2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[wesmoorenerd]

Tennessee being on here means that Dems still have hopes for Bredesen

Why wouldn't Dems have hopes for Bredesen? I know Atlas is massively skeptical of him but y'all are acting like he's DOA like Bayh when he's shown no indication of being anywhere near weak.

[wesmoorenerd]

OJEDAAAAA

TX31 I haven't heard anything about. Hegar looks like a good candidate at a cursory glance though. Might be a longshot sleeper race.

[wesmoorenerd]

Sabato's new senate map. We seem to be keying in on the nine races identified by McConnell and the Dem Senate Majority Pac as deciding the chamber. Everything else is now likely or safe. I disagree on a few of these ratings, but the 9 seats would still all be in the lean/tossup zone that decides the chamber.

I'm wondering which of the major forecasters is going to be the first to take the bold step of moving NV (UTDH notwithstanding) and AZ to Lean D, where they clearly should be. WV should be moved back to Lean D, Morrisey is a dud of a candidate. TN is solidly a tossup. NJ is Safe D. Those are about my only problems with these rankings at this point, however.

[wesmoorenerd]

Why does everyone think Barbara Comstock is the most vulnerable incumbent lol. She is not even in the top 5.

Then post the more vulnerable incumbents. If you disagree with most posters and the professional handicappers atleast make a case for why Comstock is not even in the top5 of the most vulnerable incumbents in the house.

01. Carlos Curbelo
02. Will Hurd
03. Brian Fitzpatrick
04. Jeff Denham
05. Steve Knight
06. Rod Blum
07. Bruce Poliquin
08. Don Bacon
09. Barbara Comstock
10. Jason Lewis

This list is just as bad as expected. You have people as more likely to lose that are in district that were won by HRC by less then VA-10, have weaker challengers, have stronger republicans up the ballot and are not polling at -10 in a H2H matchup.

Here's a list that doesn't suck:
1. Barbara Comstock
2. Rod Blum
3. Jason Lewis
4. Keith Rothfus
5. Carlos Curbelo
6. Mike Coffman
7. Steve Knight
8. Jeff Denham
9. Brian Fitzpatrick
10. John Faso

Hurd and Poliquin are vulnerable but not top ten vulnerable if you ask me. Bacon is also vulnerable but certainly not top ten vulnerable against Eastman.

[wesmoorenerd]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Agreed I would switch ND and Tenn

I think IN is more likely to flip than ND.

I agree. The Dems are favored to flip all three of NV, AZ, and TN at this point in time but there's a very good chance either IN or ND (or both) flip. However, pretty much every other Dem seat favors the incumbent, even if it's by a slim margin. I really do think the Dems' chances of taking back the Senate are underrated because the only seats that could really trip them up at this point are IN and ND. Heller is toast in NV, Sinema has a big lead in AZ, Bredesen is up in TN, Hawley is throwing MO away, Manchin and Tester are going to breeze by their C-tier challengers, and I have faith that Nelson will get up to speed and win in FL.

[wesmoorenerd]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Not that infeasible a scenario statistically speaking. IIRC, incumbent senators of the out of power party running for reelection during midterms have like a 95% reelection rate. Democrats losing only one senate seat this year would fit that average performance, so if the Republicans perform below average this year at the ballot box, they won't flip a single senate seat. Based on the fundamentals and special election results, this is certainly shaping up to be a very below average year for Republicans.

Still, with about 10 Democratic Senators running in Trump (2016) states, again - count me skeptical...

Casey, Brown, Staebnow, and Baldwin are safe, Tester and Manchin pulled weak challengers and have strong local brands, and Hawley's looking like he's going to blow it with McCaskill. So you're likely only dealing with 3 real races with Nelson, Heitkamp, and Donnely.

Plus don't forget that we have three golden pickup opportunities as well.

All of that taken together is why I think it's insane that places like PredictIt have the chances of a Democratic takeover at like 20%. Dems are up in NV, AZ, and TN, even if you put aside UTDH being a "tossup" and Bredesen being up consistently somehow counting as "lean R". Nelson will almost certainly increase his lead over Scott. People are making a huge deal out of his campaign not having enough Latino outreach and all but it's July. Nobody is paying attention yet! This is the kind of cardinal political junkie sin that people commit all too often. The fundamentals of this race all point toward Nelson, and even if Scott can indeed give him a fight (which he will) I fully expect Nelson to pull this one out. Donnelly and Heitkamp are easily the most vulnerable points for Dems, but in an environment like this I doubt they both go for Republicans, there's a good chance that neither do. There's pretty much zero polling on Indiana (thanks, absurd anti-polling laws) and Heitkamp is consistently underestimated, like she was in 2012. When you consider all of those factors together, I find it seriously absurd that PredictIt has Democratic control at 20%.

[wesmoorenerd]

National Journal has an article that presents the theory Democrats may not be able to depend on Hispanics:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/669861?unlock=KAUSQTFQV9QBKC1M

This is probably accurate and why CA-10 and CA-21 are not moving to the Dems as people would hope. It's going to take other shifts combined with normal Hispanic turnout.

I could see CA-10 flipping but yes, this theory probably has some merit and I’d be stunned if Valadao lost.

CA-10 is definitely a tossup, CA-21 is looking very safe for the GOP. I'd put CA-21 along with NY-24, NY-02 (if King retires), NV-02, and WI-07 in the "try again in 2020" category.

[wesmoorenerd]

Inside Elections made four Senate changes (3 pro-Dem, 1 pro-Rep):

WV: Tossup -> Tilt D
WI: Tilt D -> Lean D
OH: Lean D -> Likely D
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
ND: Tossup -> Tilt R

Also, if forced to push the Tossups, they have D+2 (Arizona and Nevada) and R+1 (North Dakota), predicting a 50-50 chamber with Pence breaking the tie.

Pushing ND to Tilt R is quite bold. You could certainly make an argument for it, but there's still not a lot of polling and I think time is on Heitkamp's side (she's a better campaigner than Cramer).

Also, WI should definitely be at Likely D, TN should definitely be at Tossup.

[wesmoorenerd]

Inside Elections made four Senate changes (3 pro-Dem, 1 pro-Rep):

WV: Tossup -> Tilt D
WI: Tilt D -> Lean D
OH: Lean D -> Likely D
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
ND: Tossup -> Tilt R

Also, if forced to push the Tossups, they have D+2 (Arizona and Nevada) and R+1 (North Dakota), predicting a 50-50 chamber with Pence breaking the tie.

Pushing ND to Tilt R is quite bold. You could certainly make an argument for it, but there's still not a lot of polling and I think time is on Heitkamp's side (she's a better campaigner than Cramer).

It is perfectly reasonable.

If the election were to happen today, Cramer would probably win, but November is pretty much 50/50. I don't think Heitkamp is at enough of a disadvantage to warrant a Tilt R rating in any case, certainly not when Heller and the AZ seat are still Tossups.

[wesmoorenerd]

Also worth noting that Inside Elections sort of randomly just moved PA-08 (Matt Cartwright's seat) from Likely to Lean D. Why? No idea.

[wesmoorenerd]

RRH updated their rankings

Some high(low)lights:

CT-05 as a Toss U
KY-03 as Likely D

LOL

Haha KY-03? That's nuts.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1016275773408174081

HOT DAMN!

Shame it has to be Hurd, I always considered him one of the more respectable GOP reps.

[wesmoorenerd]

CA-45, IA-03, NJ-03, and Texas have democratic candidates showing financial strength.

https://twitter.com/KyleTrygstad/status/1016310047117373440

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1016309708490182656

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1016302369401966592

Very, very good numbers. Dems clearly have the cash advantage at this point in time, the only exceptions being self funders.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/evanasmith/status/1017216114135314432

Wew lad Beto's campaign is going to be a force of nature, regardless of if he wins

[wesmoorenerd]

Cunningham outraises Arrington in SC-01:

Cunningham pulled in $353,353 in the year’s second, April 1-June 30, fundraising quarter. He spent $253,763 and he now has $318,937 cash on hand.

For the full fundraising quarter, [Arrington] raised $131,343. During that same three-month period, she loaned her campaign $400,000 of her own money, and spent $456,899.

I wasn't really thinking Cunningham had a real shot, but those are good numbers. Likely R.

Shame the 7th isn't really vulnerable, I've got family there and I hate having to see them represented by a Pub.

[wesmoorenerd]

My count is now at 62 GOP held seats where Democrats raised more last quarter.

Do you happen to have a running list?

[wesmoorenerd]

My count is now at 62 GOP held seats where Democrats raised more last quarter.

Do you happen to have a running list?

I do!

Incumbent   Seat
Open   AZ-02
LaMalfa   CA-01
McClintock   CA-04
Denham   CA-10
Valadao   CA-21
Knight   CA-25
Open   CA-39
Walters   CA-45
Rohrabach CA-48
Open   CA-49
Hunter   CA-50
Tipton   CO-03
Coffman   CO-06
Buchanan   FL-16
Open   FL-27
Handel   GA-06
Woodall   GA-07
Blum           IA-03
Bost           IL-12
Hultgren   IL-14
Open   KS-02
Yoder   KS-03
Barr           KY-06
Poliquin   ME-02
Bishop   MI-08
Open   MI-11
Paulsen   MN-03
Lewis   MN-02
Wagner   MO-02
Holding   NC-02
Open   NC-09
Budd           NC-13
Open   ND-AL
Bacon   NE-02
Open   NJ-02
MacArthur   NJ-03
Lance   NJ-07
Open   NJ-11
Open   NM-02
King           NY-02
Faso           NY-19
Tenney   NY-22
Katko   NY-22
Chabot   OH-01
Open   PA-05
Open   PA-06
Open   PA-07
Kelly           PA-10
Rothfus   PA-17
Open   SC-01
Culberson   TX-07
Open   TX-21
Olson   TX-22
Hurd           TX-23
Carter   TX-31
Sessions   TX-32
Taylor   VA-02
Brat           VA-07
Comstock   VA-10
Rodgers   WA-05
Grothman   WI-06
Open   WV-03

There very well could be some errors and I know I have probably missed some.

wow that's a lot

[wesmoorenerd]

Even with all the vulnerable Republicans being outraised by Democrats, there's still a good few Republicans who outraised their Democratic opponents. Some notable ones I've noticed are Dino Rossi, Carlos Curbelo, Brian Fitzpatrick, Peter Roskam, Troy Balderson, Mia Love, Greg Gianforte, Rodney Davis, Dan Donovan, French Hill, Fred Upton, Brian Mast, Lee Zeldin, and David Joyce. They're still outnumbered by their outraised compatriots, however.

[wesmoorenerd]

Looks like, in terms of raw contributions, Fitzpatrick ended up outraising Wallace in PA-01, with Wallace raising $303,938.61 and Fitzpatrick raising $424,739.53. Wallace is really shaping up to be one of the weakest challengers of the cycle.

[wesmoorenerd]

Two entrenched Northeast Republicans may be more vulnerable than they appear. Pete King (NY-02) and Chris Smith (NJ-04) were both outraised by their opponents, Liuba Gretchen Shirley and Josh Welle. Smith was outraised by more than 2 to 1! Still not likely flips by any means, but I'm shocked these longtime powerhouses are getting outraised.

NY-02:
Liuba Gretchen Shirley (D): $141,776.03
Pete King (R): $117,105.00

NJ-04:
Josh Welle (D): $275,298.98
Chris Smith (R): $134,500.70

[wesmoorenerd]

Another highlight from the fundraising reports: Jared Huffman (CA-02)'s opponent, Dale Mensing, raised a grand total of zero dollars for the quarter. Impressive numbers.

[wesmoorenerd]

Rating changes on Sabato:

AR-02 (Hill): Likely R > Lean R
FL-13 (Crist): Likely D > Safe D
FL-16 (Buchanan): Likely R > Lean R
IA-03 (Young): Lean R > Tossup
IA-04 (King): Safe R > Likely R
IL-06 (Roskam): Lean R > Tossup
IN-02 (Walorski): Safe R > Likely R
IN-09 (Hollingsworth): Safe R > Likely R
KY-06 (Barr): Lean R > Tossup
MI-08 (Bishop): Lean R > Tossup
NM-02 (Open): Likely R > Lean R
OH-01 (Chabot): Lean R > Tossup
OH-12 Special: Lean R > Tossup
PA-16 (Kelly): Safe R > Likely R
TX-07 (Culberson): Lean R > Tossup
TX-31 (Carter): Safe R > Likely R
WV-03 (Open): Lean R > Tossup

There are now 34 Republican held tossups and 2 Democratic held tossups. GOP is favoured in 200 seats and the Dems are favoured in 199.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-house-tilts-toward-the-democrats/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Crystal_Ball+%28Larry+J.+Sabato%27s+Crystal+Ball%29

Most of the ratings changes are just catching up to Cook. King is the biggest new name on the board.

I gotta say, it's shocking to me that none of the three major forecasters moved Hollingsworth's district to Likely R. The pundits are ignoring a lot of deep (non-Atlas) red district sleeper races, like MD-01, CO-04, and AL-05.

[wesmoorenerd]

Hollingsworth is safe

I mean, he's very likely going to win, but he's clearly not safe. Liz Watson is a great candidate who outraised Hollingsworth Q2 and despite being in a deep R district the DCCC apparently considers the race competitive enough to give her support in the form of Red to Blue.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/nmeyersohn/status/1027349409921748993

How about 34 or 36 more seats than they need?

[wesmoorenerd]

Republicans see IA-01 and MN-02 slipping away already, along with many open seats in AZ, FL, NJ and PA.

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1027550387971211264

They're probably correct. Comstock and Rothfus are obviously pretty much DOA, but Blum and especially Lewis aren't that far off.