Australian Territory Elections, 2016

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Territories... yeah, I can't the CLP winning and I can't see the ALP lose the ACT, but more that I can't see the Libs win.

But the 5-5 seat electorates will throw some curveballs.

As I currently see the ACT

Kurrajong
3 ALP - 1 GRN - 1 Lib

Yeribee
2 ALP - 2 Libs - 1 GRN

Murrumbidgee
2 ALP - 2 Libs - 1 GRN

Brindabella
3 Lib - 1 ALP - 1 GRN

Ginninderra
2 ALP - 2 Lib - 1 GRN

So currenly

10 ALP 10 Lib 5 Grn

Lab/Grn coalition government

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The election is in a month... if they weren't already doomed, they are now.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What's the highest TPP result in an Australian election?  I have a feeling that record might be shattered next month...

I know that the NT election is optional preferences so a TPP figure is less accurate, but its still nice to have and I'm pretty sure that its in the right ballpark usually.  Might OPV actually end up helping Labor in this election?  It certainly won't hurt them quite as much in other areas (the Greens haven't done as well here in the past and those are the preferences that exhaust in other optional preferential areas), and it wouldn't surprise me if there are a fair few normally conservative people who would normally preference the CLP (or even give them their first preferences) who simply don't bother this time and let their vote exhaust rather than flow to the CLP...

QLD 2012 was 62.8%, NSW 2011 was 64.2%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ugh... indeed. Corrected.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-29/nt-opposition-calls-for-chief-minister-adam-giles-to-resign/7673244

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We're a week out from the NT election... bloodbath still expected.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There's been a second 64-36 TPP poll out of the NT.

What's kind of hilarious, is that NT has optional preferential, with the CLP primary at 24%... it might be lucky to hit 36% TPP at this rate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The count is going to start shortly. Giles is deep trouble in his own seat with a near 20% margin

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

ABC tech issues are funny. Just heard Antony Green say "Giles is getting flogged on preferences"

Lol.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

These results are hilarious

They truly are. So far the ABC comp can only give the CLP one seat...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nope, well I don't

Antony Green confirms the obvious, Labor will form the next Government

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ABC Comp is predicting

ALP - 18
CLP - 3
IND - 4

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Why was the swing in Spillett so weak compared to elsewhere?

Also Labor to sweep Alice Springs? Has that ever happened before?

Not in Territory elections but it did happen in the Fed election.

Spillett is weird, one can only think that it was an area that responded well to sand-bagging.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

ACT election is on Saturday.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/act-election-2016/guide/preview/

The general vibe around the place is that while people are irritated and bored with Labor, the chance of the Liberals gaining the 13 seats required for Government is quite small.

It IS possible that the Liberals will win the most seats and votes, but given the Greens have pledged to not form Government with the Libs, Labor will most likely form Government.

My current prediction
Kurrajong
Lab 2 Libs 2 Grn 1
Ginninderra
Labor 2 Libs 2 1?
Yerrabi
Labor 2 Libs 2 1?
Murrumbidgee
Labor 2 Libs 2 Grn 1
Brindabella
Lab 2 Libs 3

Needed - 13
Labor - 10
Liberals - 11
Greens -2
?? - 2

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Labor has likely won, with a shock swing against the Liberals

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Seems as though the Sex Party very, very narrowly missed out (and could still win) on a seat in Brindabella, where they got 9% of the vote (coming in third, ahead of the Greens at just 5%), even as they either didn't run candidates or were hopelessly minor elsewhere. Why did this happen? None of the pre-election write-ups seemed to address it, and their candidates there aren't notable enough for Wikipedia write-ups.

The Sex Party focused all of its energy and resources into Brindabella... that's pretty much it. No one really knew where the races were... given there were no public polls and Labor at least stopped private polling about 5-6 weeks ago to focus resources on advertising. No one saw the Libs going backwards in their "best" seat...