 43, Scholten 37

Frankly, I believe King will "only" win by high single digits, similar to his 2012 total.

[Politician]

I think it’s fair to say Young Kim was House GOP’s Best recruit this cycle, no?

Salazar in FL-27 is as well. Combined with Shalala's awfulness and the Republicans could actually win that seat.

[Politician]

NJ-02
Stockton University
535 Likely Voters

Jeff Van Drew (D) 55
Seth Grossman (R) 32

MOE +/- 4.2%

Van Drew has a 49-11 favorability rating, winning 17 percent of Republicans and leading with independents by 24 points, while Grossman, an overt racist, has an even 20-20 favorability split, likely due to Van Drew's decision to cost in the race rather than seriously attack his opponent.

Of more interest, Menendez trails Hugin by 10 points, 46-36.

This race is Leaning R. Grossman will energize his working class base and combine that with strong performance in suburban Republican citadels to win. He can also tie Van Drew to Pelosi and MS-13.

/s

Safe D, obviously.

[Politician]

Is there historical evidence to back up the idea that Siena is biased toward incumbents in September? It's certainly not the case that all of their polls are rosy for incumbents.

It's just a lie #BlueWavers tell themselves to feel better about those brutal numbers they've been seeing lately.

Erik Paulsen, Mike Coffman and Rod Blum say hi.

Also, incumbents at 45% is bad news for them, especially when undecideds lean Democratic.

[Politician]

MN-3 PPP: Phillips 52, Paulsen 39

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2018/09/two-major-political-handicappers-find-minnesotas-third-district-slipping-out-of-erik-paulsens-grasp/

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1043206573303234560

Wasserman moved this to "Likely" D, lol.

[Politician]

Uh, why is GA-6 a battleground? Handel is as likely to win as Rouzer or Marchant.

[Politician]

KY-6 Pulse Opinion Research: Barr (R-inc) 47, McGrath (D) 47

https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/KentuckyTermLimitsPollResults2018.pdf

Tossup, but gun to my head McGrath wins.

[Politician]

CA-21 SUSA: Valadao (R-inc) 50, Cox (D) 39

https://abc30.com/politics/political-insider--valadao-leads-cox-in-new-poll/4339229/

But but but candidate quality doesn't matter in wave years! Fundamentals + the national environment make this Lean D!

[Politician]

POLL DUMP OUTTA KANSAS

https://twitter.com/pmiller1693/status/1046759328340955136

Those KS-02 numbers are peak Emerson.

KS-1 is even worse. 41% undecided.

[Politician]

Nunes is winning by less then Cramer? Color me skeptical. Anyone, just confirms what we already know: CA Reps are in big trouble.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-me-pol-berkeley-la-times-poll-20181004-story.html

CA-22: Nunes 53, Janz 45

CA-50: Hunter 49, Campa-Najjar 47

CA-49: Levin 55, Harkey 41

CA-48: Rouda 48, Rohrabacher 48

CA-45: Porter 52, Walters 45

CA-39: Cisneros 49, Kim 48

CA-25: Hill 50, Knight 46

CA-10: Harder 50, Denham 45

Muh Kavanaugh R bump

Haha, I'm not sure many people expected a Kavanaugh bump for the Republicans in suburban California.

Also the Senate is the chamber that actually deals with Supreme-Court related issues.

[Politician]

A temporary blip is not a permanent development. There is still a month left. Plenty of developments left to affect this midterm course.

Don't forget that in October 2016, most of Atlas was convinced Hillary would be winning Arizona and Ohio.

[Politician]

Sooo, Congressional Leadership Fund comes out today with a poll that has Hurd up wait for it... 25 points. I mean even for them it's too much I think.

[Politician]

The Democrats could easily have a very good night in the Senate. They could flip Ohio, Kentucky, Missouri, Louisiana, North Carolina and Alaska while losing only North Dakota. That gives them 64 seats in the Senate. It's very plausible.

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1048575528469495808

:thinking_emoji:

How about they change their rating for that race then, rather than bloviate about it on Twitter?

It would spoil the suspense.

[Politician]

I like how the D hacks have seamlessly transitioned from "Kavanaugh will help the Democrats" to "Kavanaugh will have no effect" to "Kavanaugh will hurt the Democrats but only temporarily."

You're not exactly batting a thousand, either

Hey, nobody's perfect. But I've been doing pretty well in 2018 so far.

- Was one of the very few people to predict Johnson would beat Pawlenty
- Predicted Balderson by 1 point Fair enough, I guess.
- Predicted Bredesen would eventually collapse/Blackburn would surge It took you a dozen tries to be right. Even then, Bredesen may still be able to come back.
- Predicted Stitt would surge This has not happened.
- Predicted NH would get closer after the primary
- Predicted AZ would get closer after the primary Sinema had a narrow lead before and she does now.
- Predicted Nelson would eventually recover in FL while many people were freaking out over July polls
- Predicted Corey Stewart winning the primary and that he wouldn't be losing by 25-30+ points in the general All polls have showed him behind by over 15, and he only barely won the primary.
- Predicted TN-Gov was safe R despite muh July Emerson polls which snookered many others Even after that Emerson poll was released, nobody really thought this would flip.
- Predicted Whitmer eventually surging even when the polls were still "close" and many thought it was a toss up Everybody believed this was D favored from the start except UncleSam.
- Predicted Dems would easily win CT despite Muhloy Again, a normal prediction. Only Free Bird really thought this would flip.
- Predicted Scott Taylor's scandal wouldn't matter It actually is impacting him.
- Predicted Duncan Hunter's scandal wouldn't matter It actually is impacting him.
- Predicted Jaime Herrera Beutler being vulnerable when every pundit had it safe R
- Predicted Ojeda's chances were overrated One poll does not equal a permanent trend against.
- Called Scott Wallace being a weak candidate on primary day
- Called Lamb being strongly favored after he won the special election while all the pundits had it as "pure toss up" He won by less then 1 point.
- Was highly skeptical of the "muh Dem lockout" media narrative in California They almost got locked out of CA-10 and CA-48.

Of course, there were some misses too, but you can't win em all. Senator Roy Moore agrees.

Your predictive history isn't actually as great as you may think.

[Politician]

VA-10 WP/Schar School: Wexton 55, Comstock 43

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democrat-wexton-leads-rep-comstock-by-12-points-in-northern-va-district-survey-finds/2018/10/08/9b4a42e2-c829-11e8-b2b5-79270f9cce17_story.html

But UncleSam told me Comstock has a good chance

[Politician]

MN-07 (ALG, Peterson internal)

“An Anzalone Liszt Grove survey of 500 likely voters from Sept. 5-10 found him leading Hughes 53 percent to 35 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.”

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/last-democrat-can-hold-trump-seat-isnt-giving-yet

Safe D. LOL at people who said Peterson would lose because muh 2016 trends.

[Politician]

Everyone want a good laugh?

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1050097135624978432?s=21

McLaughlin, indeed.

Wasn't this the same poll that had Hawley up by 8?

Interesting how Atlas believes a junk pollster when it gives them a "believable" result.

Of course, this is obviously Likely D, and Comstock's way of saying "Don't triage me".

[Politician]

Nate McMurray internal has him TIED with Chris Collins:

https://twitter.com/Nate_McMurray/status/1050058351441313792?s=20

Looks good, but I want Monmouth to jump in.

Thanks GOP criminals!

[Politician]

WA-08 Rossi +10
https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1050118530597834752

Nate McMurray internal has him TIED with Chris Collins:

https://twitter.com/Nate_McMurray/status/1050058351441313792?s=20

Looks good, but I want Monmouth to jump in.

Gotta love me some partisan polls.

Suffice to say I’m extremely skeptical of both of these results

Yeah, both of these are about as believable as Tester being up 24 in MT or Newsom only being up 4 in California.

NY-27 is believable, though, if you add 5 to Collins.

[Politician]

D+13 generic ballot doesn't exist?