LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Politician]

Edwards will most likely win outright and avoid a runoff.

[Politician]

It’ll most likely go to a runoff election, wherein Abraham will win by high single digits.

Abraham won't even make it into a runoff.

[Politician]

GOP infighting in Louisiana.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/01/edwards-louisiana-governor-republicans-014084

[Politician]

Edwards 49
Rispone 25
Abraham 22

Edwards defeats Rispone in runoff, 53-47

[Politician]

Edwards 44
Rispone 32
Abraham 20

Rispone wins runoff 54-46

LMAO

[Politician]

Edwards 44
Rispone 32
Abraham 20

Rispone wins runoff 54-46

LMAO

This is completely in the realm of possibility. Have you noticed how much JBE is struggling even despite the fact he’s popular?

Edwards is above 44% in every poll with undecideds

It's "in the realm of plausibility" the same way your beloved Collin County voting D is "within the realm of plausibility"

And no, JBE won't win St. Tammany Parish despite trendz.

[Politician]

Here come the #hottakes
Here come the #hottakes
And I say
It's not alright

[Politician]

Edwards is in third place in LaSalle Parish (the most racist place in America), lmao.

[Politician]

WOW JBE at 55% in Jefferson Parish

[Politician]

Is there a counting bias towards the GOP or towards Dems?

The former. Nothing is in from Caddo, Orleans, or Baton Rouge.

And this is all early vote which may(?) be more favorable for the GOP if we follow history.

Likely will. In 2015 it was.

[Politician]

Edwards is gaining with the ED vote.

[Politician]

JBE IS WINNING LAFAYETTE PARISH

[Politician]

#populist Cameron Parish gave Clinton only 9% but is giving #populist JBE 30%.

[Politician]

Let the record show I will happily admit I was wrong if JBE wins tonight. I wonder if the same can be said when Bevin crushes it in three weeks

Although JBE could still win, even tonight, his utter collapse in Acadiana makes me resigned to Bevin winning, since Appalachia has had similar voting patterns. Not a direct correlation, but worrying nonetheless.

True, but Kentucky has areas such as Oldham, Cincy burbs, Warren, Daviess, etc. Where Beshear could improve substantially on Conway.

[Politician]

Let the record show I will happily admit I was wrong if JBE wins tonight. I wonder if the same can be said when Bevin crushes it in three weeks

Although JBE could still win, even tonight, his utter collapse in Acadiana makes me resigned to Bevin winning, since Appalachia has had similar voting patterns. Not a direct correlation, but worrying nonetheless.

True, but Kentucky has areas such as Oldham, Cincy burbs, Warren, Daviess, etc. Where Beshear could improve substantially on Conway.

Wait, you're finally admitting Trends Are Real?

Yep. I still think Beshear will win counties such as Elliott, but if he wins he probably needs all the counties above while still losing places like Knott.

[Politician]

Surprised that Landreau is getting less than 1% of the vote.

Not surprised. Third parties always underperform their polling numbers, look at Greg Orman (twice).

[Politician]

Bel drops below 46% and is at 45.7%. Orleans, Jefferson and East Baton Rouge parishes still have less then half of their precincts reporting though.

Uh oh, JBE in disarray! Safe R

[Politician]

wow, he UNDERPERFORMED Hillary in Richland, which is fully in

That seems to be the other case in other northern parishes as well like Morehouse.

Abraham had appeal in his own district maybe?

[Politician]

Pretty certain that this will go to a Runoff. There ain't enough Votes left to push JBE over 50%. Mission Accomplished by Republicans.

And there's a sub zero percent chance of JBE winning a runoff after a month of Trump promoting the Republican.

lol

[Politician]

Time to stick a fork in this one. Governor Rispone is a go

Bummer.

Is this a joke?

[Politician]

Beshear definitely wins Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin and probably wins Elliott, Nicholas, Marion, Woodford, Rowan, Nelson, Bourbon.

[Politician]

Beshear definitely wins Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin and probably wins Elliott, Nicholas, Marion, Woodford, Rowan, Nelson, Bourbon.

I’m sure this will age well as those “Likely D LA Gov” posts

Uh, saying LA-GOV was Likely D was reasonable based on the information at the time and my final pre-runoff rating was Lean D, but thanks for playing

Since I know you're going to dig up one dumb thing I said, here was my final primary prediction which was no further off than yours:

Edwards 49
Rispone 25
Abraham 22

[Politician]

Something to keep in mind about Saturday:

The LSU-Bama game

Half the state will be glued to TVs or at watch parties

Well then, it's probably even better for Edwards.

[Politician]

Remember when posters were saying a few months back that a Dem triple sweep this year was more likely than an R sweep? LOL

This aged well.

[Politician]

Remember when posters were saying a few months back that a Dem triple sweep this year was more likely than an R sweep? LOL

This aged well.

Reeves won by a hell of a lot more than Beshear and probably more than JBE (assuming he wins), so yeah, a GOP sweep was definitely more likely.

Doesn't change the fact that you thought there was a 90%+ chance of a Republican sweep, and you were wrong.