2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wesmoorenerd]

Utah pollster Dan Jones has passed away.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900040085/utah-leaders-former-students-mourn-passing-of-political-icon-dan-jones.html

How awful. I always appreciated his willingness to poll the races that nobody else would.

RIP to a great pollster.

[wesmoorenerd]

Yvette Herrell seaking a rematch in NM-2

Her conduct was an embarrassment after the election and she didn't wage a strong enough campaign to win a fairly red district in the first place. I think Torres Small is an underdog against most candidates but not against Herrell.

[wesmoorenerd]

Richard Bew, former assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, looking at running in the NC-03 special as a Democrat.

https://twitter.com/RobertWHoward/status/1101138875320279040

Formidable as he would be, I don't really think this district is winnable for Dems.

[wesmoorenerd]

Richard Bew, former assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, looking at running in the NC-03 special as a Democrat.

https://twitter.com/RobertWHoward/status/1101138875320279040

Formidable as he would be, I don't really think this district is winnable for Dems.

Yes, the PVI is R+12. Collin Peterson is there, UT-4 is R+13, and OK-5 and SC-1 are hanging out at R+10 but that's it among ~50 Republicans.

Collin Peterson is a longtime incumbent and all three of the districts you mentioned are trending toward the Dems. NC-03 has neither of those factors.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1105484077304606721

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1105484077304606721

Safe to say Olson's the strongest candidate thus far here?

maybe, but she blatantly carpetbagged from 80 miles away.

Literally nobody cares about cross-district carpetbagging

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1105484077304606721

Safe to say Olson's the strongest candidate thus far here?

maybe, but she blatantly carpetbagged from 80 miles away.

Literally nobody cares about cross-district carpetbagging

This is utterly false.

Depends on how transient an area is it seems. It doesn’t seem to hurt people in places where a lot of the population doesn’t have deep family ties to an area (think: California). But it certainly seems to hurt at the margins at the very least. Like that nutcase who lost the TX-07 primary last year, Tom McClintock, Alex Mooney’s embarrassing margins

Alex Mooney carpetbagged across state lines. There's a big difference between that and moving between districts in an already gerrymandered state.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1110668016524627968?s=19

DePasquale considering against Perry, would probably be the Dems' best possible choice.

[wesmoorenerd]

Promising looking Dem recruit jumping in against John Katko

"Roger Misso, a Red Creek native who was a naval flight officer on combat missions in the Middle East, is the first Democrat to enter the 24th Congressional District race against Republican U.S. Rep. John Katko."

Pros: veteran with a strong record, including serving in one of the first combat missions against ISIS, advocate for sexual assault survivors

Cons: appears to have only recently moved back to the district, although attacks on this point could backfire McGrath style

I'd much rather try someone new here than go with Balter again, for what it's worth.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/WinterForMT/status/1113089463415136257

He and Ammar will be the babes of Congress

Katie Hill and Conor Lamb have already taken this titles.

Cunningham > Lamb any day of the week and twice on Sundays

[wesmoorenerd]

Lmao at the blue avatar hot takes in this thread.

Yes, the people of Charleston and Oklahoma City went through a period of collective amnesia in 2018 where they forgot their party identification and blindly decided to vote for the Demonrat candidate. They'll have lost such a justification for voting blue in 2020, of course.

Anyway, my favorite fresh recruits of this cycle thus far: Roger Misso, Scott Cooper, Peter Khalil, Jon Hoadley, Elisa Cardnell, Adair Boroughs

[wesmoorenerd]

NY-15: Ruben Diaz Sr. iN

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/ruben-diaz-sr-run-congress-saying-hes-opposite-aoc

I really wanted him to run and would make a great Representative, he just has to get through the primary, could we have a HI-01 redux, where the most conservative candidate wins the primary

Gross

Please explain why, I think he'd be a great Congressman

The article you yourself linked has this as its sub-header:

The city councilman who drew fire for his inflammatory remarks about LGBT people says he will run to replace Rep. Jose Serrano.

Yeah, Diaz is one of the worst Democrats in America. Let's pray that the people of NY-15 see through this charlatan's facade.

[wesmoorenerd]

Horn won for a reason, y'all. She's not going to get blanched.

[wesmoorenerd]

Horn Blanche Lincolnwon for a reason, y'all. She's not going to get blanched.

I agree she won't be Blanched, but your statement is not the reason, why

Yeah, she'll be Landrieued/Heitkamped instead

All three of those candidates had significant political shifts in their term, including the Tea Party and the rise of Trump, that shunted their states to the right and increased polarization.

Horn isn't going to lose by 20 two years after she won in a likely similar political environment.

[wesmoorenerd]

State Auditor Eugene DePasquale is officially IN for PA-10

Arguably the best House recruit of the cycle for the Dems so far. Onto the endorsement signature he goes!

[wesmoorenerd]

NRCC internal: Malinowski TRAILS generic R, 44-42.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/nrcc-poll-malinowski-in-close-re-election-race-remains-largely-unknown/

Lol sure.

Malinowski is probably the most vulnerable Clinton district Democrat, but he's still inherently pretty safe. Likely D.

[wesmoorenerd]

Oldish news, but two strong Democratic candidates that deserve a mention...

Babylon Councilwoman and retired Army lieutenant colonel Jackie Gordon is IN for NY-02. She's probably the strongest candidate Pete King has faced in quite a while, but she still faces an uphill battle against the entrenched incumbent. However, King is getting up there in years, and it's entirely possible he retires - not to mention his campaigning and fundraising has gotten sloppy as of late. I'd rate this one as Likely R for now, but this could definitely get more competitive.

Businessman Phil Arballo is IN for CA-22. He faces some primary opposition, but it's not looking particularly strong, and he got the endorsement of 2018 nominee Andrew Janz. Democrats would really love to knock off Devin Nunes, so I imagine he'll get substantial fundraising. Another Likely R race.

[wesmoorenerd]

Further Dem House recruitment news:

State Rep. Donald Valdez is IN for CO-03. He's a great candidate: reputation as a maverick and strong on local issues. He's going up against 2018 candidate Diane Mitsch Bush in the primary, although I think he has a better shot in the GE. Likely R, but Valdez is another stellar recruit.

This one's hot off the presses: it looks Nikki Foster just filed for OH-01. Air Force veteran and another strong recruit. She's going to face some primary opposition, but she'd be a stronger candidate than Pureval in the general. Lean R and a top ten target.

[wesmoorenerd]

Some Republican numbers from Texas:

TX-06: Wright $72,345
TX-08: Brady $650,257
TX-10: McCaul $646,095
TX-22: Olson $377,529

Brady is quite safe, unfortunately.

[wesmoorenerd]

Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

[wesmoorenerd]

Big recruitment news across the board today...

https://twitter.com/wendydavis/status/1153280783383191552?

[wesmoorenerd]

Dems land another top recruit in State Rep. Adam Hattersley (FL-15)

[wesmoorenerd]

Carter, Williams, McCaul, and even Wright (he has cancer) are all retirement possibilities as well.

This is a delight to watch.