Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'd rather we got to another election than work with the Greens.

But if Labor's coffers are close to empty, which I think they will likely be, and other reasons, they likely will have to in some confidence and supply scheme.

They really seem damned if they do, damned if they don't either way.

Huh? Confidence and supply is largely a formality. The only way for a Government to form is for the Governor General to be assured that the Government can undertake the basic functions of Government. Some cross-benchers, like Wilkie have said they'd not undertake a formal arrangement, but would guarantee supply.

We'll see what the Labor costings are showing later this month.

Also (insert all caveats about basically released internal electorate polling)... a poll out of the PM's seat is showing him at 58-42 TPP, down from 68-32 in 2013.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Labor needs ~51%-ish on the national 2PP to win, right?

It also seems to me that the NXT is likelier to hold the balance of power after the election than the Greens are, especially in the House but possibly in the Senate as well.

If Labor's primary is below 38 they probs won't win in their own right.

Yeah - the ALP primary needs to be above 38.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'd rather we got to another election than work with the Greens.

Wow, really?

That reminds me, it's a good time to mention that one of the advantages to voting out the Coalition will be saving millions of dollars on a pointless, non-binding, divisive plebiscite on equal rights.

There's a lot of people within the ALP who believe that the alliance with the Greens is what killed the Gillard Government (hello Carbon Price). I disagree, and I think that we need to work closer on those issues where we can find common ground. But there's a strong view that the Greens are electoral poison in middle-Australia.

And, absolutely - it's a good argument too. "Vote Labor and save over half a billion dollars in direct and indirect costs"

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes! Chaser is back, love those guys

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TNMT39Ux4XE

My favourite part is that Tanya still has the rat.

Her children named it Harry

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Pretty terrible interview on ABC Radio National from Adam Bandt condemning Labor for getting a deal with the Libs that they were trying to get. This puts a pretty significant dent in the Green's aspirations for anything beyond retaining Melbourne.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Pretty terrible interview on ABC Radio National from Adam Bandt condemning Labor for getting a deal with the Libs that they were trying to get. This puts a pretty significant dent in the Green's aspirations for anything beyond retaining Melbourne.

Terrible as in Bandt embarrassed himself, or terrible as in accusatory?

The former.

Shorten was fantastic on Q&A and dealt with Jones continual interruptions pretty well.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Apparently the Liberals are out spending Labor 5 to 1.

Not surprising, that's the payment of big companies and wealthy people for the tax cuts.

Not surprising - at my last party meeting, we were sitting there agog at the amount of money the Libs have been throwing to protect Zed.

There was also that weird situation where the Libs paid twice as much for showing just as many ads as Labor had. It's funny, I mean, I think it has more to do with the Libs dumping their ads into prime time, where its more expensive, but still, oddly appropriate

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The separation between perception and reality on economic performance is stunning, but not surprising.

The SINGLE biggest error made by Rudd on economics, was promising to match Howard's promised tax cuts. It hurt revenue just before the GFC hit. I think without the GFC, it would have been easier for Labor to start the post-mining adjustment to the economy. The other issue is that since 2007, Labor basically never talks about the economy, because the conventional wisdom is that any day talking about the economy is good for the Coalition.

That's a default position for all left of centre political parties. People instinctively look to conservatives as being "good" at economics and good at balancing books, despite the evidence being across the world that the centre-left is considerably better at handling 'the economy'.

People look at the Howard/Costello era as being generally economically good. Which on most metrics, it was. But, instead of investment in infrastructure or saving or sovereign wealth, that money was pumped into unnecessary tax cuts and wasted on massive increases to middle-class welfare, with NO plan as to what to do once the mining revenues slowed down. So Labor inherited a double-whammy, the GFC hitting in the first year followed by the mining boom revenues starting to slow. So that meant Labor was left to deal with increasing expenditures from necessary stimulus measures, ongoing middle-class welfare arrangements and now unaffordable tax cuts AND reducing government revenue.

Doomed.

Also, the elements that Ebowed is talking about is important, but doesn't form part of the general discussion - people want headline figures. Basically, Labor needed a good economic run, to be able to not get bashed on economic management. The Libs were lucky and Labor were not.

The thing is on Youth Unemployment... a) the Liberals don't rely on the youth vote b) their parents are likely to think well, "jobs and growth" that'll probably come through soon enough.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I will have more to say tomorrow, but generally, I think there's a lot more going on under the surface on this one than meets the eye. My call from day one was a hung Parliament, and it remains so.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If NSW ReachTel polling is accurate, it's too late for the Lib and I think they'll lose govt.

I don't think we can put too much stock into those polls, largely because they're single-electorate polls and they're union commissioned and released. Having said that...

My current prediction...

LNP: 73
ALP: 70
GRN: 2
OTH: 5 (Katter, Wilkie, McGowan, Windsor, NXT Mayo) (But I really wouldn't be shocked at the idea of Katter losing and Joyce hanging on)

Primaries
LNP: 41%
ALP: 36%
GRN: 10%
OTH: 13%

TPP
ALP: 51.1%
LNP: 48.9%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Grayndler? Also isn't losing it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I keep thinking the CFA thing is more of a 'beltway' fascination... I don't see this being a decisive issues one way or another.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

About the election broadly... I have this weird sense that either Turnbull will win relatively cleanly or there's some kind of weird polling-related conventional-wisdom upset coming.

The CPG has had layer, after layer of conventional wisdom about the Turnbull ascension pulled out from under them. When the polls are still this close, they're declaring a fait accompli ... Labor's primary vote is too low for a win, but for God's sake. The CPG has the Atlas malady, they'd rather predict something first, than do it properly.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I notice that Don Farrell thinks he's the Comeback Kid and has preselected himself 2nd on the South Australian senate ticket, relegating incumbent left-winger (and Emily's List convener) Anne McEwen to the (probably) unwinnable 4th spot.

Farrell is a creep and Feeney is just as bad.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My final prediction will be sometime on Saturday afternoon, once I'm back from the booth.

However. My current prediction has shifted a little since last week (giving the Government a small TPP win, but not being able to command a complete majority, but I still cannot shake this idea that the conventional wisdom is wrong.

Seats
LNP: 75
ALP: 68
GRN: 2
OTH: 5

Primary
LNP: 42%
ALP: 35%
GRN: 9%
OTH: 14%

TPP
LNP: 50.4%
ALP: 49.6%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Any predictions for Senate?

Mess?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The other thing to remember is that so far, 2.6 million have already voted. It's expected to be closer to 3.5 million by the end of more than two weeks of early/postal voting by 6pm Friday.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Questions for my fellow Australians. Taking off your psephological/analytical hat am I the only one who still thinks something feels 'off' about the conventional wisdom about this one? I don't think for a second that Turnbull is acting or messaging like someone who has this won.

I mean, I don't think Labor will win more seats that the LNP but I really do think this is line-ball and there are a lot of variables ....

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

IF we are to give Labor the seats that are notionally theirs after the NSW re-dist they're on 57 (55 -1 +3). The magic number is 76 for form government. The two x-factors here are NXT in SA and Windsor/Oakeshott in NSW.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Another think... I do think the capacity for an upset is still there, but the momentum in the last 3-4 days has absolutely shifted in the Government's favour. Labor might have answered question one well, the problems with Turnbull and his policies, BUT they just didn't demonstrate to middle Australia a strong enough case that they'd be better.

I'll do a final, final prediction tomorrow afternoon, around 4-5pm.

But I'll try a seat by seat estimation of changes.

NSW.

ALP -> LNP 0 (but watch for Parramatta and Kingsford Smith)
LNP -> ALP - Eden-Monaro, Page, Barton, Dobell, Paterson (already notionally Labor), Macarthur, Macquarie (7, but net of 4)
LNP -> IND - Cowper (1) New England will be VERY close, but I think if Joyce's primary vote is 45%+ he'll be OK.

That's a net loss of 5 for the LNP in NSW, including post-redistribution

QLD

ALP -> LNP - 0 but watch for Moreton
LNP -> ALP - Petrie, Capricornia, Forde(3) - but Brisbane and Bonner could ABSOLUTELY happen
PUP -> LNP - Fairfax

Net loss of 2 for the LNP in QLD

VIC

ALP -> LNP - 0 but watch for Bruce
LNP -> ALP - 0 but Deakin is a chance
ALP -> GRN - Batman (but I really think this will be one of the closest races in VIC. If Feeney's primary vote remains in first and is around 36-38% he should get home.
LIB -> GRN - Watch Higgins... I think it's going to be close.

Net loss of 1 for the ALP in VIC

TAS - this state makes so little sense to me... none.

ALP -> LNP 0
LNP -> ALP - Braddon (but a really strong chance for Lyons) 1

Net gain of 1 for the ALP in TAS

SA

ALP -> LNP - 0 (Adelaide will be close-ish)
LNP -> ALP - Hindmarsh 1  (off the back of NXT preferences)
LNP -> NXT - Mayo, Barker 2 (watch for Grey)

Net loss of 3 for the LNP in SA

NT

ALP -> LNP - 0
LNP -> ALP - Solomon 1

Net loss of 1 for the LNP in NT

WA

ALP -> LNP - 0
LNP -> ALP - Burt, Cowan (good shot at Husluck and watch for Pearce) 2

Net loss of 2 for the LNP in NT
 

So, based off the new Parliament numbers
LNP 88 -> 74
ALP 57 -> 68
GRN 1 -> 2
Cross-bench 4 -> 6 (-Palmer + Oakeshott and 2 x NXT)

Hung Parliament

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What are the odds we see a 2015 QLD redux here, where most polls were tied or gave a narrow LNP edge and most everyone expected the LNP to pull it out despite their absolutely toxic term in office but in the end Labor managed to squeak ahead b/c of stronger-than-anticipated preference flows? Or have the polling issues from that election been resolved?

That's because QLD had optional preferential, and unless you were voting Labor first preference, you weren't really voting for them, even Green preferences only flowed 60% to them.

This is different, BUT I do think preference flows will be a big factor here because the mix of 'others' will be different this time and respondent allocated polling is better for the ALP than the 2013 flows. So it has to be considered as an important variable.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The decision will likely be clear by 6am your time. I expect we'll have a clear idea once a decent whack of the WA vote is in, so 10-10:30pm EST.

QLD doesn't observe daylight savings.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Alright...

I'm going to stick with my prediction from yesterday of a hung parliament. But it feels very strange and unsettled out there. Basically no outcome short of a large Labor win would shock me. It feels like there are going to be surprises galore tonight.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

First exit poll has it at 50/50... this could be a really entertaining night regardless.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

PVO predicts a Coalition majority.

Shouldn't quite yet.