Why has Texas become so right-wing over the decades? Today, it's best known as the home state of George W. Bush. Ann Richards used to be the governor. The liberal icon LBJ came from Texas.
In 1968, Hubert Humphrey managed to carry Texas but still lose the election even though it was neither his home state nor that of Muskie. While this was LBJ's home state, LBJ was so unpopular that he decided not to run. Clinton was much more popular in 2000 than LBJ was in 1968, yet Gore lost in both his own home state and in Clinton's home state.
The way things are today, no Democratic presidential candidate could carry Texas in anything short of a landslide victory.
One thing seems to be constant, though. If you don't like long, bloody wars, think twice about electing Texans as president.
So what changed since 1968 to change Texas from a liberal state to a right-wing one?
Well, as Al has pointed out, Texas has become more "western" for one thing. If you look at photographs from the 30s and 40s of any gathering in any small town in texas, you won't see cowboy hats and boots. You'll see the dress of southerners. But, over time the Southern culture of Texas has been supplanted by Western culture. (yes, I know that's something of an oversimplification, but basically it gives most of the answer). So, while the New Dealers had a lock on the Solid South, the were losing Texas owing to its vast natural resources, and its penchant for individualism. (again, going back to Elazar's model) In fact, if you look at the I-T boundary, it runs right through the southern half of the middle of the United States, and therefore, right through the middle of Texas.
Johnson was certainly a liberal, in the american sense. But you should not read into that that in the mid 50s Texans preferred Liberals. They just preferred Johnson. Also, it never really has been established that Johnson won his first race on the up-and-up. So it isn't even clear that Texans ever really preferred Johnson over his opponent. The Great Society was his to own, and his to make, and after its inception, Texans began to vote (and dress) increasingly like Westerners and less like Southerners. Not surprising, because unlike, say Alabama, the population of Texas in only a small percent black, but a large percent hispanic. In fact, like California, it is 33% hispanic. Al, I think therein lies your explanation for those few counties (Foard, for example) bucking current trends, the main one, in the West, being that Cowboys like clean air, low taxes, and less intrusive government, whereas Vaqueros (like blacks) have a much larger role in mind when it comes to government. This is also why the GOP, in both California and Texas, is trying so hard to court their vote and yet seeing only marginal success. And it is increasingly why the GOP is turning to a black- and hispanic-oriented versiion of the Nixon strategy. Sleazy? yes. Effective? probably.
"I'm from so deep in Texas that I never even heard the word Republican till I was 18."
--60s FBI agent in
Mississippi Burning
