Rate Maine

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R

Collins will likely win by 5 or 6 in the end. Yeah, she has lost a lot of her previously very strong crossover appeal but at the same time she is still leading Gideon by +15. The race will tougher than last times but she remains well positioned for another win.

Cook has ME as tossup, we have only seen two polls, NH, ME polls close rapidly, Gideon can win. Its not over.. Trump overperformed in 2016, he is beatable and weak in 2020, facing impeachment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its a tossup race, its not likely R, Cook has it right.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely D.  The Senate vote will very closely track with the Presidential vote, and Gideon is going to win this by about 8%.  Trump will be the anchor that finally pulls Collins down.

Stupid

Nope.  Most people are seriously underestimating how much things have changed.

Most GOPers dont see Trump as a weak Prez, 70 polls have come out showing Trump losing by 2008 margins of 5-7 points.  With those margins., the Senate is winnable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I voted Likely R, but it's really more like Safe R. Collins is going to win another landslide, I just know it.

The election is next year, not this yr, if impeachment goes to Senate, Collins will have to pledge her support for Trump, whom is unpopular in ME

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R. Despite Collins growing in unpopularity, All polls still show her comfortably ahead at this point. It will definitely be a lot closer than 2014, But I'd still expect Collins to win by 8-9%.

Its ME and Collins ran on Obamacare in 2008 and 2014, you also thin AZ is Lean R and polls show a Slight Kelly advantage.  ME is fully winnable, next year, and only 2 polls have been taken

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls now are meaningless, the Prez polls are showing  a Tsunami and the Senate races are showing status quo. Something will give. If its a true tsunami, the Senate will flip snd Dems will get 240 House seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think she loses if Trump loses.

Yes, Collins is losing now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D (voted Likely D in the poll because there is no Safe D option). Susan Collins is DOA.

Considering Trump only lost the state of Maine by 3%, It's almost impossible for a Republican to lose by a solid margin. Collins will lose a lot of support, but she is still going to win.

Last poll had Collins losing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ, CO, ME and NC tilt D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The number of crossover votes for Collins is going to collapse in 2020 compared to the last time she ran in a presidential year. In 2008 probably about 20% of all Maine voters cast ballots for Collins and Obama. I would be really surprised if that number is more than 8-9% in 2020.

For the moment Collins in favored but it will be close. I think Maine is one of the few states that could swing slightly to Trump even if he loses, just given the demographic shifts we saw in 2016/18. Plus the Democrats will throw a decent amount of money on this race, which may go far since it's a small state.

If I had to guess now, I'd guess that Collins wins by 2-3% while the Democratic nominee wins by 3-4%

Collins is doomed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The number of crossover votes for Collins is going to collapse in 2020 compared to the last time she ran in a presidential year. In 2008 probably about 20% of all Maine voters cast ballots for Collins and Obama. I would be really surprised if that number is more than 8-9% in 2020.

For the moment Collins in favored but it will be close. I think Maine is one of the few states that could swing slightly to Trump even if he loses, just given the demographic shifts we saw in 2016/18. Plus the Democrats will throw a decent amount of money on this race, which may go far since it's a small state.

If I had to guess now, I'd guess that Collins wins by 2-3% while the Democratic nominee wins by 3-4%

Collins is doomed

No she is not. Her race is Lean Republican, and if Trump manages to come within single digits again, like in 2016 (and I believe he will), she will probably win, or at least come close. My current prediction is that she hangs on by about 3-4 percentage points, like Manchin and Tester did last year.

Cook has the ratings tossup, at this point

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins is done