Past Election Trends

[angus]

Shapeshifter, that's good.  Well, not good as in good for Kerry, but good as in interesting.  It might be more neutral if you do that best-fit line on a plot of votes for party X and extrapolate to 2004.  That's probably what you did for the democrats for the past six contests.  Do the same thing for the republicans for the same number of electoral contests to make it consistent.

[angus]

Dukakis should have done a lot better than he did.  Remember that double-digit lead right after the '88 conventions?  What followed was the worst-managed presidential election campaign by a nominee in recent memory.  That absurd ad where he pops out of the tank like a prairie dog.  His refusal to rebut Bush's Willie Horton attacks.  He managed to look even *more* wimpy and deviod of personality than Bush, which was quite an accomplishment.  So, I don't think it was Dukakis working better than Mondale that increased Democrat votes.

So true.  I had an entry-level job working for the Dukakis-Bentsen campaign.  Mostly telephone canvassing and polling.  It was the worst-run campaign I'd ever been a part of, no doubt.

[angus]

Get bent, both of you.  I should have known I'd be asking for a big helping of crow for admitting that!  

[angus]

dammit!  Shapeshifter I had a really detailed answer for you and posted and got the old 'shame-on-you-silly-bastard-for-not-leaving-enough-time' message!  Basically, go back 6 (or some number of contests) and look at the total number of votes for the Democratic candidate each year.  Plot that number as a function of year.  So there's one point every 4 years, right?  The points will show some scatter (up and down fluctuations) and probably not lie on a straight line, but you can use the linear regression tool in a spreadsheet program such as SigmaPlot or MS Excel to find the line that makes the best fit through that data.  Or just do it with graphing paper and a ruler.  Then extend that line to 2004.  Do the same thing with the republican candidate and see what you get.  Now, mind you, it may not have any relevance, but it might be a fun mathematical exercise.  And it would certainly have greater basis in reality than the straw polls regularly conducted on this forum.

rwn:  well, I never looked it up, but always took its etymology as self-evident.

[angus]

I did my average percentage method for each state. My result was same as 2000 but with NH, FL, and NV going to Kerry. once again, I know this is not scientific but I love playing with numbers.

Me too!  So you should always carry a big wad of cash around with you, just in case you meet someone else who likes numbers.  

Put Nevada back in the grown-up pile, if you don't mind.  

[angus]

No kidding?  What were the numbers?