GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.)

[ON Progressive]

She would be our best candidate, and would certainly clear the Dem field.

I still would say Perdue is favoured, but I wouldn’t exactly like to be an incumbent with a mere +1 net approval.

[ON Progressive]

After the Republican won the Secretary of State runoff, I think that Abrams stands no chance.

Abrams won't lose Cobb County and will do better than a 1 point victory in Gwinnett County, so I don't think you should be using that to say "Abrams stands no chance"

[ON Progressive]

I don’t know what’s worse: this garbage or Nancy had a little Lamb.

This is awful, but Nancy had a little Lamb was objectively worse.

I have to agree with this. At least this ad isn't downright painful to listen to, unlike Nancy had a little Lamb.

[ON Progressive]

It looks like Abrams is out:

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1123065730071703552

Ugh. There goes a pick up opportunity.

Teresa Tomlinson is a perfectly fine candidate.

[ON Progressive]

Who cares? No ratings change. Always has been Likely R, still is, and will remain dem fool's gold.

Classic Atlas #analysis with nothing to substantiate such ridiculous claims.

She is a B- tier candidate that barely did better than Clinton (and somehow even worse than her in rural areas hahahaha) against an awful GOP opponent in a dem wave year in a state shifting towards dems in a non-incumbent setting. She's nothing special, and people were fools for giving her much attention in the first place. We are losing out on nothing by her not running. Her or Amico, or Tomlinson, or Holcomb, or any other chump would lose by 3-8 points
[/quote]

She did significantly better than Clinton, especially in the suburbs. Please don’t talk about things you know nothing about.

[ON Progressive]

Someone good like Stacey Evans would have beaten Kemp. Still held the same numbers everywhere, but do better in the rural areas to barely make it over the top. Abrams is a toxic fit for rural GA, did worse than Hillary there, sad!

Anybody who watched her hilariously bad campaign in the primary knows this is patently false.

[ON Progressive]

Sarah Amico pretty much confirmed on her Instagram that she's running.

Not happy about it tbh. Tomlinson needs to hoard as much money as she possibly can

I want everyone else to leave and Jason Carter to enter. He would be a very strong candidate.

I don't buy that Jason Carter is particularly stronger than either Tomlinson or even Amico.

[ON Progressive]

Why has the recruiting for these two seats suck so much?

I have a theory.

There's a certain level of difficulty/handicaps to factor in that is possibly causing this.

While having a ton of candidates in one race means that your chances of winning the nomination are much lower in that race (assuming they're credible ones), there is no nomination to be had in the other race. Isakson's race will be akin to the LA jungle primary: any and all candidates will appear on the same ballot, with the runoff occurring in January.

The odds of at least 1 or 2 rando Dems jumping in and siphoning off like 0.5-1% each is high (and at least with the former, practically guaranteed; the Ossoff race is probably the best recent example in GA, as is the 2019 LA jungle primary in general). It's very unlikely that there will end up being just 1 Democrat on the ballot for the Isakson jungle primary, even if Lieberman dropped out and one of the credible challengers from the Perdue race jumped ship to this one. It gets exponentially more difficult to win a race in GA as a Democrat with each percentage point you siphon off to either a fellow Democrat or independent in these jungle primary/runoff situations, for obvious reasons (50% +1).

So while in theory it might be nominally harder to knock off Perdue as an incumbent when compared to running in an open race, there's also the fact that you have no way to nail down your party's total endorsement or nomination in said open race - and you'll likely be running against a few random Democrats (and/or independents) who siphon off a few points. That virtually guarantees no outcome other than a runoff, which we would almost certainly lose.

If you want a Senate seat in GA as a Democrat, then you need to win on Election Night in November. I believe there's a better chance of that happening in the Perdue race, and that this is why everybody is clustering to challenge Perdue.

That explains the special election, but doesn't explain the terrible recruiting in the Perdue race when the question was about both the special and the Perdue race.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1287900497010135045

Yikes...