Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Yoda]

Great and correct move here from Evers. It's basically what DeWine did and it was the common sense and politically smart thing to do. If republicans in Wisconsin continue to fight tooth-and-nail to keep the old election day, they're basically declaring themselves the pro-coronavirus, pro-death party.

[Yoda]

I now 100% support packing the courts. Add 100 new Justices for all I care.

Welcome to the light side. Playing "fair","by the rules" and respecting "historical norms and traditions" is a suicide pact for Dems, especially when republicans have no respect for such things when they stand between them and total, unchecked, minority rule. The modern day republican party is an organized crime syndicate, and the only way to thoroughly defeat them is to take away their illegitimate SCOTUS majority, which acts as a friendly backstop to green light any illegal action they like and stop any legitimate law or rule passed by Democrats they don't like.

[Yoda]

Everyone say thank you to Bernie.

Thanks Bernie!!!

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1250181802632806400

Ben Wikler is an OG. The twitter thread he put up last night after Karofsky won was an epic, inspiring read. Really inspires a lot of confidence in Wisconsin Democrats' game plan for November.

[Yoda]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Really frustrating too in the sense that if everyone knew the Barnes race would only be 1pt, I'm sure he would've been able to maximize resources and come up with some additional ideas to get that last 25-30k votes.

That race eats at me more than anything from the '22 elections. Ron Johnson is a traitor, a liar, a bigot, an election denier and a Putin simp. Getting rid of him would have been a big victory for the country and democracy in general.

[Yoda]

I had to proctor an ACT test today, and the ACT does not allow you to bring in any materials, electronic devices, or books. However, the room did have loose leaf paper, a calculator, and some pens, so I naturally created a SCOWIS election model for April 4th’s election. (5 hours is a long time to sit).

So, here’s what I got: I projected the election to feature 40% turnout (1.44 million votes, less than 2020’s SCOWIS race which turned out 1.542 million but more than 2019’s SCOWIS race of 1.21 million). I guesstimated turnout for each county as close to 40% as I could. Before the test administrators came to pick up electronics I wrote down the registered number of voters per county, which I would use to do the math.

I made some counties’ a bit above 40% and some below, based on educational level, historical turnout, and poverty rates (along with minority population). I pegged Dane County to turn out at 44% but Milwaukee only 36%, with Ozaukee at 48%, Washington 41, Waukesha 42, and Brown 39. The lowest turnout counties I projected were Menominee at 26, Ashland at 32, Sawyer, Rusk, Clark, and Price at 33, and Forest, Langlade, and Marquette at 34.

What I then did is estimate percentage vote totals for each candidate per county. I had Dane go to Janet 83-17, MKE go 64-36 (I assumed low black turnout) Waukesha 62-38 for Kelly, Ozaukee 55-45 Kelly, and Washington at 69-31 Kelly.

What I ultimately came up with was a Janet +3.8 win, with a majority of 55,000 votes. I intentionally tried to be just a hint bearish on Dem turnout, since historically minority turnout in these are pretty low; that’s why I had Ashland, Menominee, Bayfield, Sawyer, and MKE with lower turnout and more GOP leaning than you’d otherwise expect.

Obviously, trying to model a nonpartisan SCOWIS race is a fool’s errand for a number of reasons, but I had 5+ hours that I wasn’t allowed to do anything so I tried. If anybody has specific questions about counties or turnout, ask away. This was a nonscientific exercise, so I’m welcome to comments or debate.

This is the sh**t I joined Atlas to read. Top tier content. Can't wait to compare the results to your forecast walleye.

[Yoda]

4/3/2023 Absentee Report



Dane County passed Waukesha County based on VAP Turnout %.

Really hoping Milwaukee kills it in turnout tomorrow.

[Yoda]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

Will you go away for a while if he loses? Or at least stop it with the dooming?

[Yoda]

I haven't followed this race at all but my prediction is that the liberal wins by more than people on Atlas think she will. This strikes me as an abortion-focused race and those have not gone the Republicans' way since the ayatollahs took down Roe v. Wade.

It seems that the narrative going into 2024 can be affirmed or lost because of this race.

There is probably some truth to this. Man, I'm not gonna be able to focus on anything today.

[Yoda]

Come on WI voters , don’t allow Scott Walker’s legacy to be completely trashed .

How do you trash that which is already pure garbage?

[Yoda]

How soon before state and federal congressional maps are over turned?

Democrats could net four more congressional seats, making winning the house next year much easier.

And the Republican super majority would become 50-50.

Unfortunately this will probably be more than cancelled out by the radical NC supreme court allowing republicans to viciously gerrymander again. However, there is a decent chance Ohio is forced (and by forced I mean told to follow their own Constitution) to redraw their maps that will yield 7 dems and 8 republicans.

[Yoda]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

LOL that's long gone. VA, NM, NV, and CO are not coming back

[Yoda]

RIPBOZO, by the way

https://twitter.com/AJBayatpour/status/1643439487911964672

https://twitter.com/AJBayatpour/status/1643439847602900992

What a piece of f****** s***. This coming from a guy who tried to help trump steal an election. Clown ass mofo

[Yoda]

What's going on in the Senate special, I'm seeing it called for both Dems and reps by et people

What's the link to follow this race?

[Yoda]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

LOL that's long gone. VA, NM, NV, and CO are not coming back

What makes you say Nevada is a lost cause for Republicans? It only voted for Biden by 2%, and it only voted for Masto by 1%.

B/c I personally think it's kind of turned into the republicans' white whale as far as presidential races are concerned. They'll probably come ooooh so close for the foreseeable future, but lose it nonetheless every time.

[Yoda]

Guys, guys. Everyone chill out. Florence County is at ZERO PERCENT reported. This whole thing could still go the other way....

[Yoda]

Guys, guys. Everyone chill out. Florence County is at ZERO PERCENT reported. This whole thing could still go the other way....

We need Steve Kornacki on the case RIGHT NOW!

I was poking around the map and realized THERE'S AN EVEN SMALLER COUNTY?! Menominee County small as hell lol. TWO precincts? And literally as I was typing this it updated and IT'S BLUE AF?? 70-30 Janet win. Wisconsin is wild. Indian reservation county?

[Yoda]

PROTASIEWICZ WON THE CITY OF WAUKESHA!!!

https://twitter.com/Waukeshadems/status/1643471832073269248?s=20

The Wisconsin GOP is screwed unless they can somehow get the rural to start voting like they do in Iowa. A Democrat getting 40% or more in Waukesha County is lethal.

I imagine Republicans are more likely to try to make it illegal for people in Milwaukee and Madison to vote.

If they had super majorities in both chambers, I'd bet you $1,000,000 that they would pass a law giving themselves the power to toss out all the votes in counties that they deem to have had "fraudulent" or "irregular" results, and if the court had a conservative majority they would find nothing wrong with that.

[Yoda]

It's probably been said already, but wow did turnout just smash all predictions/expectations. I think walleye predicted 1.44, the most wildly optimistic turnout models had it around 1.5 million voters, and it's looking like we'll end up around 1.85 million. Just staggering turnout.

Couldn't be happier that gerrymandering looks certain to end in WI. The party that regularly receives > 50% of the vote having 1/3 of the legislative seats is third world, rogue state, fascist bullsh**t.

[Yoda]

Looking at results from last night it strikes me what a Democratic monster Dane county has become.

-Turnout in Dane was 80% of Nov 22. Statewide was 69% of Nov 22. Waukesha was 73% of Nov 22.
-Janet P got 82% of the vote in Dane. Obama only got 71% in Dane in 2012.

But even with all that Janet P would still have won if you exclude Dane's results.

And IIRC from reading this somewhere last night turnout was under 50% in Milwaukee? If true, dems still have a sizable # of voters left to turn out in future elections.

[Yoda]

Looking at results from last night it strikes me what a Democratic monster Dane county has become.

-Turnout in Dane was 80% of Nov 22. Statewide was 69% of Nov 22. Waukesha was 73% of Nov 22.
-Janet P got 82% of the vote in Dane. Obama only got 71% in Dane in 2012.

But even with all that Janet P would still have won if you exclude Dane's results.

And IIRC from reading this somewhere last night turnout was under 50% in Milwaukee? If true, dems still have a sizable # of voters left to turn out in future elections.

It was at 45.3%, which is still a modern record for spring elections.

Looking at results from last night it strikes me what a Democratic monster Dane county has become.

-Turnout in Dane was 80% of Nov 22. Statewide was 69% of Nov 22. Waukesha was 73% of Nov 22.
-Janet P got 82% of the vote in Dane. Obama only got 71% in Dane in 2012.

But even with all that Janet P would still have won if you exclude Dane's results.

And IIRC from reading this somewhere last night turnout was under 50% in Milwaukee? If true, dems still have a sizable # of voters left to turn out in future elections.

I hate to say thats normal, but for off-cycle elections it is but not so extreme divergence as yesterday. We all knew and discussed pre-election that urban diverse Milwaukee turnout is low during these primaries/non-federal elections, and Dane seemingly always punches above its weight as if to counteract it.

Oh I for sure get that it's great turnout for an off-cycle spring election, what with urban minorities being less likely to vote when it's not a prez election and all. I'm just saying that in a presidential year, dems still have room to grow b/c of this. Replicate this turnout elsewhere in the state and get Milwaukee up to 60/65 and dems would absolutely romp. If we're fortunate enough to get new state legislature maps in time for '24, with trump as the repub nominee, I can see dems with a very, very good shot at getting the trifecta. Then Walker's legacy can truly be ripped out root and branch.

[Yoda]

Milwaukee needs its own Ben Wikler, or he needs to travel there and try and duplicate what he's done in Dane.

The issue is that Dane is will of high propensity voter groups, college educated whites being the lion’s share. Whereas Milwaukee is almost all low propensity voters, a lot of black and Hispanic voters. The same tricks that work in Dane won’t work there

WI dems should try to move statewide office elections to presidential years if they ever get the chance. Preferably put forward a ballot amendment to voters.

[Yoda]

Milwaukee needs its own Ben Wikler, or he needs to travel there and try and duplicate what he's done in Dane.

The issue is that Dane is will of high propensity voter groups, college educated whites being the lion’s share. Whereas Milwaukee is almost all low propensity voters, a lot of black and Hispanic voters. The same tricks that work in Dane won’t work there

WI dems should try to move statewide office elections to presidential years if they ever get the chance. Preferably put forward a ballot amendment to voters.

How? No Dem measure is passing those R legislative majorities.

Obviously in this hypothetical I meant if they won control of the legislature.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1667760494436859909

I already forgot WI doesn't have term limits. He might be the best Dem to keep the seat, though it might be more difficult in a 2nd Biden midterm unless the GOP nominates another weirdo.

He's probably absolutely dreaming of a potential term in office where the legislature isn't under a republican gerrymander. If the WI supreme court strikes down the gerrymander, as pretty much everyone expects them to now that D's have a majority, I can definitely see him running again so he can have a chance at enacting his agenda and not just vetoing republican craziness.

[Yoda]

Literal Parks and Rec scenario in Wausau.

https://twitter.com/voidofroses/status/1775565069587279904?s=46

Sooooo....what was this guy's platform? Does he have some plan to undo all of the expensive modifications to the water purification system, put PFAS chemicals back in the water supply and reduce water bills?