2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[DownWithTheLeft]

I've started two topics, we could bump them.  I am really, really hoping for Corzine to get a job in Obama's administration.  The question then is if Codey runs this time instead of pussing out like last time.  New Jersey usually has a lose-lose situation in elections, but Christie/Codey is a win-win

[DownWithTheLeft]

Here's my ratings:

Corzine v. Christie - Weak lean Corzine
Codey v. Christie - Tossup
Christie v. anyone else - Lean Christie
Dem v. GOP not named Chrisite - Strong Dem

[DownWithTheLeft]

Actually I think if Codey runs instead of Corzine, Codey wins easily. Heck, even I would vote for him.

I agree that Codey would have more crossover support, of course I would not support him in this election as Chris Christie is my favorite.  I just think the fact that he is so popular and moderate stems from the fact that he does not get the backing of the machine which would hurt him.  Here's my number predictions:

Corzine (D) 50 - Christie (R) 48
Christie (R) 51 - Codey (D) 48
Codey (D) 55 - Generic GOP/Kean Jr. (R) 44
Corzine (D) 58 - Generic GOP/Kean Jr. (R) 41
Christie (R) 52 - Generic (D) 47
Corzine/Codey (D) 53 - Murphy (R) 46

[DownWithTheLeft]

Here's a little breakdown for those unfamiliar (like the one done for Virginia):

NOTE: This will be first NJ election with Lt. Gov. as measured was passed in 2005

Result from 2005:
Sen. Jon Corzine (D) 53.47% - 2002 Sen. Candidate Doug Forrester (R) 43.02%

GOP Primary
2002 Candidate Doug Forrester                                                   36.01%
Fmr. Jersey City Mayor/2001 Candidate Bret Schundler                31.21%
Morris County Freeholder John Murphy                                         11.17%
Bogota Mayor/Anti-Illegal Immigration Activist Steve Lonegan      8.08%
Washington Twp. Councilman Robert Schroder                              5.54%
St. Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano                                                   5.52%
Failure at Life Todd Caliguire                                                          2.47%

2009 Democratic

Gov. Jon Corzine will seek a second term barring an appointment to the Obama administration, if he does potential candidates include:

St. Sen. Pres. and Fmr. Gov. Richard Codey
Rep. Rush Holt
Some corrupt Dem

2009 Republican Primary

Expected Candidate/Savior:
US Atty Christopher Christie

Likely to Run:
St. Sen./Failure at Life/2006 Candidate Tom Kean Jr.
Morris County Freeholder John Murphy
St. Sen. Kevin O'Toole
Fmr. Nazi "Jersey Joe" Pennachio
My Hero Steven Lonegan
Bob "I Have A Lot of Money to Throw Around" Schroder

Unlikely to Run/Huge Pussy:
St. Sen. Bill Baroni

[DownWithTheLeft]

BTW, if Christie isn't the GOP nominee its over

[DownWithTheLeft]

Assemblyman Richard Merkt(R) has already formed an exploratory committee and is running.

As, yes, the token Morris County politician. For some reason, there's always a Morris County politician in Republican primaries, and he always gets third.

Twenty bucks on a Morris County winning this time

[DownWithTheLeft]

Murphy says he won't get in the race if Christie or Crowley do citing not wanting multiple Morris county people in the race.  Great news for Christie in the primary

[DownWithTheLeft]

County Clerk Lisa Donovan

Do you mean Kathleen Donovan or is there another county clerk named Donovan with a lot of clout?

I agree with you on Murphy on Lt. Gov., possibly why he will choose against running.  With Christie stepping down today as US Atty, its all but a guarantee at this point

[DownWithTheLeft]

It's New Jersey. We know which party will win the office.

Didn't Jersey have a Republican governor recently?  DiFrancesco or something.

Christie Whitman in 1997, DiFrancesco, who was a buffoon, served in 2001 after Whitman left to head the EPA which killed the NJ GOP

[DownWithTheLeft]

For some reason I thought that was the Hurricane Carter guy that murdered like 7 people

[DownWithTheLeft]

Has the man I supported in 2005, Ed Furchione (or something similar to that) declared?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Does anyone know where I can get the video from NJN of Christie's visit to Rutherford last week?  Apparently (although I missed it myself) I was on there

[DownWithTheLeft]

Christie leads by 7 without leaners and 12 with?  That means about a 3 point victory.

Folks its almost all but over right now

[DownWithTheLeft]

Wow the internals are amazing for Chrisite

40% of people say they could change by their mind, but of those who have decided, Christie leads by 16 points.  If those who could change their mind, 60% disapprove of Corzine's job as governor, while 38% strongly disapprove.

Screw my last assesment, Christie by 8+

[DownWithTheLeft]

I am, though not many are , very interested to see how this race affects downballot races.  Bergen County still has an all Democratic freeholder board, Republicans need seats there.  If he runs well in Bergen, the GOP also has a great chance of carrying the ultra competitive 36 district

[DownWithTheLeft]

In all honesty its pretty much over

[DownWithTheLeft]

In all honesty its pretty much over

Wow. No.

There is nothing really that is an anonmally about this poll.  Republicans usually about at worst 10 points than they poll now.  But that has to do with undecideds breaking heavily.  Right now Christie is above 50% consistently meaning he does not need to worry about late breakers

[DownWithTheLeft]

Now this folks... this is embarrassing:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(Political Wire)

CORZINE TO NJ: I NO LONGER WANT TO WIN

[DownWithTheLeft]

Almost negligible?   Perhaps for now, but I think there will a percentage of people who are lukewarm Christie supporters and think "is this guy for real with this pick?"

Christie does not really need any new supporters he just needs to sure up ones he has.  Call me crazy but I honestly think he is going to break 55%

[DownWithTheLeft]

WTF???  Chris Christie has just released a statement in support of the confirmation of Sodomizer.  This is disgraceful and I am seriously considering changing my support to Daggett

[DownWithTheLeft]

WTF???  Chris Christie has just released a statement in support of the confirmation of Sodomizer.  This is disgraceful and I am seriously considering changing my support to Daggett

Who cares? He doesn't have a vote, and she's going to be confirmed with 80+ votes anyway. And this guy has argued in front of judges many times, he knows what a qualified judge is.

And he also says SHE WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN HIS CHOICE. Stop being such a far-right nut.

I am entitled to momentary rage

[DownWithTheLeft]

Because its short-lived, but intense

[DownWithTheLeft]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_qRU0pNXPA   

I was really hoping for my fellow Rutherfordian, don't know much about this lady.  She is the Monmouth County Sheriff

[DownWithTheLeft]

Ugh she's from Monmouth Beach

[DownWithTheLeft]

Strategic Vision:

Christie (R): 53%
Corzine (D): 38%
Daggett (I): 5%

(official numbers will be released later)

4% undecided?  That can't be possible although maybe this time it is