2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original (user search)
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original  (Read 208747 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« on: February 10, 2018, 05:44:38 PM »
Dems can win anywhere between 11 and 42 seats in the House.  This is a violatile electorate, the last 3 Presidents they have lost 1 or both houses of Congress.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2018, 01:06:54 PM »
Roll Call says average number of House seats in a midterm is 33 for the opposition party.  The polls will tighten.

However, there is an ethics cloud hanging over the Trump administration that voters will go to the polls with and that's a winning hand for Dems. Which translated to victories in PA-18 and AL-Senate
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2018, 01:10:32 PM »
That's the average.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2018, 10:40:36 PM »
We might have a status quo election,  divided GOP majority in both chambers
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2018, 01:17:41 PM »
Quote from: Jeppe on June 02, 2018, 02:58:04 AM
If we had a candidate in TX-22 on the same caliber as Lizzie Fletcher, we might’ve had a shot at winning the seat. Oh well, maybe in 2020.

Democrats might only get to 205 seats, which is their average,  below 200 was below their average
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2018, 04:59:08 PM »
Yes,  PA, MI and WI would give them 10 to 15 seats,  the governorship that they will pick up.  In any event,  Please should resign.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2018, 06:43:05 PM »
I was looking at YouTube videos and how they say, there is a path to GOP retaining Congress. Given,  the recent polling of late,  it isn't out the realm of possibilities now.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2018, 09:21:44 AM »
60 percent and OH 12 is Lean R
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2018, 05:37:38 AM »
People want their problems solved,  don't want to hear about shutdowns, either.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #9 on: June 06, 2018, 06:57:44 PM »
I say the Democrats will have a 2-3 point spread over the GOP until election day, but no matter what it will be a divided Congress, even if the GOP maintain control
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2018, 09:24:25 PM »
It's probably closer to 3.5 or 4
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #11 on: June 06, 2018, 09:29:49 PM »
« Edited: June 06, 2018, 09:34:29 PM by Cory Booker »
Just cautious optimism, I never said GOP was leading. I want to see House polls, with individual match-ups,  too.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #12 on: June 06, 2018, 09:54:06 PM »

I don't really understand why people still use RCP and not the 538 tracker. RCP is not transparent in what polls they include and is easily overtaken by online polls that publish often.

It's called a dead cat bounce,  Democrats get it after winning a primary and the Democrats were enthusiastic during the California primaries,  which caused a bump.  We saw the samething after Cordray won the governors race primary.

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2018, 06:01:02 PM »
GA and TN arent battleground states
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2018, 06:48:08 PM »
GA and NM governorship Lean R and Lean D
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #15 on: June 18, 2018, 02:05:06 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on June 18, 2018, 02:01:41 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 18, 2018, 01:58:44 PM


I have a strong feeling the Dems are going to far exceed expectations on election day, just like the GOP did in 2010, and that's what the polls are showing.

If they win OH 12, which is a bellweather, will tell if the Dems have exceeded the 273 blue wall, by winning in OH, a Lean GOP state. If they don't, then all bets are off again, and the House will be very close
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #16 on: June 18, 2018, 06:20:24 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on June 18, 2018, 02:21:37 PM
Quote from: Cory Booker on June 18, 2018, 02:05:06 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on June 18, 2018, 02:01:41 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 18, 2018, 01:58:44 PM


I have a strong feeling the Dems are going to far exceed expectations on election day, just like the GOP did in 2010, and that's what the polls are showing.

If they win OH 12, which is a bellweather, will tell if the Dems have exceeded the 273 blue wall, by winning in OH, a Lean GOP state. If they don't, then all bets are off again, and the House will be very close

So they would have exceeded the freiwal?

Yes, but NRA and gun rights, have solidified the polarization that played out in 2016
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #17 on: June 19, 2018, 08:24:27 AM »
Great news
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