IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[wesmoorenerd]

Not a lot of Indiana talk, eh?

The imbalance between the MO-GOP and IN-GOP has just become comical. A year ago McCaskill was definitely more vulnerable than Donnelly, but one state GOP has been decently competent and the other certainly has not. Braun is the only GOP challenger to any Dem Senator that I would consider an (exceedingly slight) favorite right now.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/JoshuaKarp/status/1027917575051796480

Ooh, this is the exact kind of thing that could make a massive difference in such a close race. Let's see how the Donnelly campaign plays their cards here. The blatant hypocrisy isn't a good look for Braun and it could seriously make a huge difference if Donnelly were to capitalize on it.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/JoshuaKarp/status/1027917575051796480

Ooh, this is the exact kind of thing that could make a massive difference in such a close race. Let's see how the Donnelly campaign plays their cards here. The blatant hypocrisy isn't a good look for Braun and it could seriously make a huge difference if Donnelly were to capitalize on it.

This won't make a lick of difference. Donnelly's own brother profited from shipping jobs to Mexico and Donnelly owned shares in that same company. Any attack on Braun will be answered with that so it'll have a net neutral impact. Donnelly is still toast and this doesn't change anything.

The point isn't that Donnelly can use this line of attack on Braun, it's that Braun can't use it on Donnelly. This completely neutralizes his "Mexico Joe" line of attack and makes him look like a hypocrite for attacking Donnelly on his Mexican outsourcing. And it's been said above but Donnelly is far from toast, he's more like a lightly warmed muffin.

[wesmoorenerd]

Comparing Donnelly to Bayh completely ignores the reason why Bayh lost. Bayh lost because:

A) Indiana swung hard for Trump
B) he was imploding because of his lobbying and the fact that he had just moved back to Indiana

Donnelly has neither of these problems. Based on the GCB and Trump's approval in the state, Indiana's 2016 Trumpslide was something of an anomaly. In addition, Donnelly has none of Bayh's personal problems. He's a sitting Senator, not a retread.

[wesmoorenerd]

Let's not forget Indiana is a state where the Dem base is important, and not giving them any reason at all to stay home is a good idea for Donnelly. Tossup -> Tossup.

This is a great point. Indiana is not North Dakota or West Virginia, there's a sizable Dem base in the state (Indianapolis, Gary, and South Bend proper) that Donnelly needs to get high turnout from if he wants to win. Donnelly needs all the crossover support he can get, and he needs to do that to win, but without the base he's pretty much DOA.