CBS/NYT: Romney up 3

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If a CBS Poll showed Obama seven points ahead, then all the liberals on this forum would be saying, "Makes sense". But if a CBS Poll shows Romney three points ahead, they say, "Outlier".

I've seen three national polls in the last few days since Obama's gay marriage "evolution", and they've shown Romney +7, Romney +8 and Romney +3, respectively. But of course they're all outliers, right?

Will you please be quiet...

I think most reasonable people would look at this poll and say "there is no way the gender and age gap closed up that quickly or that comprehensively".

Exactly the same as the NH poll which has Obama up 12%... the cross tabs don't make sense there and I'm happy to discount a bunk poll that shows Obama ahead, just as easily as I'm dismissing this, because the cross tabs not only go against the general trends, they also go against common sense.

Please understand that not EVERYTHING is based on political allegiance and common sense needs to factor here.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm happy to listen when there's common sense involved (and before you start no I don't define common sense as agreeing with me)... having been around long enough, if you can honestly look at that poll, away from the headline figures and tell me that those cross-tabs make sense and Romney has turned around a 15-16% deficit among women to a 2% lead... (considering Bush lost women by 3% and that was considered herculean)... if you can honestly say that the detail behind those headline figures are reasonable... go nuts.

Otherwise... yeah, it's a bunk poll and there will be HUNDREDS of bunks polls until Labor Day going both ways and we need to vigilant to not put too much stock into them.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The thing is, it's not that farfetched to assume Romney actually did close the gender gap. Santorum is no longer pulling Romney to the right and the Rosen controversy probably helped Romney win some support from mothers who would have otherwise been complacent.

Moreover, a lot of recent North American elections have shown huge swings in polling. Momentum shifts overnight and candidates surge. We frequently saw it in the primaries. It happened against the Wild Rose folks in Alberta's provincial election. It happened with the NDP surge in Canada's '11 federal election. For whatever reason, numbers swing fast. So why can't Romney be winning women?

A nearly 20% swing in a period of a fortnight?

I really think you're reaching here, is it impossible for Romney to be leading among women? No, of course not - but it's highly, highly improbable.

You clearly think the only reason I think it's dodgy is because of a preference for Obama... it's really not. I think it's dodgy because it makes virtually no statistical common sense.

I do understand what it's like to see your people leading in a national poll... and trying to desperately defend it regardless... but this isn't the poll do it.