Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean/Likely R.

The only Texas Democrat that can win is Henry Cuellar. He fits the state's ideology. He is a moderate Democrat.

Texas is not leftwing. Even Texas Democrats are tough on immigration.

Six pts isn't R state Beto like Demings and Ryan and Crist and Beasley are wave insurance seats of course it's Lean R now but what happens when BBB/BINF PERFORMS , DS CANT AFFORD TO LOSE, THEY LOST 1000 STATE LEGISLATURE STS DURING OBAMA ADMINISTRATION

DONT UNDERESTIMATE BIDEN, RS HAVE DONE THIS IN THE PAST Palin walked into the VEEP DEBATE IN 2008 THINKING SHE WOULD WALK OVER BIDEN SHE LOST

THIS IS THE Same BIDEN THAT HELPED OBAMA WIN 376 EC VOTES 2008/12

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto is only down six pts and so are Crist and Demings it's not an R plus 10 state HEGAR only lost by six pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto has the nomination obviously, but he has an uphill climb, I like Beto abd if Biden polls improve he can get some momentum or Crist in FL

I seriously doubt Abbott is up by 15 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott isn't winning bye 15 and DeSantis isn't winning bye 10 in a 304 map scenario and IPSOS has it 48% Biden lost TX bye 6 and FL bye 3 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden failures to visit the Border is hurting him in TX and FL he is in the pocket of immigration activists

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Border Crisis and Greg Abbott building his own wall it's safe R, Biden won't restart the wall, this isn't a oil issue it's an immigration issue

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto won't win because Biden stopped building the Wall and Greg Abbott said Beto is to the left of Biden on the Border, Greg Abbott is doing a great job Beto will cut it to 55/45 and lose not bye 15 but 10

Latinos and liberal whites are for amnesty there are conservative blacks moreso in Deep South that are middle class that are willing to vote for Abbott Blks are against amnesty especially in a Pandemic

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good if Allen West is the Nominee Beto wins

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol this is gonna be a major race as well as FL  Biden Approvals have jumped from 43 to 47 remember Trump only won TX by 6 and FL by 3 and this isn't even August yet

47)52 are head to head numbers and in IPSOS POLLS HE HAS CONSISTENCY BEEN AT 50)48, wave of 2018 happened in October not Jan as I keep telling Rs as they keep comparing 2018 to 22

It's interesting that Lone Star is quoting Bronz and he flip flopped on OH Senate and said with Josh Mandel it's gonna be very close and then he says it's safe R

I hope West wins primary it's over for Rs if he does

As far as open borders it's gonna go down as an issue voters were upset that Biden lead open borders with unvaccinated Immigrants, but as Covid waines so will anger over open borders that's why Biden Approvals have jumped

Omnicrom is ending as I predicted

But, what's the use you have a closed border and Rs don't want to discharge Student Loan and they voted for Bankruptcy reform bill that took out Student loan discharge by Bush W in 2005 and give tax cuts to richest Americans, Beto and Crist helps urban poverty

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't write off Beto just yet, I had it safe R but Allen West can win the primary and lose to Beto

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Allen West can win the primary and Beto can win the border is receding as an issue because COVID cases are.going down and unvaccinated Immigrants are no longer and criminals are getting arrested

The Rs when they were in charge of the Trifecta didn't even finish the wall but TX isn't the state to watch FL with Crist being 4 pts down is the real race

Biden Approvals have jumped from 39 to 48 percent and higher than Trumps

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are favored in TX but just like FL it's Jan 22 not October 22'both of them are well below 50 , Abbott 48/43 and DeSantis 45/41 the same for Whitmer

Abbott is gonna have a tougher race than labeling Valdez as a socialist

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is overrated

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really like Beto O hope he wins, he isn't Valdez like ABBOTT eqn against in 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

From republican activist Scott Presler
https://twitter.com/scottpresler/status/1495222004584263681?s=21

You guys are beating us because the D don't have a primar, Beto is expected to win overwhelming the primary and there is some risk of Abbott losing in the primary that's doesn't mean a whole lot this is wave insurance, we don't have a Senate race the real race is FL when Crist goes up against DeSantis we have a Senate race in FL and DeSantis isn't winning by ten points , Trump overperformed in Miami Dade Crist is gonna win Miami Dade by 25 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto is only 7 pts down with 9 mnths left HEGAR wasn't within single digits this early we can win this race, Biden Approvals will gonup

Beto and Crist arent joke candidate like Gillium and Valdez and HEGAR and only lost to Cruz by 2 and he wasn't a Natl figure yet

Let's stop pretending that there isn't Voting Suppression.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott has really done pretty much everything he could in the last few years to make himself vulnerable. It's a red year so he won't be, but he's lucky b/c he thinks this is still an R+20 state or something and it's not.

Users need to stop saying red yr and say a 303 map yr just like we had in 2020 Evers, Shapiro and Whitmer aren't losing
Lol it's not a red year D's in 303 states are outpolling Biden but in a 303 map TX and FL are red and AZ, NM, NV and CO are blue it's VBM and D voters can over one Biden 44 Approvals in VBM election not same day

It was only red yr in 2010 it was 11 percent unemployment and in 2014 we weren't in a Pandemic Obamacare was deeply unpopular

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Trump was reelected it was a 303 map in 2018 Midterms and 2020 the red wall regardless if Trump is in office or not is secure

With Trump in office we only won WVA and OH Senate and KS Gov and KY abd LA Gov and KS and KY Gov mstill Lean D and Manchin is leading in his race we didn't crack the red wall in 2018 even with Trump at 43 in 2018, 2020 it was still a 303 map just like now it's a 303 map until we start getting blue state polls


Trump built the border wall in the first place to keep immigrants out Biden let immigrants in

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott has really done pretty much everything he could in the last few years to make himself vulnerable. It's a red year so he won't be, but he's lucky b/c he thinks this is still an R+20 state or something and it's not.

Users need to stop saying red yr and say a 303 map yr just like we had in 2020 Evers, Shapiro and Whitmer aren't losing
Lol it's not a red year D's in 303 states are outpolling Biden but in a 303 map TX and FL are red and AZ, NM, NV and CO are blue it's VBM and D voters can over one Biden 44 Approvals in VBM election not same day

It was only red yr in 2010 it was 11 percent unemployment and in 2014 we weren't in a Pandemic Obamacare was deeply unpopular

red year red year red year red year red year red year

It's a 303 map because I'm the House most of our losses are gonna be in TX and FL not WI, MI and PA because there are 5 vulnerable Ds in TX this was known before Sinema blocked Voting Rights that's why in Voting Rights it had a ban on Gerrymandering that's why it's not a red yr, wbrooks is a bandwagon jumpers he debated Rs many times and said it's a 393 map not a red yr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump losing definitely helps him, but I wonder if Abbott is more confident about his odds because of that and might have acted differently in a six year itch midterm.

Lol it was a 303 map in 2018 and 2020 it wasnt a 413 map when Trump was on the ballot these declarations that it will be a 423'mapneben when Trump in office are totally false who built the border wall, Trump did and he TX have elected Rick Perry in Bush W Midterms and Biden Midterms and Beto is closer than Crist only 7 pts down and Ryan and Beasley are only 4 down it's still VBM we can still win the Midterms it's not October yet

Demings and Crist will lose to DeSantis moreso than the rest of red state D's running because DeSantis did a good job on Surfside that's why he is so popular, Beto being down seven is good news to him not bad news Crist and Demings are down 20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The map is biased because Beto doesn't have a primary opponent really do you think the Early vote is going to this far apart in the GE, Rs were gonna vote more Rs than D's because Abbott and West race


Beto isn't getting blown out like Crist is, he is 7 pts down not 20 but this is wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto will lose by 6 points.

End of story

On to 2026

LoL do you ever stop it's nine mnths till election Approvals don't elect politicians, we as voters do Biden is not at 37/55 Approvals Trump in IPSOS is at 39, Biden is at 44 and that is close to 50, if we get 50 anything can happen

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOP turnout well ahead in Harris County. Sort of a bad sign for the Democrats . . .

LoL the Democratic turnout is low due to Non competetive Primary, Beto was assured the Nominationin Nov everyone H and Senate will be up we beat Ra in every election 65/60 including 80/75 M Newsom and TMac got high turnout

Users act like we lost the NPVI to RS every election cycle look under Election results we max turnout over Rs including 80/75 M in  20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol the DS didn't have a primary anyways this is TX too

All our candidates are gonna be in the GE ballot in Nov stop comparing a primary to a GE result and Beto didn't have an opponent

Its not gonna be a 1010)14 result maybe in TX but not in MI, PA and WI with 4 percent unemployment not 11 we out register Rs look at California we beat Rs 63/37, a total wipeout isn't in the cards for the GOP since they lost so badly in California

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, the D turnout in these primaries are gonna be low FL, OH and TX the frontrunners are already gonna be the Nominee and enthusiasm is gonna be somewhat Lower than 2020 due to the no stimulus checks but all our candidates are gonna be on the November ballot not the primary and we probably gonna have a 64/69 M turnout which will duplicate the 3o3 in 4 percent unemployment but it's a Midterm not a Prez Election and we won 41 H seats with 46)43 M a 64)6o M turnout is blue wave insurance in a Midterm and we have beaten Rs on the NPI and it was tied 33)33 M in 2010/14

But, turnout among D's aren't gonna be low in GE lookat the Cali Recall we beat Rs by a landslide

I look at Election results and don't go by Approvals I go by the NPVI and from 1988/2004 Rs beat us on NPVI except for 2000/1992/1996 and we have beaten Rs since 2006 by 65/60 M from 2006/20