Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sorry to interrupt, but this NT preselection seems to be blowing up in Gillard's face.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/national/they-dont-know-me-peris-fights-back/story-fndor8bb-1226560425173

I think it's a big deal for the media... time will tell if it will filter down.

Personally, I don't think it was the best move.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think there's a chance some smoke being blown...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So September 25. Surprised she's calling it this early, a nine month campaign, yay.....

14 September...

It's actually a brilliant move...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So September 25. Surprised she's calling it this early, a nine month campaign, yay.....

14 September...

It's actually a brilliant move...

How?

Gillard knows Abbott's policy bank is pretty bare and his costings simply don't add up... seriously, look at what little we know... they don't.

It forces Abbott into a policy and costings war LONG before he's ready for it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Abbott's major policy, so far as I can tell, is Balance & Repeal. Is there anything else of note?

On another note, Swan's silly Republisquirrel.

That's the problem... Abbott needed the carbon tax to end the world for it to still be potent 2 years down the track... and it really isn't.

Basic question, if you're going to balance things... what is getting cut to do it? How do you keep the carbon compensation and pension increases... without the carbon pricing revenue? Abbott's been avoiding answering these kinds of questions for months, because he doesn't know the answer.

He knows the carbon price is here to stay, especially with the deal made with the EU, it's going to cost a lot more to repeal it, than to keep it. He can't say that and win...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If we're talking '96 style cuts then Abbott and this bunch certainly aren't the ones to do that. Another way might be slowly cutting the rate. But I'm not one for pessimism, even if it'll take a long time one shouldn't give up.

You've got too much faith in Abbott. He's got a long history of saying what he needs.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Two unexpected departures... Senator Chris Evans will be resigning from Cabinet tomorrow and the Senate in two months AND it's breaking that the Attorney-General may also be resigning from Cabinet and also will not seek re-election in September.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Roxon resigning is a major loss for Labor and Australia.

Why?

I don't think so... but that's just me.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

She's rather granola-ish, amirite?

Oh God, yes, she's of the left... but not rampantly so...

I'm not a fan of her because she's personally quite unpleasant.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Isn't Roxon a member of the Right?

Actually, you're right.

She has quite left-wing views, but in many ways, she's old-school labor, albeit with a left-social bent.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It wasn't wise... it's a judgement call.

God help me for saying this... sigh...

I agree with Alan Jones. He was interviewed last night and said "if she wanted Peris in the Senate so badly, why not move her to WA, where she knew Chris Evans was going to stand down a year ago"... it's hard not to agree with the logic.

As for Snowdon, a friend is an adviser in his office and I don't know if he lives in Alice full time... he seems to spend an awful lot of time there.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Rumbles about a challenge against Gillard in March...


A friend of mine this morning told me that Simon Crean, a BIG supporter of Gillard had dinner with Rudd and other Rudd backers last night. I then saw this was in a news story this afternoon.

Also other friends in Labor MP offices tell me that there are certainly 'informal discussions' going on.

I think they know March is their last chance...


EDIT: same people tell me Gillard's lost a lot of support since last February. She'd win a leadership ballot, but it would be too close and wound fatally wound her AND them.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

"We aren't sure who we want as leader: depends who has better poll numbers on a given day."

Well, the numbers at the moment internally aren't as universally bad as the public polling, I'm told. But they're down where it matters.

What I think would be the preferred situation is for Gillard to know a challenge is coming, but knowing that she'd win it by a margin that is so tight that her position would be untenable. Knowing that it would cripple the party electorally, she'd step down voluntarily so to avoid said blood-bath.

But because there is a core of the parliamentary party who can't stand Rudd, the likelihood of this scenario happening without similar levels of damage is small.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

You really think Rudd's numbers would hold once the shine wears off and everyone remembers why he was ousted to begin with? Plus the optics of restoring an overthrown leader, one who's already been publicly nuked (*coughSwancough*) by some of his party's most influential people? I certainly don't think so. Ads go up, numbers go down, yet again people start pining for a switch. Gillard has to take the bullet, like Howard in 2007.

You're not thinking the way the Australian people thought of him. He was still relatively popular when he was dumped AND people see him as a wronged man, they don't see the revelations from a year ago as a bad thing for Rudd. Despite him being an ill-mannered, micromanaging prick. If there's one thing Australians can't stand, it's when they see someone being treated (as they see it) unfairly. Do I think that'll hold until an election... honestly? Yes. That's if any transition is handled well.

Which I doubt will happen, because I don't think there's the balls to challenge Gillard right now, and their window is closing.

What's the fate of the carbon tax in the event the Liberal-led coalition under Abbott regain power?  I presume they will at least try to repeal it -will they succeed?  What's the likelihood?  

Virtually none. They'll still have a largely unfriendly Senate, I don't see them gaining enough seats to even allow the 2014 Senate make up to help them. Plus the costs of undoing the carbon pricing scheme and back-pedaling out of the deal with the EU are very high.

I'll make a potentially bold prediction, if Abbott wins, he'll tinker with the carbon price, but he won't get rid of it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Welll....

Christine Milne decided to announce that the official alliance between the ALP and the Greens (the Watermelon Coalition) is effectively over.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-19/milne-says-labor-has-reneged-on-agreement/4527252

They'll continue to guarantee supply... but this just puts a lot more pressure on Gillard. It doesn't actually make a lot practical difference... but the optics are terrible.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I spoke to a friend in the ALP whom I trust and the mood in the party is truly terrible. Not only is it terrible, but there is a total sense of resignation to their fate. Basically, their view is that people have stopped listening.

But as Malcolm Turnbull said on Q&A this week, 'the hatred of Rudd is strong than their sense of political survival'...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Thankfully that'll never fly in Australia... And I have a hard enough time liking anyone enough to vote for.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think a LOT of this comes down to Western Sydney being VERY different to what it was 15 years ago. Personally, Garrett's seat is a lot safer (it goes in a uniform swing, but the swing won't be uniform) than a couple of those Western Sydney seats.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

TED IS GONE!!

Who'd a thunk that at the end of today Terry Mills is still Chief Minister in the NT and Ted Baillieu is gone?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My view is (assuming things don't change) they'll lose 6-10 seats.

This government needs a circuit-breaker. Now, were I not sure that Abbott would be a terrible PM (and leading a Government without a positive agenda of their own), I would be willing for the end of this self-flagellating government.

I'm almost the point where I'm praying (and not being a religious man) for Turnbull to roll Abbott and put all questions of the result away. At least that's a leader I could deal with relatively happily.

Melodramatic? Yes.

But this will be an important couple of weeks...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Labor will lose about 12 seats federally is it continues the way it's going.

And you agreed with the notion that there would not be much change in the Western Australian Election.

While I think a change to Rudd could change the direction they're heading in... but for how long? Who knows?

I think it's the ALP brand that's the problem...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ALP brand also held all state and territories and the federal government not that long ago.

The branding isn't the issue, it's just that the Libs have woken up to what people want in their state governments, and Labor had been in for too long. The federal party obviously contributed to these recent results, but in the leftish states, labor is still competitive or ahead in the polls at state/territory level.

Not sure what my point is other than that Labor is far from dead. Greens might be dying, though.

I'm not saying that the ALP is dead... because it's not. Buuuuttt... while there might be some areas where they're doing well, the ACT and VIC for example, the ALP brand is damaged in a lot of places, especially those places where seats need to be won. Look at QLD or NSW... let alone what just happened in WA.

However, the size of the swings against the Greens in the ACT (where they should have a natural foothold) and in WA tells you that more than likely, as I've been arguing  for ages... 2010 was their high water-mark.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll is interesting ...

Gillard regains preferred PM title, the ALP primary is up to 34% and the Coalitions down to 44% for a 52-48% TPP.

However... the NP also shows a return to Rudd would shift the ALP primary to 47 and drop the Coalition to 39%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well yes, all with my caveat on election year polling.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

14 May - it's difficult to tell if there will be some kind of election-year goodies. I'm expecting something small. There will probably be something to flesh out an existing policy or announcement, which is the usual tactic when money is tight.